DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES POLICY DEPARTMENT B: STRUCTURAL AND COHESION POLICIES TRANSPORT AND TOURISM RESEARCH FOR TRAN COMMITTEE – SELF-PILOTED CARS: THE FUTURE OF ROAD TRANSPORT? STUDY Provisional version This document was requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Transport and Tourism. AUTHORS Steer Davies Gleave: Roberta Frisoni, Andrea Dall’Oglio, Craig Nelson, James Long, Christoph Vollath, Davide Ranghetti, Sarah McMinimy RESPONSIBLE ADMINISTRATOR Piero Soave Policy Department Structural and Cohesion Policies European Parliament B-1047 Brussels E-mail: [email protected] EDITORIAL ASSISTANCE Adrienn Borka LINGUISTIC VERSIONS Original: EN ABOUT THE PUBLISHER To contact the Policy Department or to subscribe to its monthly newsletter please write to: [email protected] Manuscript completed in March 2016. © European Union, 2016. Print ISBN 978-92-823-9055-9 doi:10.2861/685052 QA-01-16-341-EN-C PDF ISBN 978-92-823-9056-6 doi:10.2861/66390 QA-01-16-341-EN-N This document is available on the Internet at: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/supporting-analyses DISCLAIMER The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorized, provided the source is acknowledged and the publisher is given prior notice and sent a copy. DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES POLICY DEPARTMENT B: STRUCTURAL AND COHESION POLICIES TRANSPORT AND TOURISM RESEARCH FOR TRAN COMMITTEE – SELF-PILOTED CARS: THE FUTURE OF ROAD TRANSPORT? STUDY Provisional version Abstract The study provides an analysis of the development of automated vehicles inside and outside the EU, including both the technologies which are already on the market and those under testing and research. The EU is giving increasing attention to automated and connected vehicles as they could have huge impacts on road safety, travel behaviour and urban development. The study reports on state of the art key research projects and large scale testing in this area and discusses future pathways and potential impacts of increasing vehicle automation. It concludes with recommendations on aspects that should be considered when shaping policies to sustain the research and development, and bringing to market, of highly automated and connected vehicles. IP/B/TRAN/FWC/2010-006/Lot1/C1/SC11 2016 PE 573.434 EN Self-piloted cars: the future of road transport? ____________________________________________________________________________________________ CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 7 LIST OF TABLES 11 LIST OF FIGURES 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 13 1. INTRODUCTION 17 1.1. Preface 17 1.2. Study requirement 17 1.3. Organisation of the research study 17 2. AUTOMATED VEHICLES CLASSIFICATIONS 19 2.1. Introduction 19 2.2. Definitions 19 2.3. Automated vehicle classifications 19 2.4. Technology 23 3. ONGOING RESEARCH, TESTING AND ACTUAL IMPLEMENTATION 29 3.1. Introduction 29 3.2. Stakeholders and goals 29 3.3. Projects and application contexts 39 3.4. Legislative framework for testing and place into market 52 4. WHERE AUTOMATED CARS CAN BRING THE MOST BENEFITS 61 4.1. Introduction 61 4.2. Future pathways 61 4.3. Potential impacts of automated vehicles 66 5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMENDATIONS 89 5.1. Introduction 89 5.2. Findings and Conclusions 89 5.3. Recommendations 93 REFERENCES 99 5 Policy Department B: Structural and Cohesion Policies ____________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 Self-piloted cars: the future of road transport? ____________________________________________________________________________________________ LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AAMVA American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators ABI Association of British Insurers ABS Anti-lock Braking Systems ACASS Accident Causation Analysis with Seven Steps ACC Adaptive Cruise Control ADAS Advanced Driver Assistance Systems AEB Autonomous Emergency Breaking AEBS Advanced Emergency Braking Systems AI Artificial Intelligence ARTS Automated Road Transport Systems CACC Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control CCF Connected Car Forum CES Consumer Electronic Show CIS Center for Internet and Society C-ITS Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems DAE Digital Agenda for Europe DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DAVI Dutch Automated Vehicle Initiative DfT Department for Transport (UK) DSRC Dedicated Short-Range Communication EPoSS European Technology Platform on Smart Systems Integration EPSRC Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council ERTRAC European Road Transport Research Advisory Council ESC Electronic Stability Control 7 Policy Department B: Structural and Cohesion Policies ____________________________________________________________________________________________ ESP Electronic Stability Program EU European Union FCA Fiat Chrysler Automobile FCW Forward Collision Warning Fordonsstrategisk Forskning och Innovation FFI (Strategic Vehicle Research and Innovation – Finland) FHWA Federal Highway Administration FIA Federation Internationale de l'Automobile GHG GreenHouse Gas GIS Geographic Information Systems GPS Global Positioning Systems IIHS Insurance Institute for Highway Safety ITF International Transport Forum ITS Intelligent Transportation System LCA Lane Change Assist LDW Lane Departure Warning LKA Lane Keeping Assist MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OICA International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturer OTA Over The Air PA Park Assist PDC Park Distance Control PROUD Public Road Urban Driverless PRT Personal Rapid Transit 8 Self-piloted cars: the future of road transport? ____________________________________________________________________________________________ R&D Research & Development SAE Society of Automotive Engineers SARTRE Safe Road Trains for the Environment SNACS SafetyNet Accident Causation System StVO Straßenverkehrsordnung (German Road Traffic Code) TCS Traction Control System TLN Transport en Logistiek Nederland Toegepast Natuurwetenschappelijk Onderzoek (Netherlands TNO Organisation for Applied Scientific Research) TTI Texas Transportation Institute UK United Kingdom UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe US United States USDOT United States Department of Transportation Eidgenössisches Departement für Umwelt, Verkehr, Energie und Kommunikation UVEK (Federal Department of Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications - Switzerland) VDA German Association of Automotive Industry V2I Vehicle to Infrastructure V2V Vehicle-‐to‐-Vehicle VMT Vehicle-Miles Travelled VRAIN Vehicular Risk Awareness Intelligence Network Väg- och TransportforsknIngsinstitut VTI (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute) 9 Policy Department B: Structural and Cohesion Policies ____________________________________________________________________________________________ 10 Self-piloted cars: the future of road transport? ____________________________________________________________________________________________ LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1 Examples of application of automated vehicles in private cars under the evolutionary approach 40 TABLE 2 Examples of application of automated vehicles in private cars under the revolutionary approach 45 TABLE 4 Examples of application of automation on urban mobility and in public transport vehicles 49 TABLE 5 SWOT analysis about vehicle automation 93 TABLE 6 Lesson learned, recommendations and an assessment of developments in vehicle automation 94 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1 SAE International’s Levels of Automation 20 FIGURE 2 SAE International versus NHTSA automated vehicles classification 22 FIGURE 3 Major categories of stakeholders involved in automated vehicle deployment 30 FIGURE 4 Road fatalities in the EU since 1995 67 FIGURE 5 Number of fatalities, number of injury accidents and million passenger-km in the EU, 1995-2013 (1995 = 100) 68 11 Policy Department B: Structural and Cohesion Policies ____________________________________________________________________________________________ 12 Self-piloted cars: the future of road transport? ____________________________________________________________________________________________ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Existing implementation A variety of driving assistance systems of Level 0 (no automation), Level 1 (driver assistance) and a smaller number of Level 2 (part automation) technologies are currently available on the market, mainly implemented on passenger cars to support driving on motorways or for parking. Vehicle manufacturers are investing in R&D of more advanced automation systems up to Level 3 (conditional automation), which are expected to further improve the driving safety and comfort of private vehicles. Concurrently, research and testing of higher automated systems (level 4 – high automation and level 5 – full automation) is already underway. The concept of “self-driving vehicle” represents the pinnacle of vehicle automation, although, at the moment, the implementation of fully automated vehicles still requires a considerable amount of research and technological advancement. In the EU a number of countries – namely the UK, Sweden, Germany, France and The Netherland - are taking significant steps to be at the forefront of research in this sector; in many cases actions in this area are led by vehicle manufacturers. Outside Europe, the United States