ABOUT İRAM SAUDI – ISRAELI NEXUS: Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara is a non-prot research center IMPLICATIONS FOR IRAN dedicated to promoting innovative research and ideas on Iranian aairs. Our mission is to conduct in-depth research to produce up-to-date and accurate knowledge about Iran’s politics, economy and society. İRAM’s research agenda is guided by three key princi- ples – factuality, quality and responsibility. Arhama Siddiqa Muhammad Abbas Hassan Asad Ullah Khan Oğuzlar Mh. 1397. Sk. No: 14 06520 Çankaya, Balgat, Ankara, Turkey Phone: +90 312 284 55 02 - 03 Fax: +90 312 284 55 04 e-mail: [email protected] www.iramcenter.org All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted without the prior written permission of İRAM. Perspective May 2019 Copyright © 2019 Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara (İRAM). All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be fully reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed, published or broadcast without the prior written permission from İRAM. For electronic copies of this publication, visit iramcenter.org. Partial reproduction of the digital copy is possibly by giving an active link to www.iramcenter.org The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of İRAM, its staff, or its trustees. For electronic copies of this report, visit www. iramcenter.org. Editor : Serhan Afacan Graphic Design : Hüseyin Kurt Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara Oğuzlar, 1397. St, 06520, Çankaya, Ankara / Türkiye Phone: +90 (312) 284 55 02-03 | Fax: +90 (312) 284 55 04 e-mail : [email protected] | www.iramcenter.org Saudi – Israeli Nexus: Implications for Iran Suudi – İsrail İlişkilerinin İran’a Etkileri روابط عربستان سعودی و اسرائیل و پیامدهای آن برای ایران Arhama Siddiqa Arhama Siddiqa is a Research Fellow at The Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI). Her research areas are Middle East, Role of Major Powers in South Asia and Kashmir Dispute. Muhammad Abbas Hassan Muhammad Abbas Hassan is working as a Research Associate at The Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI). He has also taught at National Defence University and Bahria University Islamabad. His research areas include Middle East (West Asia), Terrorism and Maritime Security. Asad Ullah Khan Asad Ullah Khan is working as a Research Fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad. Mr. Khan’s area of research is National Security and Counter Terrorism. CONTENT Sumary .......................................................................................................................................... 3 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 4 Saudi-Israel Relationship: An Overview ...................................................................................... 5 Regional Implications .................................................................................................................... 8 1. Trade ..................................................................................................................................... 8 2. Palestinian Issue ..................................................................................................................... 8 3. Turkey versus the Kingdom .................................................................................................. 9 4. Implications for Iran ............................................................................................................. 9 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 9 References ................................................................................................................................. 10 iramcenter.org SUMMARY • The Middle East is a prime example for a new alliance formations and rapprochements. • A new rapprochement is observed between Israel and the Gulf States. • The improving relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia due to the mutual security concern is another example of newly established alliances. • Growing Saudi-Israeli ties and as a result better ties between the Gulf States and Tel Aviv indi- cate that Iran’s security buffer might be compromised. • These growing and newly established ties can also result in the deterioration of the relations between Ankara and Riyadh. Keywords: Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Middle East, Gulf States, Alliance ÖZET • Ortadoğu coğrafyası yeni ittifak oluşumlarına ve yakınlaşmalara örnek teşkil eden başlıca bölgedir. • İsrail ve Körfez ülkeleri arasında yeni yakınlaşmalar bu duruma örnek teşkil etmektedir. • İsrail ile Suudi Arabistan arasındaki ilişkilerin karşılıklı güvenlik kaygısı nedeniyle gelişmesi yeni kurulan ittifakların bir başka örneğidir. • Suudi-İsrail bağlarının gelişmesi ve buna bağlı olarak Körfez ülkeleri ile Tel Aviv arasında gelişen ilişkiler, İran’ın güvenlik tamponunun gelecekte tehlikeye girebileceği anlamına gelmektedir. • Büyüyen ve yeni kurulan bu bağlar Ankara ile Riyad arasındaki ilişkilerin bozulmasına neden olabilir. Anahtar Kelimeler: İran, Rusya, Suriye, Bölgesel Rekabet چكیده •جغرافیای خاورمیانه الگوی مهم در شکل گیری ائتﻻف ها و ایجاد روابط نزدیک میان قدرت ها است. •به عنوان مثال، ما اخیرا شاهد ایجاد روابط نزدیک بین اسرائیل و کشورهای حوزه خلیج هستیم. • توسعه روابط بین اسرائیل و عربستان سعودی به دلیل نگرانی های امنیتی متقابل، نمونه ای دیگری از ائتﻻف جدید است. •توسعه روابط میان عربستان سعودی-اسرائیل و کشورهای حوزه خلیج-تل آویو به این معنی است که منطقه حائل امنیتی ایران می تواند در آینده به خطر بیفتد. •ایجاد چنین روابط تازه تاسیس و رشد آن می تواند منجر به اختﻻل در روابط میان آنکارا و ریاض شود. كلید واژه ها: اسرائیل، عربستان سعودی، خاورمیانه، کشورهای خلیج فارس، اتحاد [email protected] 3 Saudi - Israeli Nexus: Implications for Iran Introduction However, the elephant in the room hampering open bonhomie is the fact that the Palestini- The world has transformed dramatically an-Israeli conflict remains an emotive anchor over the last decade, which has necessitated a with the Arab people, and relations with Israel change of strategy for many countries. More- will likely remain restricted without a substan- over, the realist school of thought which talks tial peace agreement. Israeli forces have killed about power and security has become more over hundreds of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip pronounced in the contemporary international amidst a deepening humanitarian crisis and the order. Even though globalization has entailed peace process has been frigid for years. Fur- interdependence, the fact remains that anarchy thermore, Palestinian President Mahmoud Ab- cannot be eclipsed and the notion that today’s bas severed links with the US after Washington friends can be tomorrow’s enemies perseveres. acknowledged Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and While military alliances are usually created to moved its embassy to the city. Nevertheless, the serve as a deterrent against a common threat, Palestinian conflict is the thorn on the path to groupings and alignments have surfaced for full public disclosure for the Gulf states and Is- economic gains and to deliver political inter- rael. ests. The Middle East is a prime example of alliance formations and rapprochements. An Saudi Arabia, the self-proclaimed leader of example is the US relationship with the YPG the Muslim world, and Israel lack formal dip- forces in Syria. While the US has declared the lomatic ties and their relationship is amassed in PKK in Turkey to be terrorists, it has been fight- decades of enmity. However, their mutual grat- ing on the ground in Syria alongside the YPG ification over Iranian public protests in Decem- 4 forces against the Islamic State (IS).1 Some may ber 2018 , was the latest sign of growing con- call this being hypocritical, others would call it verging political interests against their shared practical. regional rival: Iran. Israeli-Saudi ties have car- dinally improved in recent years primarily due Another example of the changing groupings to the shared security concern of incapacitating is Israel’s nascent relations with the Gulf states Iranian “imperialism” and possible nucleariza- which has caught the public attention, particu- tion. The developing partnership has been abet- larly the epochal visit in October by Prime ted and bolstered by the Trump administration, 2 Minister Netanyahu to Muscat , as well as calls which views both Israel and Saudi Arabia as by Bahraini officials endorsing Israel’s accept- paramount to achieving the American foreign 3 ance and regional integration. Israel along with policy goal of suppressing the Iranian regime. various Gulf Arab states believe that Iran is a Moreover, it is, in fact, the best kept secret in disrupting force, which interferes in conflicts West Asia that the two foremost Middle Eastern and supports rivals across the region through its partners of the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel, are proxies. However, as with every relationship, clandestine allies. Officially, they contemn each Israel-Gulf relations have reciprocity. While other; unofficially they are close affiliates. relations with the Gulf states would further put Iran in a corner, a relationship with Israel af- Over the decades, Saudi Arabia and Iran ties fords the Arab states to win favour with the US. have vacillated between nonchalance, hostility, and tension. Stemming from the domestic con- 1 Turkey says U.S. support for Syrian Kurdish YPG a “big mistake”, “Reuters” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-tur-