Report No. 3175EGT SomeIssues in Population FE Copy andHuman Resource Development in Egypt Public Disclosure Authorized May 12, 1981 Population and Human ResourcesDivision Development EconomicsDepartment FOR OFFICIAL USEONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Docurnentof the World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Thisdocument has a restricteddistribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties.Its contentsmay not otherwise be disclosedwithout World Bankauthorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS 1 Egyptian Pound (LE) US$1.43 1 US Dollar = LE 0.70 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES I hectare 2.38 feddans I feddan 1.04 acres 1 acre 0.96 feddans 1 square kilometer 238.00 feddans FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY SOME ISSUES IN POPULATION AND HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT IN EGYPT This report is based on the findings of a mission to Egypt in May-June 1979. Members of that mission and their principal assignments were: K. C. Zachariah, mission chief Susan H. Cochrane, deputy mission chief Khalid Ikram, liaison Catherine S. Pierce, health Mansour Oubouzar, education Richard H. Sabot, employment Zafer Ecevit, manpower Lance Taylor, macro economic issues (consultant) In addition to the above contributions, Amr Mohie El-Din (consultant) prepared a background paper on rural employment. We would like to thank Richard Herbert and Lac Khanh Truong for their editorial assistance and Kalpana Nandwani, Jane Armitage and Y. Boutros-Ghali for their research assistance. Mary Jeanne Bowman (consultant), Kemal Dervis, Hugo Diaz-Etchevehere, Graeme Donovan, Fredrick Golladay, Stephen Heyneman, Dean Jamison, Basil Kavalsky, Timothy King, Ann MacNamara, and Oey Meesook provided valuable comments and suggestions on earlier drafts of the report. In addition, many individuals within Egypt have provided help through the provision of data and insights into the population and human resource issues through formal and informal conversations. We would like to express our appreciation for their time and trouble. This docurent has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. SOME ISSUES IN POPULATION AND HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPNENT IN EGYPT TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. MAP 15288 INTRODUCTION AND CONCLUSIONS ............................... i - v I. AN OVERVIEW ............................................... 1 Susan H. Cochrane POPULATION PRESSURE .......... 2 THE DETERMINANTS OF POPULATION GROWTH ...................... 3 Fertility .......................................................... 3 Mortality .........................................0 .......*........ 5 REACTIVE STRATEGIES ................ ......................... 6 Food Imports ............................................. 6 Labor Export ................. .. .... ............................... 7 Educational Strategy ..................................... 10 STRATEGIES TO CONTROL POPULATION PRESSURE.................. 13 Land Expansion ...................................................... 14 Fertility and Family Planning ............................ 15 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .................... ................ 20 REFERENCES ................................................ 22 II- FERTILITY AND FAMILY PLANNING IN EGYPT: RECENT TRENDS AND DETERMINANTS .......................... 23 K. C. Zachariah SUMMARY .....................................................................23 INTRODUCTION .............................................. 26 FERTILITY LEVEL AND TRENDS .. 26 Deriving Fertility Measures .............................. 26 Fertility Trends .... ........................................ 27 FERTILITY DIFFERENTIALS AND THEIR DETERMINANTS .... ......... 32 Differentials ........................................... 32 Determinants of Fertility Differentials .................. 32 FUTURE FERTILITY ........................................... 38 REFERENCES ....................... ................. ....... 51 APPENDIX IIA THE FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAM: ITS DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACT ............ ....... 52 Susan H. Cochrane -2- Page No. III. THE MORTALITY AND HEALTH SITUATION IN EGYPT: RECENT TRENDS AND PATTERNS ....... ............................... 65 K. C. Zachariah and Catherine S. Pierce SUTMMARY ..... *. ................................. -65 RECENT MORTALITY PATTERNS ........ ... ............... ......... 69 Mortality Levels .......................................................... 69 Socioeconomic Differentials ..... .......................... 74 Future Trends . ...................... 75 THE HEALTH SITUATION ....... .. ............................... 76 Health Status ................................................... 76 Morbidity ................. **...................................... *so 79 THE DETERMINANTS OF HEALTH ..... ........... .................. 82 The Health Delivery System ....... ............................... 82 Issues in the Health Sector ............................... 88 REFERENCES .................................................. 95 IV. EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND POPULATION GROWTH IN EGYPT ................................ 97 Susan H. Cochrane and Mansour Oubouzar SUMM4ARY ................................................................ 9 7 INTRODUCTION ........ ................. ....................... 101 RESOURCE ALLOCATION TO EDUCATION ............. .. ............. 101 ADULT EDUCATIONAL STATUS ....................................104 Historical Trends ......................................... 104 The Educational Production Process ........................ 109 Enrollments ............................................... 110 The Primary Level ...... ....................... ............ 110 Preparatory Education ..... ................................ 123 Secondary Education . ............ 128 Higher Education ....... .. ..... ................ ............ 130 Technical and Vocational Training ........... .. ............ 132 SUMMARY AND ISSUES .............................................. 134 The Consequences of Alternative Rates of Population Growth for Primary Education ............. .. ............ 134 The Consequences of Population Growth for Preparatory Education . ..... o ............................ 136 APPENDIX IVA SELECTIVE MIGRATION'S EFFECT ON THE EDUCATIONAL PROFILE OF THE RESIDENT POPULATION: A NOTE..... 141 APPENDIX IVB ADULT LITERACY PROGRAMS: A NOTE ............. 143 REFERENCES .................................................. 144 -3- Page No. V. LABOR FORCE GROWTH, EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS IN EGYPT: 1966-1986 .............................................. 145 R. Sabot and L. Taylor with Y. Boutros-Ghali SUM14MARY ...................................................145 EGYPT'S "EMPLOYMENT PROBLEM" . ... 148 SOME CONTRADICTORY EVIDENCE . ............................161 Rural Surplus Labor ..................................... 161 Wage Trends ........ ..................................... 163 Unemployment Trends and Other Evidence of a Tight Labor Market ................... ................ 168 Some Explanations ....... .............. .................. 170 WHAT LIES AHEAD? ... ......................................171 The Base Run .......................................... 173 Variants 1 and la: Increased Labor Supply .............. 179 Variant 2: Increased Labor Supply and Decreased Aggregate Demand ............ .......................... .. 180 CONCLUSIONS ...............................................182 ANNEX VA TABULAR SUPPLEMENT .............................. 184 APPENDIX A THE MODEL AND THE DATA ..... ................... 194 REFERENCES ................................................ 208 VI. POPULATION AND FOOD ................... .................... 209 Susan H. Cochrance SUIMMARY ................................................ 209 INTRODUCTION .......................... .................... 211 THE CURRENT SITUATION ...... .............................. 214 PROJECTED FOOD NEEDS ........................... .......... 217 EGYPT'S ABILITY TO PRODUCE FOOD REQUIREMENTS .............. 220 ALTERNATIVE POPULATION PROJECTIONS ........................ 227 NEW LANDS..... ................................................ 230 INCREASING YIELDS ..................................... 231 INCREASING CONSUMPTION LEVELS ............................. 234 CONCLUSIONS .............................................. 239 REFERENCES ............................................ 241 APPENDIX VIA: CALCULATION OF INPUTS: A TECHNICAL NOTE .... 242 -4- Page No. LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Table 2.1 MARITAL FERTILITY, EGYPT, 1960 and 1975.................. 40 2.2 REPORTED CRUDE BIRTH RATE, EGYPT, 1960-1978.............. 41 2.3 AVERAGE AGE OF FEMALE FIRST MARRIAGES AND ADJUSTED MARRIAGE RATES, EGYPT, 1965-1975.............. 42 2.4 AGE-SPECIFIC MARITAL FERTILITY RATES OF CONTINUOUSLYMARRIED WOMENBY AGE AND REGION, EGYPT, 1975 ................................... 43 2.5 ESTIMATED FERTILITY RATE OF ALL WOMEN, EGYPT, 1970-1975 ......... ....................................44 2.6 FERTILITY DIFFERENTIALS BY MAJOR REGIONS, EGYPT, SELECTED YEARS 1947-1976 .............................. 44 2.7 STANDARDIZEDAVERAGE PARITY BY EDUCATIONAL STATUS OF WOMENBY MAJOR REGIONS, EGYPT, 1960, 1974/75, 1976.. 45 2.8 MARITAL STATUS DISTRIBUTION, FEMALES 16 YEARS AND ABOVE, EGYPT, 1960 AND 1976 ....................... 45 2.9 PROPORTION MARRIED BY AGE, FEMALES, EGYPT AND CAIRO, 1960 AND 1976 .................................