Comparison of Glacier Loss on Qori Kalis, Peru and Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania Over the Last Decade Using Digital Photogrammetry and Stereo Analysis Master’s Thesis Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree Master of Science in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Kara A. Lamantia Graduate Program in Earth Sciences The Ohio State University 2018 Thesis Committee: Dr. Lonnie G. Thompson, Advisor Dr. Ellen Mosley-Thompson Dr. Rongjun Qin Copyright by Kara A. Lamantia 2018 Abstract While there are only a handful of locations around the world today where tropical glaciers still exist, and given their high sensitivity to climate change they can be used as indicators of change and for interpretations of the mechanisms driving climate change. Recent technological advances now provide an opportunity to modify the way glaciers are observed and measured. These are applied to the Qori Kalis glacier in Peru and the ice fields on Kilimanjaro in this work. New developments have opened doors for digital photogrammetry software such as the Leica photogrammetry suite and stereo analyst from ERDAS, which offer stereoscopic tools with the ability to plot the ice extent in a three dimensional image. The resulting three-dimensional digital content offers more flexibility in analysis, quantification, visualization, and improves the documentation of retreating glaciers. It is possible to produce both two-and three-dimensional area estimations and volume loss for glaciers such as Qori Kalis, the main outlet glacier of the Quelccaya ice cap (Peru), and the Kilimanjaro ice fields, Tanzania. Satellite imagery was purchased for 2017 and used to acquire a more accurate measure of the ice loss than provided by the terrestrial or aerial imagery that was used previously. This new approach simplifies the measurement and calculation process and when measurements made using the digital method are compared with those from the earlier measurements they are found to be comparable. The retreat of Qori Kalis is analyzed from 2004 to 2017 while the Kilimanjaro ice fields are analyzed from 2010 to 2017 and the resulting data are compared to past measurements from various studies. Both tropical locations show a decrease in the ice cover along a linear regression from 2004 until 2017. There is evidence for both a retreat ii of the ice and a thinning of the surface at both sites. Kilimanjaro’s ice fields continue to separate into multiple smaller bodies and are losing ice from solar radiation induced melting as well as sublimation. This ice cap that covered 12 km2 just over a century ago 2 now covers a total area of only 1.01 km . The continued rise of the freezing level height, coupled with influences from the last ENSO event, results in the continuing upslope retreat and thinning of Qori Kalis. Over the thirteen year observational period Qori Kalis’ areal extent decreased by 30%, its volume decreased by 43%, consistent with past studies and the behavior of the Quelccaya ice cap. Within one to two decades, the Kilimanjaro ice fields and the Qori Kalis glacier are quite likely to disappear completely. iii Acknowledgments I would like to thank my advisor Dr. Lonnie G. Thompson and my advisory committee of Drs. Ellen Mosley-Thompson and Rongjun Qin for their unwavering support and guidance. I am thankful for Dr. Thompson for sharing not only his knowledge but his endless enthusiasm for research and discovery. I would also like to thank Henry Brecher for sharing his knowledge of photogrammetry, past measurements, and providing me the opportunity to continue his past work. Past terrestrial and aerial imagery was provided through M.A.N. Mapping Services and the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center. The 2013 data of Mt. Kilimanjaro was acquired by Photomap Kenya Limited. Satellite images from 2017 were acquired through Apollo Mapping Company. I am grateful for the collaboration with the Civil Engineering Department at The Ohio State University and Dr. Rongjun Qin for opening the doors to new technology and a new method for assessing ice loss. I also wish to thank fellow graduate student Xiaohu Lu in the Civil Engineering Department for running the satellite imagery with the RSP Stereo Processor. I am grateful for the School of Earth Sciences and all the faculty at The Ohio State University for giving me the opportunity to not only learn but to teach in a wonderful program at a highly respected university. Those that work at the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center not only welcomed me but encouraged my continued growth as a researcher and a scientist. This project could not have been accomplished without my parents, Mark and Lisa, for their continuous support and encouragement to follow my interests wherever they might take me. iv Vita February 9, 1994…………………………………….Born – Pittsburgh, PA 2016…………………………………………………B.S., Geology, Graduate Certificate, Geographic Information Systems, University of Dayton, Dayton, Ohio 2016 – Present………………………………………Graduate Teaching Assistant, and Graduate Research Associate, School of Earth Sciences, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Fields of Study Major Field: Earth Sciences v Table of Contents Abstract……………………………………………………………………………………….......ii Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………...…………….....iv Vita……………………………………………………………………………………………….v List of Figures………………………………………………………………...……………...…viii List of Tables………………………………………………………………………………....….xii Chapters 1. Introduction................................................................................................................….....1 1.1 Concern for Natural Systems……………………………………………………...….1 1.2 Glacier Evidence for Climate Change………………………………………….….....1 1.3 Past Data Collection……………………………………………………………....….3 1.4 Expected Outcomes……………………………………………………………......…4 2. The Study Areas: Qori Kalis Glacier, Peru and Mt. Kilimanjaro Ice Fields, Tanzani.......6 2.1 Tropical Glaciers and their Environments…………………………….......…….........6 2.2 Importance of Tropical Glaciers…………………………………………………..…7 2.3 Regional Climate Overview…………………………………………………...…….10 2.4 Study Area Specifics…………………………………………………………...…….16 3. Methodology…....………………………………………………………………...……..18 3.1 Acquiring the Data………………………………………………………………..…18 3.2 Processing the Data……………………………………………………………...…..28 3.3 Error and Uncertainties…………………………………….…………………..……42 4. Results……………………………………………………………………………...……45 4.1 Horizontal Area and Surface Area Measurements……………………………......…45 4.1.1 Qori Kalis………………………………………………………….….…..45 4.2.1 Kilimanjaro………………………...………………………………...……47 4.2 Retreat of Terminus, Qori Kalis……………………………………………..…..…..52 vi 4.3 Volume Loss…………………………………………………………………..….…55 4.3.1 Qori Kalis…………………………………………………………….…..55 4.3.2 Kilimanjaro………………………………………………...……….……58 4.4 Contour Maps, Qori Kalis……………………………………………………..……60 5. Discussion………………………………………………………………………..……..64 5.1 Qori Kalis Area and Volume Loss…………………………………………….....…64 5.2 Qori Kalis Terminus Retreat…………………………………………………..……67 5.3 Qori Kalis Terrestrial to Satellite Transition, 2016-2017…………....…...…..…….68 5.4 Kilimanjaro Area and Volume Loss………………………………………..………70 5.5 Comparison of Kilimanjaro to Qori Kalis……………………………...……..……74 5.6 Indication of El Niño…………………………………...……………………..……77 6. Summary, Conclusions, and Suggestions for Future Research…………….…….…….79 6.1 Continuing Ice Loss………………………………………………….……….…….79 6.2 Implications for Ice Loss…………………………......…………….……….……...80 6.3 Suggestions for Future Research………………………………….……….……….81 References……………………………………………………………….……………….……..82 vii List of Figures 2.1 Figure 2.1: The Qori Kalis valley in July 2005 (a) and 2006 (b). An avalanche of ice from the glacier in March 2006 caused the proglacial lake to breach the moraine and flood the valley below. There are sediment deposits visible in (b) at the end of the lake that resulted from the flood (Thompson et al., 2011)…….…9 2.2 Map showing the location of the Qori Kalis glacier on the Quelccaya ice cap, Peru…………………………………………………….………………………..12 2.3 Aerial photo of the summit plateau of Kilimanjaro, showing the Kilimanjaro ice fields; the inset shows the location of Kilimanjaro on the border of Tanzania and Kenya, Africa (February 2010)..………………………………………………..13 2.4 World map showing the motion of the ITCZ with respect to the two study areas. The ITCZ passes over Mt. Kilimanjaro usually twice a year, while the Qori Kalis glacier is far enough south so that it only receives an annual passing of the ITCZ (Desonie, 2017)…………………………………………………………………15 3.1 The Qori Kalis glacier, Peru with the 5 GCPs used marked in blue. GCP #5 was not used due to difficulties with accurately locating the point on the images (June 27th, 2005)……………………………………………………………………....22 3.2 Kilimanjaro with six GCPs marked in red and numbered. The GCPs were originally placed in a circle around the crater and marked with targets but are not located on distinct features around the peak (February, 2010)………………....23 3.3 Satellite image of Kilimanjaro, taken June 22nd, 2017. Minor cloud cover is present around the mountain-top but does not interfere in measurements……...27 3.4 Coordinates from the stereo analyst program uploaded into the ArcMap program and will appear as points on the map space (example from 2004)..…………….28 3.5 ArcMap displays the ice surface points as a TIN file and creates an outline for the lake boundary, shown by the purple line (2004). Each elevation grouping (meters) is represented by an assigned color………………………....………....31 3.6 The TIN file is converted into a raster