ENVIRONMENTALEE INFORMATION AND EDUCATION CENTRE Climate Change National Adaptation Plan for Georgia’s Agriculture Sector Tbilisi, 2017 1 This document is prepared by the LEPL “Environmental Information and Education Center” of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection of Georgia, under the joint or- der of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection and the Ministry of Ag- riculture. The project has been initiated by the Ministry of Agriculture within the frameworks of the “Agriculture Modernization, Market Access and Resilience” (AMMAR) project. This proj- ect is implementing by the Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia with the support of IFAD / GEF. LEPL “Environmental Information and Education Center” of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection of Georgia thanks to all participants of the project: Marina Shvangiradze - Sustainable Developmen Center Remissia (project team leader); Davit Bedoshvili - impact of climate change on wheat and corn; Salome Gelashvili - Argiculture Policy Research Center (ISET), cost-benefit analysis of the measures for adaptation to climate change; Gizo Gogichaishvili - National Environmental Agency (impact of climate change on potato); Vakhtang Goguadze - LEPL Laboratory of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Autonomous Republic of Adjara (citrus, potato and livestock breeding in Adjara); Medea Inashvili - project expert (guide on preparation of national adaptation plan on climate change for agriculture sector); Nato Kutaladze - National Environmental Agency (changes in agro-climatic zones and climate change future scenarios); Lika Megralidze - National Environmental Agency (the current climate change scenarios, climate change impact assessment on water requirement and productivity of non-perennial crops); Nato Mikadze - project expert (impact of climate change on nut culture in Zugdidi Municipality); Gia Nakhutsrishvili - professor of Botany Institute of Ilia State University (impact of climate change on pastures); Ana Rukhadze - project expert (review of the documents for climate change impact assessment on agriculture sector of Georgia & identification of problems); Tengiz Kurashvili - Director of the Institute of Veterinary Medicine (impact of climate change on live- stock breeding); Natia Javakhishvili - Environmental Information and Education Center (project assistant). Sector ministries have presented important recommendations and considerations during elabora- tion and refinement of the document: Grigol Lazrievi - Head of Climate Change Division (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection); Lasha Zivzivadze - Analytical Department of the Ministry of Agriculture. Table of Contents Introduction 6 1. Climate Change National Adaptation Plan for Agriculture Sector 8 1.1. Vision 2030 8 1.2. Mandate 8 1.3. Overview of Current Situation 8 1.4. Key Strategic Directions of the Strategy for Agriculture Development in Georgia 9 2. Changes of the Key Climatic Parameters 9 3. Changes in Agro-Climatic Zones of Georgia 10 Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production and 4. Recommended Adaptation Measures 15 4.1. Wheat Production in Georgia 15 4.2. Impact of Ongoing Climate Change on Wheat Productivity 18 Ongoing and Forecasted Changes in Agro-climatic Zones Relevant 4.3. for Wheat Production 20 4.4. Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Wheat Productivity and Irrigation Water Demand 21 4.5. Recommendations on Adaptation Measures in Wheat Production 24 4.6. Cost- Benefit Analysis of Wheat Production Adaptation Measures 25 Social Impact of Recommended Measures and Role in Implementation 4.7. of Agriculture Development Strategy of Georgia 26 5. Impact of Climate Change on Maize Production in Zugdidi Municipality and Recommended Adaptation Measures 27 5.1. Maize Production in Georgia 27 5.2. Impact of Ongoing Climate Change on Maize Productivity 28 Ongoing and Forecasted Changes in Agro-Climatic Zones Relevant 5.3. to Maize Production 30 Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Maize Productivity 5.4. and Irrigation Water Demand 31 5.5. Recommendations on Adaptation Measures in Maize Production 34 5.6. Cost - Benefit Analysis of Maize Production Adaptation Measures 34 5.7. Social Impact of Recommended Measures and Role in Implementation of Agriculture Development Strategy of Georgia 36 Impact of Climate Change on Potato Production in Certain 6. Regions of Georgia and Recommended Adaptation Measures 36 6.1. Potato production in Georgia 36 6.2. Impact of Ongoing Climate Change on Potato Productivity 38 6.3. Ongoing and Forecasted Changes in Agroclimatic Zones Relevant for Potato Production 41 6.4. Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Potato Productivity and Irrigation Water Demand 42 6.5. Recommendations on Adaptation Measures in Potato Production 47 6.6. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Potato Production Adaptation Measures 48 6.7. Social Impact of Recommended Measures and Role in Implementation of Agriculture Development Strategy of Georgia 48 Impact of Climate Change on Tangerine Production 7. in Ajara and Recommended Adaptation Measures 49 7.1. Tangerine production in Ajara 49 7.2. Impact of Ongoing Climate Change on Tangerine Productivity 50 Ongoing and Forecasted Changes in Agro-climatic Zones 7.3. Relevant for Tangerine Production 51 7.4. Recommendations on Adaptation Measures in Tangerine Production 53 7.5. Cost- Benefit Analysis of Tangerine Production Adaptation Measures 54 7.6. Social Impact of Recommended Measures and Role in Implementation of Agriculture Development Strategy of Georgia 55 Climate Change Impact on Production of Hazelnut 8. and Adaptation Measures 55 8.1. Hazelnut Production in Georgia 55 8.2. Impact of Ongoing Climate Changes on Hazelnut Productivity 56 8.3. Ongoing and Forecasted Change in Agroclimatic Zones Relevant for Hazelnut Production 58 8.4. Recommendations on Adaptation Measures in Hazelnut Industry 59 8.5. Cost- Benefit Analysis of Hazelnut Industry Adaptation Measures 59 8.6. Social Impact of Recommended Measures and Role in Implementation of Agriculture Development Strategy of Georgia 61 Impact of Climate Change on Pastures and 9. Recommended Adaptation measures 62 9.1. Pastures in Georgia 62 9.2. Impact of Ongoing Climate Change on Pastures Productivity 63 Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Grasslands (Hay Meadow/Pastures) 9.3. Productivity and Irrigation Water Demand 67 9.4. Recommendations for Adaptation Measures in Pasture Management 74 9.5. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Measures in Pasture Management 76 Social Impact of Recommended Measures and Role in 9.6. Implementation Agriculture Development Strategy of Georgia 77 Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Farming 10. and Adaptation Measures 78 10.1. Overview of Development State of Livestock Farming 78 Impact of Ongoing and Forecasted Climate Change on Livestock 10.2. Farming Sector 79 Recommendations on Adaptation Measures in 10.3. Livestock-farming Sector 81 10.4. Cost -Benefit Analysis of Livestock Farming Adaptation Measures 82 Social Impact of Recommended Measures and Role in 10.5. implementation of Agriculture Development Strategy of Georgia 82 11. Conclusions and Recommendations for the Next Steps 83 Annex 89 Introduction Traditionally, agriculture is a key economic sector in Georgia employing about 42% of the population though its share in GDP is not so high and in 2015 it was 9.3%1. The sec- tor requires rehabilitation and reformation and the ongoing climate change processes should be taken into consideration, Agricultural production heavily depends on climatic conditions. Forecasted climate change significantly increases sector development risks, also it negatively impacts economic and social welfare of the farmers and other vulner- able groups. Though there are positive impacts as well. The above has caused necessi- ty of development of the national plan for agriculture sector adaptation to the climate change. This was initiated by the Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia within the scopes of the project “Agriculture Modernization, Market Access and Flexibility (AMMAR). The mentioned project is implemented by the Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia with IFAD/ GEF support and its goal is providing assistance to the large farmers in reduction of risks caused by climate change, increase of incomes of the small farmers and improve- ment of resistance to climate changes impact through providing the infrastructure, pro- duction systems stable to the climate changes and investments into the technologies. Elaboration of the National Plan for Agriculture Sector Adaptation to Climate Changes (hereinafter National Adaptation Plan (NAP)) was preceded by the analysis of the stud- ies conducted in the country, for assessment of the agricultural sector vulnerability and adaptation. As a result, the available data and information were collected and the gaps and requirements for NAP development were identified. Based on the above there was elaborated the roadmap for NAP preparation and development, setting the stages of Ad- aptation Plan development, there was assessed also how favourable the existing politi- cal, legal and institutional environment was for the document elaboration and adoption. In preparation of the roadmap the components necessary for agriculture sector development were considered, as well as and how well the impact of climate change on these components was studied in Georgia. The key components considered include the climate and agro-climat- ic zones, soils, irrigation water and irrigation facilities, agriculture directions (annual