DOWNTOWN WHITE BEAR LAKE RETAIL MARKET DEMAND Prepared for City of White Bear Lake April 2014 DOWNTOWN WHITE BEAR LAKE RETAIL MARKET DEMAND Prepared for City of White Bear Lake Prepared by McComb Group, Ltd. April 2014 © Copyright 2014 McComb Group, Ltd. TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Subject Page INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................. vi SUMMARY OF FINDINGS ................................................................................. ix I WHITE BEAR LAKE SHOPPING AREAS ...................................................... 1-1 Downtown White Bear Lake Retail Area ............................................................... 1-1 Other White Bear Lake Retail Areas ...................................................................... 1-4 Employment ............................................................................................................ 1-5 Gross Building Area ............................................................................................... 1-5 Parking .................................................................................................................... 1-6 Traffic Counts ......................................................................................................... 1-8 Downtown White Bear Lake Traffic Counts .......................................................... 1-8 II COMPETITIVE SHOPPING AREAS ............................................................... 2-1 Primary Competitive Retail Areas .......................................................................... 2-1 Secondary Competitive Retail Areas ...................................................................... 2-3 New Retail Development ........................................................................................ 2-4 Summary ................................................................................................................. 2-4 III DOWNTOWN WHITE BEAR LAKE MERCHANT INTERVIEWS SUMMARY ....................................................................................................... 3-1 Customer Draw ....................................................................................................... 3-1 Other Businesses That Attract Customers .............................................................. 3-1 Primary Strengths .................................................................................................... 3-1 Primary Weaknesses ............................................................................................... 3-2 Marketing to Attract New Customers ..................................................................... 3-3 Market Activities that have been successful in the Past ......................................... 3-3 New Businesses for Downtown White Bear Lake .................................................. 3-4 Retail Sales Trends since 2007 ............................................................................... 3-4 Plans for Changes to Business within Next Three Years ....................................... 3-5 Changes That Would Improve Their Business ....................................................... 3-5 Other Comments ..................................................................................................... 3-6 Summary ................................................................................................................. 3-7 IV DOWNTOWN WHITE BEAR LAKE CUSTOMER SURVEY ...................... 4-1 V RESIDENTIAL GROWTH TRENDS ................................................................ 5-1 Convenience/Services Trade Area .......................................................................... 5-1 Shopping Goods Trade Area ................................................................................... 5-3 i TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) Chapter Subject Page VI DOWNTOWN WHITE BEAR LAKE TRADE AREAS .................................. 6-1 Population and Households..................................................................................... 6-2 Household Income .................................................................................................. 6-3 Demographic Characteristics .................................................................................. 6-5 Purchasing Power.................................................................................................... 6-9 VII RETAIL SALES TRENDS .................................................................................. 7-1 Market Share ........................................................................................................... 7-2 Sales Potential ......................................................................................................... 7-4 Supportable Space ................................................................................................... 7-4 VIII DOWNTOWN RETAIL POTENTIAL .............................................................. 8-1 IX RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................................................... 9-1 APPENDICES ............................................................................ under separate cover Appendix A: White Bear Lake and Competitive Retail Areas Tenant Mixes Appendix B: Demographic Characteristics Appendix C: Retail and Services Purchasing Power Appendix D: Retail and Services Purchasing Power, Market Share, and Sales Potential Appendix E: Sales Potential and Supportable Space ii LIST OF TABLES Table Subject Page 1-1 Summary of Downtown White Bear Lake Tenant Mix by Area ............................ 1-3 1-1A Downtown White Bear Lake Tenant Mix by Area ................................................ 1-10 1-2 Summary of Other White Bear Lake Tenant Mix by Area ..................................... 1-4 1-3 White Bear Lake and Downtown White Bear Lake Employment 2002, 2007 and 2011 ............................................................................................................. 1-5 1-4 Downtown White Bear Lake Gross Building Area ................................................ 1-6 1-5 Downtown White Bear Lake Parking Inventory .................................................... 1-7 1-6 White Bear Lake Traffic Counts; 1999, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2008, and 2009 .......... 1-8 2-1 Summary of Primary and Secondary Competitive Retail Areas Tenant Mix ......... 2-2 4-1 Downtown White Bear Lake Customer Spotting Survey; 2013 Survey Respondents by Residence Location: Shopping Goods Trade Area .................. 4-2 4-2 Downtown White Bear Lake Customer Spotting Survey; 2013 Survey Respondents by Residence Location: Convenience/Services Trade Area ......... 4-3 4-3 Downtown White Bear Lake Customer Spotting Survey; 2013 Reason for Stopping at Business by Business Type ............................................................. 4-4 4-4 Downtown White Bear Lake Customer Spotting Survey; 2013 Age of Survey Respondents by Business Type .......................................................................... 4-4 4-5 Downtown White Bear Lake Customer Spotting Survey; 2013 Daytime and Evening Shopping by Business Type ................................................................. 4-5 4-6 Downtown White Bear Lake Customer Spotting Survey; 2013 Gender of Survey Respondents by Business Type .............................................................. 4-5 4-7 Downtown White Bear Lake Customer Spotting Survey; 2013 Day of Survey by Business Type ................................................................................................ 4-6 5-1 Residential Building Permits; 1990 to 2012 Metropolitan Area, Northeast and East Growth Corridors, Convenience/Services Trade Area Communities, and City of White Bear Lake .............................................................................. 5-1 5-2 Household Projections; 2014 to 2035 Metro Area, Northeast and East Growth Corridors, Convenience/Services Trade Area Communities, and Convenience/Services Trade Area ..................................................................... 5-3 5-3 Residential Building Permits; 1990 to 2012 Metropolitan Area, Northeast and East Growth Corridors, Shopping Goods Trade Area Communities, and City of White Bear Lake .................................................................................... 5-4 5-4 Household Projections; 2014 to 2035 Metro Area, Northeast and East Growth Corridors, Shopping Goods Trade Area Communities, and Shopping Goods Trade Area .............................................................................................. 5-5 iii LIST OF TABLES (continued) Table Subject Page 6-1 Downtown Convenience/Services and Shopping Goods Trade Areas and Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA Population and Household Growth Trends 2000 and 2010 Census; 2014 and 2019 Estimated ............................................. 6-2 6-2 Downtown Convenience/Services and Shopping Goods Trade Areas and Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA Average and Median Household Income 2000 and 2010 Census; 2014 and 2019 Estimated ............................................. 6-4 6-3 Downtown Convenience/Services and Shopping Goods Trade Areas and Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA Household Distribution: 2000 and 2010 Census; 2014 and 2019 Estimated ...................................................................... 6-4 6-4 Downtown White Bear Lake Convenience/Services Trade Area Demographic and Income Snapshot .........................................................................................