Luas Broombridge Updated Detailed Business Case 9th November 2012 1 of 145 Luas Broombridge Updated Detailed Business Case Updated Detailed Business Case Version 01 Date 9th November 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................... 7 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 7 1.2 Background ................................................................................................... 7 1.3 Project Definition ........................................................................................... 8 1.4 Transport Planning ...................................................................................... 10 1.5 Capital Costing ............................................................................................ 11 1.6 Risk ............................................................................................................. 11 1.7 Economic Appraisal .................................................................................... 11 1.8 Project Finance and Cashflows ................................................................... 12 1.9 Procurement Strategy ................................................................................. 13 1.10 Programme and Way Forward .................................................................... 13 2 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................... 14 2.1 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................... 14 2.2 Light Rail in Dublin ...................................................................................... 14 2.3 Land Use and Transport Policy ................................................................... 17 2.3.1 Medium Term Exchequer Framework ................................................ 17 2.3.2 Transport 21 ...................................................................................... 17 2.3.3 National Development Plan ................................................................ 18 2.3.4 Smarter Travel ................................................................................... 18 2.3.5 National Spatial Strategy .................................................................... 19 2.3.6 Regional Planning Guidelines ............................................................ 19 2.3.7 2030 vision ......................................................................................... 19 2.3.8 Dublin City Development Plan 2011 – 2017 ....................................... 20 2.3.9 Dublin – A City of Possibilities ............................................................ 21 2.3.10 Grangegorman Development Agency Strategic Plan 2011 ................ 21 2.4 Conclusions ................................................................................................ 22 3 PROJECT DEFINITION ....................................................................................... 23 3.1 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................... 23 3.2 Project Needs and Objectives ..................................................................... 24 3.2.1 Promote Economic Growth ................................................................ 24 3.2.2 Reduce the Cost of Congestion ......................................................... 25 3.2.3 Integrate the Public Transport Network .............................................. 25 3.2.4 Increase the Commercial Success of Luas ........................................ 25 3.2.5 Facilitate Sustainable Development and Regeneration ...................... 26 3.2.6 Enhance the Public Realm ................................................................. 26 3.2.7 The outputs expected from the project ............................................... 26 Page 1 of 143 Luas Broombridge Updated Detailed Business Case Updated Detailed Business Case Version 01 Date 9th November 2012 3.3 Consideration of Bus-based Alternative ....................................................... 27 3.4 Identification of Preferred Route .................................................................. 29 3.5 Description of the Chosen Alignment ........................................................... 32 3.5.1 Area 1 ................................................................................................ 33 3.5.2 Area 2 ................................................................................................ 38 3.6 System Concept .......................................................................................... 40 3.7 Conclusions ................................................................................................. 40 4 TRANSPORT PLANNING .................................................................................... 43 4.1 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................... 43 4.2 Introduction ................................................................................................. 44 4.3 Overview ..................................................................................................... 45 4.4 Catchment Analysis of Luas Broombridge ................................................... 46 4.4.1 Introduction to Catchment Analysis .................................................... 46 4.4.2 Method and Results – Census Data ................................................... 46 4.4.3 Method and Results – Geodirectory ................................................... 48 4.5 Demand Analysis ........................................................................................ 50 4.5.1 Overview ............................................................................................ 50 4.5.2 Inputs and Assumptions ..................................................................... 50 4.5.3 Landuse Assumptions ........................................................................ 51 4.5.4 Moderate Growth Methodology .......................................................... 52 4.5.5 Infrastructure Assumptions ................................................................. 53 4.5.6 Base Case and Sensitivity Tests ........................................................ 53 4.5.7 Service Patterns ................................................................................. 54 4.6 Results ........................................................................................................ 58 4.6.1 Results Summary ............................................................................... 58 4.6.2 Base Case ......................................................................................... 59 4.6.3 Landuse Sensitivity Tests ................................................................... 62 4.6.4 Infrastructure Sensitivity Tests ........................................................... 66 4.7 Conclusions ................................................................................................. 74 5 CAPITAL COSTING ............................................................................................. 76 5.1 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................... 76 5.2 Methodology ................................................................................................ 76 5.2.1 Overview ............................................................................................ 76 5.2.2 Quality control and peer review .......................................................... 76 5.2.3 Estimating Approach .......................................................................... 76 5.2.4 Basis of Capital Cost Estimate ........................................................... 77 5.3 Results ........................................................................................................ 78 5.3.1 Total Direct Capital Costs ................................................................... 78 5.3.2 Total Direct plus Indirect Capital Costs ............................................... 80 5.3.3 Annual Capital Cost to Government (€ millions nominal) .................... 81 Page 2 of 143 Luas Broombridge Updated Detailed Business Case Updated Detailed Business Case Version 01 Date 9th November 2012 5.4 Conclusions ................................................................................................ 81 6 RISK .................................................................................................................... 82 6.1 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................... 82 6.2 Methodology ............................................................................................... 82 6.3 Risk Identification ........................................................................................ 82 6.3.1 Technical Risks .................................................................................. 83 6.3.2 Commercial Risks .............................................................................. 83 6.3.3 Risks relating to third parties .............................................................. 84 6.3.4 Project Management risks .................................................................. 84 6.3.5 Operational and maintenance risks ...................................................