OCTOBER 2016 Mixed Migration OCTOBER Monthly summary 2016 Middle East 1 MIXED MIGRATION MONTHLY SUMMARY | MIDDLE EAST MIXED MIGRATION MONTHLY SUMMARY | MIDDLE EAST This summary is produced by the Mixed Migration Platform (MMP) and covers inter and intra-regional displace- ment and displacement-induced mobility, drawing widely from available sources. Given the complexity of current migration trends in the Middle East, this summary gives a consolidated snapshot of mixed migration in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Turkey. Current mixed migration issues in Israel/OPT fall within the remit of the Regional Mixed Migration Secretariat (RMMS). A note on terminology: Throughout the report the term ‘refugees and other migrants’ is used to include all per- sons in mixed migration flows (this may include asylum seekers, trafficked persons, refugees, migrants, and other people on the move). Any reference to specific groups is consistent with the original source. OCTOBER 2016 INTRODUCTION Conflict in Iraq and Syria remained the dominant attempted land crossings from Turkey to Greece. drivers of mixed migration flows in the Middle East Meanwhile, returns from Europe, particularly of Iraqis in October. Amid ongoing insecurity in the region, and Afghans, continue to grow, whether the enforced refugees and migrants continue to face significant deportation of failed asylum seekers or the voluntary barriers to movement. Rigid restrictions on the return of migrants to their countries of origin. entry of Syrians to neighbouring Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon remain in force, leaving increasing numbers The following sections of this report describe of internally displaced persons (IDPs) stranded in monthly developments related to mixed migration border zones. The closure of borders along the by country, including reported arrivals, departures, Western Balkans route, and the implementation of the internal displacement relevant to cross-border EU-Turkey Agreement, have reduced sea crossings movement and discussion of relevant policy to Greece, although October saw an increase in changes. SERBIA Russia Turkey !Dimitrovgrad Sofia Attempted land crossings from ! Turkey to Greece increased in Presevo ! BULGARIA October, including via the Evros Iraq Skopje GTheEORGIA military offensive around Mosul ! River, where low water allowed some T'Bilisi !Edirne was launched !on 17 October, causing FYRoM people to cross on foot. Others were ! reportedly smuggled back to Turkey the internal displacement of over !Gevgelija Istanbul ! using the same route. 17,000 people. A further 1,950 individuals fled to Al Hol camp in Syria, !Thessaloniki ARMENIA while around 2,000 remained stranded Bursa !Canakkale ! on the the border! Ye atre vRajman Slebi. !Ankara GREECE TURKEY Van !Izmir ! !Cesme !Athens Kahramanmaras ! !Hakkari CIzre! ! Bodrum Seyhan Gaziantep Nusabin Silopi ! Antalya ! ! Ceylanpinar ! IRAN ! ! !Dohuk !Mersin !Kilis Kobani ! !Al-Hasakah Antakya !Mosul ! !Aleppo !Erbil Raqqa !Idlib ! Kirkuk !Sulaymaniyah Deir ez Zor ! Nicosia Hama ! ! ! SYRIA T!artus !Homs Syria !Beirut The number of registered Syrian LEBANON Damascus ! R!amadi Baghdad refugees has continued to grow, standing IRAQ ! at 4,796,428 by the end of October 2016. Dar'a As Sweida A growing population of Syrians is ! ! reported in Sudan, where an estimated Amman 10,000 Syrians have arrived since the Jerusa!lem ! beginning of 2016, although only around 5,000 have so far been registered. JORDAN Jordan The number of Yemeni refugees !Cairo in Jordan had grown to 5,096 by Libya then end of October, a 45% EGYPT SAUDIincrease ARABIA since the start of 2016. !Kuwait Figure 1: Overview of key developments across the Middle East 3 MIXED MIGRATION MONTHLY SUMMARY | MIDDLE EAST MIXED MIGRATION MONTHLY SUMMARY | MIDDLE EAST OCTOBER 2016 IRAQ Arrivals: No figures were available on the number of of 7.6% from the 497 Iraqis who arrived in Greece new arrivals to Iraq from other countries in October. in September. Despite this increase, the number However, recent months have seen growing numbers of arrivals remains significantly lower than in early of Iraqis voluntarily returning from Europe. A total of 2016. Prior to the implementation of the EU-Turkey 3,607 people voluntarily returned to the country in Agreement, up to 11,964 Iraqis arrived in January 2015, while in 2016 some 7,087 voluntary returns were 2016. Iraqis comprise 15% of all sea arrivals to Greece recorded as of 31 June. Reasons for return to Iraq so far in 2016, the third largest group. Recent reports include closed borders, unemployment, poor living from IOM and MEDMIG reveal that some of the key conditions, and disappointment in Europe. motivators for refugees leaving Iraq are security concerns, lack of social justice, political/economic Departures: UNHCR reports that as of 17 October instability, presence of the so-called Islamic State, and some 1,950 people, mainly women and children, the risk of kidnapping by both state and non-state had departed Iraq and arrived at the Al Hol camp actors. in northeastern Syria, after fleeing the area around Mosul in anticipation of the imminent government- Refugees and other Migrants in Iraq: As of 31 led offensive. An estimated 2,000 people were October, UNHCR figures indicate 227,971 registered reportedly waiting at the border with Syria, a result Syrian refugees in Iraq, marking an increase of 2,516 of intensive security procedures aimed at preventing individuals (1.1%) on 30 September figures. Despite fighters from the so-called Islamic State from entering this month-on-month increase, numbers remain lower Syria. Those fleeing Mosul to the Al Hol camp in Syria than the 2016 peak of 249,395 Syrians registered in must travel 200 kilometres, primarily on foot, through Iraq in June. The number of non-Syrian refugees in mined territory. Iraq stood at 47,442 people in September, although nationalities were not disclosed. As of 31 October, UNHCR figures indicate that 240,917 Iraqi refugees are hosted by neighbouring countries Internal Displacement: Since the start of a in the region. This marks an increase of 2,428 government-led military offensive against Mosul individuals (1%) from the previous 238,489 recorded on 17 October, IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix on 31 August. Of those recorded in October, 60,067 reports that 17,748 Iraqis have been newly displaced Iraqi refugees were registered by UNHCR in Jordan, (as of 31 October). The majority of people displaced an increase of 871 people (1.5%) from 30 September. in October fled southward toward Al Qayyara, though Turkish Land Forces reported the apprehension of the movements are complex. Estimates predict that 1,006 Iraqis entering Turkey by land in October. The in the ‘worst case scenario’ the Mosul offensive could most recent available figures indicate that there displace as many as one million people and push up were 126,756 Iraqi ‘persons of concern’ registered to 100,000 to seek safety in Syria. in Turkey on 30 September. Of these, 99,140 were registered as asylum seekers and 27,616 as refugees. As of 31 October, 3,233,832 people have been As of 30 June, UNHCR reported the presence of internally displaced since January 2014 as a result 24,027 Iraqi asylum seekers and refugees in Syria, of ongoing violence in Iraq. This figure is 49,416 with no more recent figures available. Some 45,000 individuals less than that identified on 28 September. Iraqi refugees were registered in Iran in 2015, but no IOM data also showed an increase in the number of updated figures have so far been released in 2016. recorded returnees from other parts of the country, reportedly exceeding one million individuals in In October, UNHCR documented the arrival by October. According to UN figures, 1,792 Iraqis sea of some 2,970 refugees and other migrants to were killed by violence, armed conflict, and acts Greece, 535 of whom were Iraqi according to the of terrorism in Iraq in October, 789 more than in Hellenic Coast Guard. This figure marks an increase September. 4 MIXED MIGRATION MONTHLY SUMMARY | MIDDLE EAST MIXED MIGRATION MONTHLY SUMMARY | MIDDLE EAST OCTOBER 2016 Estimated number of displaced Iraqis TURKEY (as of 21 November 2016) 5000 Al Hol Camp 3000 (6,885 refugees and IDPs, 1000 including 1,950 refugees Cizre from Mosul since 17 Oct.) Data source: UNHCR Zakho Duhok IRAQ Al Hasakeh Mosul Sinjar Tal Afar Erbil SYRIA Rajm Slebi (est. 2,000 IDPs waiting to cross as of 21 Nov.) Scale 0 25 50km Figure 2: Displacement from Mosul towards the Syrian border JORDAN Arrivals: During the reporting period, no specific data though no exact figures were available. UNHCR has on arrivals to Jordan was available. Since 21 June, also reported sporadic returns from Jordan to Syria in the country’s northern and northeastern borders 2016. with Syria and Iraq have remained closed militarized zones, following a suicide bombing at the border Refugees and other Migrants in Jordan: Jordan near Rukban. hosts refugees from some 44 nations with an estimated 87 refugees per 1000 inhabitants, the Departures: While there were no reports of second highest number in the world. The number departures from Jordan during the reporting period, of Syrians registered by UNHCR in Jordan stood at previous anecdotal accounts from refugees at the 655,716 individuals on 31 October, an increase of 233 Rukban area of the Syrian-Jordanian border indicated people since 30 September. Jordanian leadership that in July an estimated 15 to 20 families were and the 2015 Population Census, however, indicate returning to Syria each day. Human Rights Watch also that roughly 1.3 million Syrians are residing in the reported stories that Syrians were returning to Syria country. from the berm outside the Jordanian border in July, 5 MIXED MIGRATION MONTHLY SUMMARY | MIDDLE EAST MIXED MIGRATION MONTHLY SUMMARY | MIDDLE EAST OCTOBER 2016 Damascus Rukban Est. population of 77,500 individuals and 7,116 SYRIA observed shelters (as of 23 Oct.