The power to change: Creating lifeline and mitigation- adaptation opportunities through geothermal energy utilisation Pacifica F. Achieng Ogola Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences School of Engineering and Natural Sciences University of Iceland 2013 The power to change: Creating lifeline and mitigation- adaptation opportunities through geothermal energy utilisation Pacifica F. Achieng Ogola Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of a Philosophiae Doctor degree in Environment and Natural Resources Advisor Dr Brynhildur Davidsdottir Geothermal Advisor Dr Ingvar Birgir Fridleifsson PhD Committee Dr Brynhildur Davidsdottir Dr Ingvar Birgir Fridleifsson Dr Sigurdur S. Snorrason Opponents Dr Halldor Armansson Dr Michael Evan Goodsite Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences School of Engineering and Natural Sciences University of Iceland Reykjavik, February 2013 The power to change: Creating lifeline and mitigation-adaptation opportunities through geothermal energy utilisation Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of a Philosophiae Doctor degree in Environment and Natural Resources Copyright © 2013 Pacifica F. Achieng Ogola All rights reserved Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences School of Engineering and Natural Sciences University of Iceland Sturlugata 7 101 Reykjavik Iceland Telephone: +354 525 4000 Bibliographic information: Ogola, P.F.A., 2013, The power to change: Creating lifeline and mitigation-adaptation opportunities through geothermal energy utilisation, University of Iceland, 247pp. ISBN 978-9935-9064-8-9 Printing: Háskólaprent Reykjavik, Iceland, February 2013 Abstract Access to modern energy services is key to economic development and progress towards the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Climate change presents significant threats to the achievement of the MDGs. To achieve the objectives of the MDGs and climate change strategies (mitigation and adaptation), low carbon energy resources such as geothermal energy are required. This study focuses on the possible contribution of geothermal energy in providing energy services and creating sustainable livelihoods, while meeting the objectives of the MDGs and climate change adaptation in the eastern Baringo lowlands, within the Marigat and East Pokot districts, located in Kenya‘s north rift. The potential of using geothermal energy in climate vulnerable sectors and in income- generating activities using resources within a 50 km radius is summarised in a Lindal diagram Likewise, the potential for maladaptation from the proposed geothermal utilisation schemes are also discussed. To derive both mitigation and adaptation synergies from geothermal utilisation, the research creates the first Geothermal Adaptation-Mitigation (Geo-AdaM) conceptual framework, and identifies potential co-benefits, tradeoffs and limitations. Finally, the research highlights some of the infrastructural development and benefits from the Olkaria geothermal project in Naivasha (electricity production and direct use) and assesses the potential of transferring such benefits to the undeveloped East Pokot (part of eastern Baringo lowlands). This study brings to light the potential benefits before the commencement of geothermal drilling in the eastern Baringo lowlands, and is thus intended to guide geothermal developers, planners, and investors on the existing opportunities and how they can be realised to empower and improve the lives and livelihoods of locals before expensive drilling operations begin. Útdráttur Aðgangur að hágæðaorku er forsenda hagþróunar og framfara í anda Þúsaldarmarkmiðanna, en loftslagsbreytingar ógna því að markmiðin náist. Til að uppfylla Þúsaldarmarkmiðin og aðgerðaráætlanir vegna loftslagsbreytinga (sem fela í sér bæði aðlögun og minni losun gróðurhúsalofttegunda) er nauðsynlegt að byggja orkukerfi framtíðarinnar á kolefnissnauðum orkulindum. Rannsókn þessi metur möguleg áhrif nýtingar jarðhita á samfélagsþróun, sjálfbærni og aðlögun að loftslagsbreytingum innan ramma Þúsaldarmarkmiðanna á tveimur landsvæðum i Sigdalnum mikla í Kenía (Marigat og East Pokot héraða innan Baringo láglendisins). Möguleikar jarðhitanýtingar í atvinnugreinum viðkvæmum fyrir áhrifum loftlagsbreytinga og í ferlum sem leiða til aukinnar tekjumyndunar innan 50 km radíuss frá jarðhitasvæðum eru metnir og sýndir í Líndal grafi. Einnig er fjallað um neikvæð áhrif á aðlögun vegna mögulegrar nýtingar jarðhitans. Til að leiða í ljós samverkandi áhrif þess að draga úr losun gróðurhúsaloftegunda og aðlögun að loftlagsbreytingum er Geo-AdaM líkanið sett fram og bent á mögulega samverkandi ábata beggja leiða, fórnarskipti og takmarkanir. Að lokum er mögulegur ábati sem og þróun innviða í tengslum við jarðhitanýtingu (raforkuframleiðslu og bein nýting) í Olkaria í Naivashahéraði metin, sem og möguleikar þess að svipaður ábati náist í East Pokot, sem er mun vanþróaðra svæði í austurhluta Baringo láglendisins. Í heildina sýnir rannsóknin fram á mögulegan félagshagrænan ábata þess að nýta jarðhitaauðlindir í Baringo héraðinu áður en jarðboranir hefjast á því svæði. Rannsóknin getur því nýst í áætlanagerð, bæði fyrir fjárfesta og fyrirtæki, sem huga að framkvæmdum tengdum jarðhitanýtingu, við að greina möguleika á jákvæðum áhrifum framkvæmdanna á velferð íbúa á öðrum vanþróuðum svæðum áður en dýrar jarðboranir hefjast. To my late father Mr. William Edward Ogola On my behalf and that of my entire family List of papers The thesis is based on three published papers and a submitted manuscript. The papers will be referred in the text as chapters after the introduction: Paper I: Chapter 2 Ogola, P.F.A, Davidsdottir, B. and Fridleifsson I.B. 2011: Lighting villages at the end of the line with geothermal energy in eastern Baringo lowlands, Kenya: Steps towards reaching the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Renew Sustain Energ Rev 15, (8), 4067–4079. Paper II: Chapter 3 Ogola, F.P.A, Davidsdottir, B. and Fridleifsson I.B. 2012: Potential contribution of geothermal energy to climate change adaptation: A case study of the arid and semi-arid eastern Baringo lowlands, Kenya. Renew Sustain Energ Rev, 16, (1), 4222– 4246. Paper III: Chapter 4 Ogola, P.F.A, Davidsdottir, B. and Fridleifsson I.B. 2012: Opportunities for adaptation- mitigation synergies in geothermal energy utilisation - Initial conceptual frameworks. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change, 17 (5), 507-536. Paper IV: Chapter 5 Ogola, P.F.A, Davidsdottir, B. and Fridleifsson I.B. 2012: Contribution of geothermal energy projects to infrastructural development in Kenya: Comparative case studies of Naivasha and undeveloped East Pokot districts with possible benefit transfer. Article submitted to Energy for Sustainable Development, Elsevier (Article in review). Published papers reprinted with permission from Elsevier and Springer. Preface The word “power” in the title of the thesis is both factual and metaphorical. It stands for electric power and ability or opportunity to change the lives and livelihoods of people by providing basic energy services and creating opportunities for mitigation and adaptation with examples from geothermal energy resources. The thesis shows how geothermal technology and international environmental policies can be used in guiding meaningful implementation of geothermal projects with positive impact on basic societal needs, and in creating sustainable livelihoods. It narrows the gap between social and technical aspects of geothermal development and shows their interactions in providing practical solutions to vulnerable communities. It further highlights the relationship between the lack of infrastructure and vulnerability to climate change using examples from Kenya, across seven geothermal fields. The thesis is motivated by the untapped potential of geothermal energy in adaptation and is the first to discuss, in a comprehensive way, the potential role of geothermal energy use in adaptation as well as the opportunities for mitigation-adaptation synergies. Successful low temperature utilisation schemes are also drawn from several countries and linked to adaptation in order to support the arguments advanced in this thesis, given the fact that low temperatures schemes are still under-developed in Kenya. Some of the results from the thesis can be up scaled and/or applied in regions with similar climatic and geothermal characteristics (within the East African Rift and beyond). The thesis opens up several research opportunities and should therefore be used as a source of knowledge and a roadmap for further research. It is also worth noting that geothermal development will not be a panacea for the problems of the region discussed in this thesis, and therefore necessary interventions from other sectors and institutions are needed for full realisation of the benefits. Although the thesis is principally geared toward geothermal energy and climate sensitive sectors, it is also a valuable resource for other renewable energy projects as well as livelihood sectors which are not vulnerable to climate change, and can therefore be used across the board, with minor modification, as and where applicable. Table of Contents Paper I: Chapter 2 ............................................................................................ ix Paper II: Chapter 3 ........................................................................................... ix Paper III: Chapter 4 ......................................................................................... ix Paper IV: Chapter 5 ........................................................................................