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Clarke Beth Grill Molly Dunigan C O R P O R A T I O N NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE Paths to Victory Detailed Insurgency Case Studies Christopher Paul Colin P. Clarke Beth Grill Molly Dunigan Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-8109-4 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND—make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute.html R® is a registered trademark Cover design by Pete Soriano; image by Thinkstock © Copyright 2013 RAND Corporation This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see the RAND permissions page (www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html). RAND OFFICES SANTA MONICA, CA • WASHINGTON, DC PITTSBURGH, PA • NEW ORLEANS, LA • JACKSON, MS • BOSTON, MA DOHA, QA • CAMBRIDGE, UK • BRUSSELS, BE www.rand.org Preface This research follows and expands a previous study that examined and compared the 30 insurgencies begun and completed worldwide between 1978 and 2008, published in 2010 as Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency.1 This volume is a com- panion to RR-291/1-OSD, Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insur- gencies; these two reports supersede that earlier publication in most respects. Like the original effort, the research documented in these two volumes recounts the demonstrated effectiveness of a variety of coun- terinsurgency (COIN) concepts through case studies of insurgencies. However, the base of evidence has been expanded to 71 cases—all of the insurgencies completed worldwide between 1944 and 2010. In addition to expanding the number and scope of the cases, the effort entailed broadening the accompanying analyses. All analyses conducted as part of the original effort are repeated, but several new ones have been added, including an analysis of the duration of insur- gencies and of factors that are unique to cases involving support to the counterinsurgent force from an outside actor. The companion report presents findings from all the analyses and explains the study’s case selection and methods. It also presents an overview and in-depth assessments of the key concepts, practices, and factors that feature prominently in successful COIN operations. This volume provides detailed case narratives for the 41 new case studies. 1 Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke, and Beth Grill, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-964-OSD, 2010b. iii iv Paths to Victory: Detailed Insurgency Case Studies A similar companion volume to the original study, Victory Has a Thou- sand Fathers: Detailed Counterinsurgency Case Studies, offers detailed case histories for each of the original 30 COIN campaigns addressed in the analyses.2 A spreadsheet with the full case data for all 71 cases is available for download at http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/ RR291z1.html. This work will be of interest to defense analysts and military plan- ners who are responsible for evaluating current and future U.S. opera- tions and COIN approaches; to academics and scholars who engage in historical research on COIN, insurgency, and irregular warfare; and to students of contemporary and historic international conflicts. This research was sponsored by Office of the Secretary of Defense, Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation, Irregular Warfare Division (OSD[CAPE]IW), and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center spon- sored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the -Uni fied Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). 2 Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke, and Beth Grill, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Detailed Counterinsurgency Case Studies, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-964/1-OSD, 2010a. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures .............................................................................vii Tables .............................................................................. ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments ............................................................ xxxi Abbreviations ................................................................. xxxiii Detailed Overviews of 41 Insurgency Cases ................................. 1 UK in Palestine, 1944–1947 ...................................................... 1 Greece, 1945–1949 ................................................................14 Indochina, 1946–1954 .......................................................... 23 Philippines (Huk Rebellion), 1946–1956 ......................................31 Colombia (“La Violencia”), 1948–1958 ....................................... 40 Malaya, 1948–1955 ...............................................................51 Kenya, 1952–1956 ............................................................... 64 Algerian Independence, 1954–1962 ............................................75 Cyprus, 1955–1959 .............................................................. 94 Cuba, 1956–1959 ............................................................... 104 Oman (Imamate Uprising), 1957–1959 ...................................... 111 Indonesia (Darul Islam), 1958–1962 ......................................... 118 Tibet, 1956–1974 ............................................................... 125 Guatemala, 1960–1996 ......................................................... 134 Laos, 1959–1975 ................................................................ 147 Namibia, 1960–1989 ........................................................... 157 South Africa, 1960–1990 ...................................................... 164 South Vietnam, 1960–1975 .................................................... 177 v vi Paths to Victory: Detailed Insurgency Case Studies Eritrea, 1961–1991 .............................................................. 198 Iraqi Kurdistan, 1961–1975 .................................................... 213 Angolan Independence, 1961–1974 ........................................... 226 Guinea-Bissau,