Direct-to-Consumer 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table Of Contents 1.0 Executive Overview..................................................................................................................... 8 $14 Billion Direct to Consumer Supplement Sales by Channel in 2015....................................9 1.1 Executive Summary: Directly connected ........................................................................................9 $14 Billion Direct to Consumer Supplement Sales by Product in 2015...................................11 Direct Channel Supplement Sales Growth by Product, 2008-2015 .........................................12 1.2 Directly personal ..............................................................................................................................12 Supplement Sales Growth by Product, 2016e-2020e................................................................13 Direct Channel Supplement Sales by Product, 2008-2015........................................................13 1.3 A direct line to direct-to-consumer ...............................................................................................14 Direct Channel Supplement Sales by Product, 2016e-2020e ...................................................15 Direct Channel vs. Retail Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2015......................17 Direct Channel vs. Retail Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2016e-2020e..................17 1.4 Soylent 2.0 ........................................................................................................................................18 Direct Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2020 .....................................................19 Supplement Sales Growth by Channel, 2008-2015 ...................................................................20 Supplement Growth by Channel, 2016e-2020e ........................................................................20 Supplement Sales by Channel, 2008-2015 .................................................................................21 Supplement Sales by Channel, 2016e-2020e .............................................................................21 Top Direct-to-Consumer Nutrition Industry Company List, 2015 ............................................23 2.0 Multi-Level Marketing............................................................................................................... 24 2.1 Direct marketing with a digital edge ...........................................................................................25 Herbs and Botanicals MLM Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2015 .................25 Herbs and Botanicals MLM Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2016e-2020e .............25 2.2 Still lurching, still lucrative ............................................................................................................26 $16.2 Billion MLM Channel Supplement Market by Product Category, 2015........................26 Meal Replacement MLM Channel Sales and Growth, 2008-2015 ...........................................27 Meal Replacement MLM Channel Sales and Growth, 2016e-2020e.......................................27 Mineral MLM Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2015 ........................................28 Mineral MLM Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2016e-2020e....................................28 MLM Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2015.......................................................29 MLM Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2016e-2020e ..................................................29 © 2016 Penton www.nutritionbusinessjournal.comitionbusinessjo rnal.com 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Specialty MLM Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2015 ......................................30 Specialty MLM Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2016e-2020e ..................................30 Sports Nutrition MLM Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2015..........................31 Sports Nutrition MLM Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2016e-2020e......................31 2.3 Leveraging the face to face ............................................................................................................32 MLM Channel Herbs and Botanicals Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2020e ...............32 MLM Channel Meal Replacement Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2020e ...................33 2.4 Big scam on campus? ......................................................................................................................34 MLM Channel Mineral Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2020e......................................35 MLM Channel Specialty Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2020e ....................................36 MLM Channel Sports Nutrition Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2020e........................38 2.5 Essential oils find their way ...........................................................................................................39 MLM Channel Supplement Sales by Product, 2008-2020e.......................................................39 MLM Channel Vitamin Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2020e......................................40 Vitamin MLM Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2015........................................41 Vitamin MLM Supplement Sales and Growth, 2016e-2020e...................................................41 3.0 The Internet................................................................................................................................ 43 3.1 Online and engaged, but not always connected .......................................................................44 3.2 “Wild West” to “Whack-a-Mole” ...................................................................................................45 $2.5 Billion Internet Channel by Product Category in 2015.....................................................45 Herbs and Botanicals Internet Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2016-2020e ..........46 Herbs and Botanicals Internet Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2015 ............46 Internet Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2015..................................................47 Internet Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2016e-2020e .............................................47 Meal Replacement Internet Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2015 ................48 Meal Replacement Internet Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2016e-2020e............48 3.3 iNutrition ..........................................................................................................................................49 Mineral Internet Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2015 ...................................50 Mineral Internet Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2016e-2020e...............................50 3.4 A fine mess in the fine print ..........................................................................................................52 Specialty Internet Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2015 .................................52 Specialty Internet Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2016e-2020e .............................52 Sports Nutrition Internet Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2015.....................53 Sports Nutrition Internet Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2016e-2020e.................53 © 2016 Penton www.nutritionbusinessjournal.comitionbusinessjo rnal.com 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Internet Channel Herbs and Botanicals Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2020e ..........54 Internet Channel Meal Replacement Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2020e ..............55 3.5 Beyond brick and mortar ................................................................................................................56 Internet Channel Mineral Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2020e.................................57 Internet Channel Specialty Supplement Sales and Growth, ...................................................58 3.6 RealDose does digital direct right .................................................................................................60 Internet Channel Sports Nutrition Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2020e ..................61 Internet Channel Supplement Sales and Growth by Product, 2008-2020e............................62 Vitamin Internet Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2015...................................63 Vitamin Internet Channel Supplement Sales and Growth, 2016e-2020e...............................63 Internet Channel Vitamin Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2020e.................................64 4.0 Mail, Radio and TV..................................................................................................................... 65 4.1 Connecting with distracted demographics ..................................................................................66 Herbs and Botanicals Mail Order, DRTV/Radio Channel Sales and Growth, 2008-2015 .......66 Herbs and Botanicals Mail Order, DRTV/Radio Channel Sales and Growth, 2016e-2020e ...66 4.2 On thin air ........................................................................................................................................67 $1.9 Billion Mail Order DRTV/Radio, Channel by Product Category in 2015 .........................67 Mail Order, DRTV/Radio Channel Meal Replacement Supplement Sales and Growth, 2008-2020e .................................................................................................................................68