Small States in a Turbulent Environment: The Baltic Perspective Edited by Atis Lejiñß and Ûaneta Ozoliña Latvian Institute of International Affairs Riga 1997 UDK 327 (474) (082) Sm 150 THE LATVIAN INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LIIA) was estab- lished on May 20, 1992 in Riga as a non-profit foundation charged with the task of providing the people of Latvia with information about international events and Baltic security issues.The LIIA is an independent public service institution that organizes lectures, seminars, exchange programs, issues publi- cations, maintains a specialized library, and conducts research relevant to Baltic security interests. The views expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute. The LIIA expresses its gratitude to the Swedish government for financing the research program "Small States in a Turbulent Environment: the Baltic Perspective" and this book. Translation: Kårlis Streips (chapters 1, 2, 3, 5, and the Conclusion) Cover design: Indulis Martinsons Lejiñ§ A., Ozoliña Û., eds. Ð Small States in a Turbulent Environment: The Baltic Perspective.Ð Riga: Latvian Institute of International Affairs, 1997. Ð 245 p. Ð (Baltic Security Studies; V) ISBN 9984Ð583Ð07Ð4 © Latvian Institute of International Affairs, 1997 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION, Atis Lejiñß and Ûaneta Ozoliña 4 CHAPTER ONE THE BALTIC STATES IN THE EUROPEAN SECURITY ARCHITECTURE, Aivars Stranga 11 CHAPTER TWO INTEGRATION OF THE BALTIC STATES IN THE EUROPEAN UNION: THE LATVIAN PERSPECTIVE, Daina Bleiere 60 CHAPTER THREE BALTIC-NORDIC INTERACTION, COOPERATION AND INTEGRATION, Ûaneta Ozoliña 113 CHAPTER FOUR THE QUEST FOR BALTIC UNITY: CHIMERA OR REALITY?, Atis Lejiñß 147 CHAPTER FIVE BALTIC-RUSSIAN RELATIONS:1995 Ð BEGINNING OF 1997, Aivars Stranga 184 CONCLUSION, Daina Bleiere, Atis Lejiñß, Ûaneta Ozoliña, Aivars Stranga 238 ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS 245 INTRODUCTION By Atis Lejiñß and Ûaneta Ozoliña Global order is more an emergent pattern than a fixed arrangement. Order is slowly developing out of the ruins of the cold war, but it is not doing so with linearity or clear-cut dimensions. It is an order that expands incrementally at the margins rather than by wholesale changes at the center. It is an order that sustains both fragmentation and integration. These are not necessarily conflicting processes, but they unfold simultaneously. And when they clash, they do so in different ways at different times in different parts of the world, with the result that the prevailing global turbulence is profoundly nonlinear, uneven in its evolution, uneven in its intensity, uneven in its scope, and uneven in its direction. James N. Rosenau his volume is the result of the second research program carried out by the Latvian Institute of International Af- Tfairs. The first major project was titled "The Baltic States: Search for Security" and a team of scholars from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were brought together in order to analyze the factors influencing the security policies of these countries, the directions they may take and possible outcomes for the time period 1990Ð1996. We focused on what we thought was the main issue, the security concerns of the Baltic states and related areas. Special attention was therefore paid to bilateral and multilateral rela- Atis Lejiñß and Ûaneta Ozoliña 5 tions with neighboring states; Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Poland and the Nordic states. However, since one of the intrinsic fea- tures of the security policies of all the three Baltic states is gain- ing membership in international institutions, our attention accordingly was also devoted to how the Baltics were integrat- ing in the world community through regional cooperation and international institutions. Our "Baltic-centric" approach allowed us to study the forma- tive process undergone by the Baltic states in becoming inde- pendent subjects in international politics and the development of security policy in newly established states. We arrived at a number of conclusions, one of which was that all three of the Baltic states in a comparatively short period, that is, in less than five years, have become true actors in world politics who active- ly try to engage themselves in the international agenda in order to stabilize their democracy and secure the irreversibility of their restored independence. In 1990Ð1994 Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania identified their foreign and security policy goals. The choice of these was dictat- ed by the international environment which prevailed at that time. There was no particular difference among the decisions which were made by all three countries to draw closer to Western structures. As this process proceeded, however, differ- ences in tactics began to emerge. We therefore concluded that in future we would need to concentrate on the specific resources and methods used by Latvia. This would allow us to compare Latvia with Estonia and Lithuania in how these states were seeking integration in European and Transatlantic institutions. The future of EU and NATO enlargement and its effect on Baltic security must be considered in tandem with Russia's foreign policy goals. As there was very little hope that the Baltic states would be in the first-wave of NATO enlargement and may find it difficult to join EU at an early stage, their security (or, rather, insecurity) would largely be dependent upon Russia's integrationist course, on the preparedness of the 6 Introduction Western countries to strengthen Baltic security, and on the status of traditional spheres of influence in the region. In beginning our next project "Small States in a Turbulent Environment: Baltic Perspectives" we wanted to answer the question how the integration of the Baltics in the European structures could be facilitated and which would be the factors that would hinder this. Considering the results of our previous research we conclu- ded that the various factors hindering and contributing to inte- gration can be divided into two groups, internal and external. Clearly, not all factors could be taken into account and accor- dingly we focused our attention on the distinguishing security aspects of the Baltic states as small states in a post-Cold War turbulent international system. The central question that we investigated was whether it was possible for the Baltic states to find a position in the internatio- nal system that would ensure their independence. We tried to identify the security policies pursued by the Baltic states as small countries as well as the policies of the international com- munity which have supported or hindered the Baltic states in achieving their aims. We also attempted to extrapolate the poli- cy directions that could be pursued by the Baltics in the future. In this we made use of studies already carried out on the sta- tus and experience of small states in an international environ- ment. We were not so much interested in drawing up a table of quantitative and qualitative criteria which would classify a country as a small state, but rather to identify the security policy options and possibilities of small states to ensure their security in the international system. If large states are more or less free to determine their policy choices according to national interests because they do not lack the required power resources, then small states must measure their security requirements against the opportunities and possi- bilities available in the international system and institutions in a particular period of time. Atis Lejiñß and Ûaneta Ozoliña 7 Until the end of the eighties' the security policy options avai- lable to small states were contingent on the bipolar balance of power environment as described in the literature by Anette Baker Fox, Karl Deutsch, Morten Kelstrup and Allen Sens. Here we see such phenomena as bandwagoning, counteralliance, alliance (with a great power or multilaterally) and neutrality. Post-Cold War Europe provides small states with a new in- ternational environment having simultaneously both advan- tages and disadvantages. The more significant advantages are the absence of direct military threats, growing opposition to even the notion of applying military force to settle conflicts between states, multiple opportunities available in international fora for small states to defend their interests, regionalism, and the presence of the USA. The disadvantages are that some small states, especially new political actors in the international system with a particular geopolitical situation, namely the Baltic states, feel less secure than others; efforts toward European integration raise concern over national sovereignty in the economic, social and cultural spheres, as do divergent views of EU’s future monetary policy and possible effects thereof, and unsatisfactory progress in establi-shing a coherent post-Cold War order in Europe.1 In order to investigate the present options available to small states an analysis of the international system was in order. Hence our recourse to the concept of "turbulence" in under- standing the international environment. This concept Ð or notion Ð is a tool that describes in general the systemic changes that have occurred in the international system since the end of the Cold War and which, as a result, influence both old and new political actors. We have used James N. Rosenau's definition as our point of departure to characterize the situation prevalent in the interna- tional environment where the Baltic states must define their security policy