The automotive industry and the environment A technical, business and social future Paul Nieuwenhuis and Peter Wells Cambridge, England Published by Woodhead Publishing Limited, Abington Hall, Abington Cambridge CB1 6AH, England www.woodhead-publishing.com Published in North America by CRC Press LLC, 2000 Corporate Blvd, NW Boca Raton FL 33431, USA First published 2003, Woodhead Publishing Ltd and CRC Press LLC © 2003, Woodhead Publishing Ltd The authors have asserted their moral rights. This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reprinted material is quoted with permission, and sources are indicated. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the authors and the publishers cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials. 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Woodhead Publishing ISBN 1 85573 713 2 CRC Press ISBN 0-8493-2072-0 CRC Press order number: WP2072 Typeset by SNP Best-set Typesetter Ltd., Hong Kong Printed by TJ International, Cornwall, England Contents Abbreviations and glossary . viii 1 Introduction . 1 1.1 Background . 1 1.2 Change and complexity – can business really afford to keep things simple? . 2 1.3 Identifying the problem . 4 1.4 Roots of the problem . 6 1.5 The CO2 issue – agenda for change . 13 1.6 References . 14 2 The structure of the automotive industry . 15 2.1 The automotive industry: a profile . 15 2.2 The vehicle manufacturers . 16 2.3 Material and component suppliers . 22 2.4 Distribution and retailing . 25 2.5 Financial performance, structure and the future . 28 2.6 The direction of the industry: the case of Ford . 29 2.7 Conclusions . 32 2.8 References . 32 3 Markets and the demand for cars . 34 3.1 Introduction . 34 3.2 The structure of production and markets . 35 3.3 Fragmentation . 37 3.4 Brands and the market for alternative technology vehicles . 41 iv Contents 3.5 Environment, technology and the creation of new market segments: the example of the TH!NK @bout London project . 45 3.6 Conclusions . 48 3.7 References . 48 4 From manufacturers to responsible mobility providers . 50 4.1 Background . 50 4.2 The EU ELV directive – forcing manufacturers to take a whole-life view . 51 4.3 Selling the package: a wider view of costs . 51 4.4 The car industry responds to the new agenda . 55 4.5 Corporate social and environmental responsibility . 58 4.6 Conclusions . 60 4.7 References . 60 5 Sector shift, inter-sector dynamics and futures studies . 62 5.1 Introduction: the question of sector shift . 62 5.2 Futures and multi-discipline thinking . 64 5.3 Sustainability and multi-discipline thinking . 66 5.4 Management science, business strategy and the cult of the guru . .67 5.5 The automotive industry: an illustration . 68 5.6 Micro factory retailing: a futures studies vision of the automotive industry . 69 5.7 Conclusions . 70 5.8 References . 70 6 Powertrain and fuel . 73 6.1 How petrol and diesel came to rule the world . 73 6.2 The gaseous alternative . 75 6.3 Liquefied petroleum gas vs. compressed natural gas . 78 6.4 Dimethyl Ether (DME) and biodiesel: diesel’s future? . 79 6.5 Whatever happened to the electric car? . 82 6.6 The Air Car – a green car at last? . 84 6.7 References . 86 7 Fuel cells and the hydrogen economy . 87 7.1 The car industry goes for the hard cell . 87 7.2 The role of Ballard . 89 7.3 Fuelling the cell . 90 7.4 AUTOnomy – reinventing the chassis to fit the cell . 94 7.5 A future for the cell? . 97 7.6 References . 98 Contents v 8 High volume car production: Budd and Ford . 100 8.1 Introduction and background . 100 8.2 History . 101 8.3 Budd and Ford . 106 8.4 ZIS: Budd goes East . 107 8.5 Monocoque construction . 107 8.6 Buddism fraying at the edges . 110 8.7 Steel fights back . 111 8.8 References . 114 9 Alternatives to high volume car production . 116 9.1 Introduction . 116 9.2 Alternative approaches to car production . 117 9.3 Sports cars: niche vs. mainstream vehicle manufacturers . 121 9.4 Examples of low volume car production . 124 9.5 Conclusions . 127 9.6 References . 128 10 Sustainability . 129 10.1 The sustainability concept . 129 10.2 An ethical and spiritual dimension . 134 10.3 Nature and the closed-loop economy . 137 10.4 References . 139 11 Sustainable mobility . 141 11.1 Making cars sustainable: a blueprint . 141 11.2 Product durability and scrappage incentives . 143 11.3 New product niches . 148 11.4 Closed-loop recycling . 152 11.5 References . 154 12 Practical steps towards sustainability . 156 12.1 Introduction . 156 12.2 Alternative approaches to evaluating the environmental burden of cars . 156 12.3 Official and unofficial vehicle emissions and fuel economy guides . 160 12.4 The Volvo environmental product declaration (EPD) . 162 12.5 Vehicle assembly plant rating systems . 163 12.6 Car environmental rating systems . 164 12.7 Conclusion . 172 12.8 References . 172 vi Contents 13 Automobility 2050 – the vision . 174 13.1 Introduction . 174 13.2 A sustainable world: the context for automobility 2050 . 176 13.3 Automobility 2050: making cars . 179.