Running head: HOUSE OF CARDS, POLITICAL TRUST AND CYNICISM 1 The Effect of House of Cards Exposure on Political Trust and Cynicism The Role of Prior Exposure in Narrative Persuasion by Mornon Paul Student Number: 10832807 Master Thesis Erasmus Mundus Program: Journalism, Media and Globalisation University of Amsterdam (UvA) Supervisor: Wojcieszak Magdalena July 31, 2015 HOUSE OF CARDS, POLITICAL TRUST AND CYNICISM 2 Abstract This article analyses the effect of exposure to the fictional political series House of Cards through an experimental design with a sample of young Europeans (N=80). Drawing from cultivation theory and psychology research, I add to the Extended Elaboration Likelihood Model (EELM) of narrative persuasion by taking into account prior exposure to the experimental stimulus (Slater & Rouner, 2002). I therefore develop a model of moderated mediation in which, familiarity with the stimulus moderates the mediated relationship between exposure and story-consistent beliefs through narrative immersion. The findings suggested that political fiction did not affect viewers’ levels of political trust and cynicism. However, the intensity of prior exposure positively moderated the relationship between exposure and identification with the main character. Keywords: House of Cards, Political dramas, Narrative Persuasion, Identification, Prior Exposure. HOUSE OF CARDS, POLITICAL TRUST AND CYNICISM 3 Introduction Increasing levels of political distrust in Western democracies have been a matter of concern for both politicians and researchers (e.g. Agger, Goldstein & Pearl, 1961; Citrin, 1974). Some have hypothesized that media have their share of responsibility in this phenomenon by promoting a negative vision of the political world, emphasizing the flaws rather the successes of the political life or indulging in sensationalism (e.g. Boukes & Boomgaarden, 2014; Cappella & Jamieson, 1996). Accordingly, scholars have experimentally showed that the nature of news could affect audience’s political beliefs such as level of cynicism toward politics and trust in institutions (e.g. Adriaansen, van Praag & de Vreese, 2010; Cappella & Jamieson, 1994; de Vreese, 2004; de Vreese, 2005; Elenbaas & de Vreese, 2008; Kleinnijenhuis, 2006). The purpose of this research is to examine a different type of media content. I want to see whether watching fictional series about the functioning – or the malfunctioning – of the political system can trigger similar effects on their audience. Indeed, given the impressive wave of new productions that appeared over the past decades and their increasing popularity, this specific genre has gained an unprecedented significance (among others see The West Wing, 1999; 24, 2001; The Wire, 2002; The Good Wife, 2009; Borgen, 2010; Homeland, 2011; The Newsroom, 2012; Veep, 2012). In this study, I examine Netflix’s show House of Cards (2013). Beyond their popularity, fictional political dramas are interesting to look at because they provide a different viewing experience than traditional media. House of Cards is an emblematic example both in terms of content and consumption practices. Firstly, contrary to news programs, the information conveyed by entertainment fiction is not constrained by accuracy or the need to respect reality. Political dramas often blur the border between reality and fiction. They display invented storylines but feature real institutional and factual frameworks such as historical locations (Beavers, 2002; Parry-Giles HOUSE OF CARDS, POLITICAL TRUST AND CYNICISM 4 & Parris-Giles, 2002). Furthermore, the creators of these shows often highlight the quality and the verisimilitude of their production and claim that the events depicted are inspired from reality. This is for instance the case with House of Cards (e.g. Sneed, 2013). Therefore, it cannot be discarded that political series represent an indirect source of policy-relevant information for their viewers (Mutz & Nir, 2010). Secondly, with the rise of convenience technologies, which empowered media consumers, exposure to entertainment programmes has deeply evolved (Lotz, 2007). Self- selected exposure has become an increasingly important topic of questioning for scholars (Bennet & Iyengar, 2008 Holbert, Garrett & Gleason, 2010). Henceforth, viewers have greater control on what they expose themselves to, thanks to the spread of new tools such as streaming and downloading services. Thereupon, Matrix (2014) developed the idea of a Netflix Effect from the name of the famous streaming platform. Viewers’ choose the extent and the intensity of the viewing experience. In the case of House of Cards, it resulted in increasing excessive practices, close to psychological addiction, often referred to as media binging (Devasagayam, 2014). Consequently, it appears crucial to evaluate the extent to which political beliefs can rely on the viewing of fiction. In a nutshell, this research argues that the viewing of highly addictive and elaborated political series, featuring verisimilar situations, will undoubtedly influence viewers' image of real-world politics. I argue that the new generation of political dramas may have the persuasive power to trigger the endorsement of story-consistent beliefs. More precisely, in this study, I investigate the impact of exposure to political fictional shows from the standpoint of persuasion theory in order to analyse the way viewers process the information conveyed by fictional political series. Using an experimental design with a sample of N=80 young Europeans, I aim to answer the following research question: HOUSE OF CARDS, POLITICAL TRUST AND CYNICISM 5 RQ: How exposure to political fictional dramas affects viewers’ real-world political beliefs and to what extent prior-exposure moderates the endorsement of story-related beliefs? My first goal is to confirm that political fiction has the persuasive potential to influence viewers’ vision of real-world politics. Many studies hypothesized and experimentally found that exposure to fictional programs could alter viewers’ beliefs (e.g. Igartua & Barrios, 2012; Slater, Rouner & Long, 2006; Mutz & Nir, 2010). However, when specifically looking at political beliefs – cynicism in particular – scholars failed to experimentally verify their predictions (e.g. Sigelman & Sigelman, 1974; Kaid, Towers & Myers, 1981). In this research, I draw from the Extended Elaboration Likelihood Model (EELM) of narrative persuasion to detect changes in viewers’ vision of the functioning of politics (Slater & Rouner, 2002). According to this model, I expect that exposure to political dramas will lead to the endorsement of story-consistent beliefs and that this relation will be partially mediated by viewers’ level of immersion in the fictional narrative (Cohen, 2001, Green & Brock, 2000, Slater & Rouner, 2002; Slater, Rouner & Long, 2006,). Story- consistent political beliefs will be evaluated by measuring viewers’ level of trust in institutions and cynicism towards politicians – outcomes that are relevant to the specific fictional drama studied. Indeed, House of Cards displays a very negative picture of American Politics. My second goal is to add a component to the traditional model of persuasion. In this respect, this research aims to reduce a frequent methodological shortcoming of experimental designs looking at television series. I intend to evaluate the influence of prior-exposure to the experimental stimulus – as measured by participants’ self-reports – in the framework of the EELM. In order to bring this new dimension to the EELM, I bring inputs from cultivation theory as well as psychology studies looking at content familiarity and parasocial interactions. I argue that prior familiarity with media content will have consequences on the HOUSE OF CARDS, POLITICAL TRUST AND CYNICISM 6 way viewers process the information received during the experimental exposure (Bilandzic & Busselle, 2008 ; Cohen, 2001 ; Giles, 2002 ; Green et al., 2008 ; Hoffner & Buchanan, 2005 ; Slater & Rouner, 2002). In a theoretical section, I suggest a moderated mediation model in which prior exposure to political dramas positively moderates their persuasive potential. By doing so, I also try to better understand the reality of viewing practices. Theory EELM: The Persuasive Power of Fiction As Laer, de Ruyter, Visconti and Wetzels note, “nothing is less innocent than a story” (2014, p.798). Contrary to political speeches, editorials and other intentionally persuasive contents, fictions are not originally designed to persuade. Yet they do. Slater and Rouner (2002) developed the EELM to take into account the specificities of fiction as persuasive content. Their particularity resides in the use of narratives, which imply an altered and distinctive processing of the message received during exposure. Classic theory of information processing like the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) suggests that persuasive messages need to overcome existing cognitive barriers (Petty & Cacioppo, 1986). In The ELM, persuasion happens after either a careful cognitive processing of the quality of the message (the central route) or can be affected by the persuasion context – e.g. the attractiveness of the source – (the peripheral route). In the case of fiction, the differentiation between the central and the peripheral routes is not useful anymore. The acceptance of story-related beliefs depends on the absorption of the viewer in the narrative. Absorption mostly depends upon the objective quality of the narrative. If the audience member sees the fiction