An Interdisciplinary Investigation into the Linkages between Transport, the Environment, Climate Change, Hydrology, Agriculture and Food Security in the rural Letaba District, Limpopo Province, South Africa/ TANYA LANE-VISSER, MARIANNE VANDERSCHUREN AND WILLEM DE CLERCQ May 2014 CONTRACT REF NO. [AFCAP/GEN/127/G] An Interdisciplinary Investigation into the Linkages between Transport, the Environment, Climate Change, Hydrology, Agriculture and Food Security in the rural Letaba District, Limpopo Province, South Africa/ Crown Agents This project was funded by the Africa Community Access Programme (AFCAP) which promotes safe and sustainable access to markets, healthcare, education, employment and social and political networks for rural communities in Africa. Launched in June 2008 and managed by Crown Agents, the five year-long, UK government (DFID) funded project, supports research and knowledge sharing between participating countries to enhance the uptake of low cost, proven solutions for rural access that maximise the use of local resources. The programme is currently active in Ethiopia, Kenya, Ghana, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, South Africa, Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan and is developing relationships with a number of other countries and regional organisations across Africa. This material has been funded by UKaid from the Department for International Development, however the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the department’s or the managing agent’s official policies. For further information visit https://www.afcap.org Report summary This report chronicles an interdisciplinary investigation to determine the linkages between transportation, the environment, climate change, hydrology, agriculture and food security. The report starts with an overview of the study purpose and approach. This is followed by a detailed description of the Letaba district, a rural district in South Africa which forms the study area in this research. Specific attention is paid to the state of transportation in the area, as well as proposed economic developments. Next, the link between climate change and transportation is investigated, followed by a similar investigation into the linkages between transportation and the environment (including links to hydrology, agricultural potential and food security). A scenario based transport impact assessment is done for the study area. Based on the results from this assessment, certain generalised findings are concluded. The most notable finding is confirmation of the notion that, whilst proposed regional developments might be beneficial economically or socially, they could unwittingly trigger a number of negative environmental impacts. It is also found that an environmental impact assessment should not simply stop at the direct environmental impacts, but should consider the indirect and compound impacts of a proposed development as well. Disregard of indirect impacts can grossly underestimate the full impact of a proposed development. The study concludes that transportation, the environment, climate change and a region’s hydrology, its agricultural productivity and food security all form an interrelated system that needs to be balanced in order to achieve true sustainability. i An Interdisciplinary Investigation into the Linkages between Transport, the Environment, Climate Change, Hydrology, Agriculture and Food Security in the rural Letaba District, Limpopo Province, South Africa/ Crown Agents Table of Contents List of Tables (v) List of Figures (vi) Abstract (vix) Page 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Research objective 1 1.3 Research methodology 1 1.4 Research scope 1 1.5 Outline of the report 2 2. The Letaba basin – the status quo 2 2.1 Overview 2 2.1.1 Geographical location 2 2.1.2 Demography 5 2.1.3 Regional economy 6 2.1.4 Environmental concerns in the region 10 2.2 Transportation infrastructure in the Letaba basin 11 2.2.1 Roads white text to fix tab 11 2.2.2 Rail white text to fix tab 20 2.2.3 Aviation 20 2.2.4 Pipelines 21 2.2.5 Water-based transport 21 2.2.6 Intermodal facilities 21 2.2.7 Border crossings 21 2.3 Transportation activity in the Letaba basin 22 2.3.1 Passenger transportation 22 2.3.2 Freight transportation activity 26 3. Development prospects in the Letaba basin 28 3.1 Economic development 28 3.1.1 Agriculture 30 3.1.2 Mining white text to fix tab 31 3.1.3 Tourism 32 3.2 Infrastructure development 33 ii An Interdisciplinary Investigation into the Linkages between Transport, the Environment, Climate Change, Hydrology, Agriculture and Food Security in the rural Letaba District, Limpopo Province, South Africa/ Crown Agents 4. Climate change and transportation 34 4.1 Brief overview of climate change 34 4.2 The impacts of climate change on transportation 36 4.2.1 Direct impacts of climate change 36 4.2.2 Indirect impacts of climate change 36 4.2.3 Summary of the overall impacts of climate change 45 4.3 The impact of transportation on climate change 45 4.4 The linkages between climate change and transportation in the Letaba catchment 45 4.4.1 Climate change impacts on Africa in general 45 4.4.2 The South African GHG inventory for transport activity 46 4.4.3 Climate change impacts on South Africa 46 4.4.4 Climate impacts on the north eastern part of South Africa 48 5. Environmental impacts of transportation 51 5.1 Air pollution 51 5.1.1 Various types of air pollutants 51 5.1.2 Factors influencing the extent of air pollution 53 5.1.3 Geographical reach of impacts 53 5.1.4 Additional notes on air pollution 53 5.2 Biodiversity impacts 54 5.3 Greenhouse effect 54 5.4 Noise pollution 56 5.4.1 Noise pollution defined 56 5.4.2 The effects of noise pollution 56 5.4.3 The key causes of noise pollution 57 5.5 Resource consumption 58 5.5.1 Non-renewable fossil fuels 58 5.5.2 Other resources 59 5.6 Soil impacts 59 5.6.1 Soil contamination 59 5.6.2 Erosion white text to fix tab 59 5.6.3 Other soil related impacts 59 5.7 Water impacts 59 5.7.1 Storm water 59 5.7.2 Ground water 60 5.7.3 Surface water 60 5.7.4 Relationship between impervious surfaces and surface runoff 61 5.8 Energy supply impacts 64 iii An Interdisciplinary Investigation into the Linkages between Transport, the Environment, Climate Change, Hydrology, Agriculture and Food Security in the rural Letaba District, Limpopo Province, South Africa/ 5.8.1 Electricity supply 64 Crown Agents 5.8.2 Liquid fuels supply 66 5.9 Infrastructure supply impacts 67 5.9.1 Intermodal transportation impacts 69 5.10 Vehicle supply impacts 69 5.10.1 Aircraft maintenance and refurbishment 69 5.10.2 Railway maintenance and refurbishment 69 5.10.3 Road vehicle maintenance and refurbishment 70 5.11 Transport activity impacts 70 5.12 Second order environmental impacts 71 5.12.1 Acidification 71 5.12.2 Secondary air pollution 71 5.12.3 Secondary impacts on biodiversity 71 5.13 The link to food security 71 5.13.1 Biodiversity impacts on agricultural productivity 72 5.13.2 Climate change impacts on agricultural productivity 72 5.13.3 Soil degradation impacts on agricultural productivity 74 5.13.4 Transportation activity impacts on agricultural productivity 76 5.13.5 Water quality impacts on agricultural productivity 76 5.13.6 Summary of the links to food security 76 5.14 Summary of transport related environmental impacts 76 5.14.1 First order impacts 76 5.14.2 Second order impacts 78 5.14.3 Third order impacts 78 6. Transportation impact assessment in the Letaba district 78 6.1 Generalised methodology to assess localised transport impacts 78 6.2 Letaba transportation impact assessment model configuration 80 6.2.1 Transport enablers in the Letaba catchment 80 6.2.2 Potential localised environmental impacts 82 6.2.3 Regional development scenarios 84 6.2.4 Estimating the impact of climate change in the Letaba catchment 87 6.3 Environmental impact estimation methods 90 6.3.1 Air pollution 90 6.3.2 Noise pollution 90 6.3.3 Biodiversity 90 6.3.4 Urban sprawl 91 6.3.5 Contamination 91 6.3.6 Erosion white text to fix tab 92 6.3.7 Water pollution 92 6.3.8 Water shortages 92 iv An Interdisciplinary Investigation into the Linkages between Transport, the Environment, Climate Change, Hydrology, Agriculture and Food Security in the rural Letaba District, Limpopo Province, South Africa/ 6.3.9 Road safety 93 Crown Agents 6.3.10 Health impacts 93 6.3.11 Agricultural productivity 93 7. Transportation impact assessment results 93 7.1 No climate change simulation 93 7.2 Climate change simulation 94 7.3 Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis 94 7.4 Generalisation of results 94 8. Conclusions and recommendations 95 9. References 95 Appendices Appendices/ 101 Transport impact assessment road configuration 102 List of Tables Table 2.1 Mopani district municipality population estimate comparing census 2001 to census 2011 data 5 Table 2.2 Vhembe district municipality population estimates 5 Table 2.3 Road classification split per province 12 Table 2.4 Mopani district key tourism roads 14 Table 2.5 Road infrastructure management by the Greater Tzaneen municipality 16 Table 2.6 Gravel road infrastructure in the Thulamela municipality 18 Table 2.7 Asphalted road infrastructure in the Thulamela municipality 18 Table 2.8 Municipal road infrastructure in Makhado 18 Table 2.9 Mopani district average number of trips per person per day according to purpose 22 Table 2.10 Vhembe district average number of trips per person per day according to purpose 22 Table 2.11 Taxi facilities in the Mopani District 23 Table 2.12 Public transport overview for the Vhembe district 24