Airport Forecasts Airport forecasting is used in master planning to guide future development of the Airport. 4.1 INTRODUCTION Following a review of the factors contributing to the Airport’s future passenger and aircraft movements, a mixed Airport forecasting ensures development is appropriate for methodology for forecasting was adopted covering the passengers, ground transport and aircraft and is staged for various components of air traffic at Gold Coast Airport. the volume of air traffic movements anticipated over time. Forecasting takes account of historical trends in growth, Based on the available industry information, the following future developments anticipated in aviation and external assumptions have been made to forecast future airport factors that contribute to growth in aviation. activity: » An average annual rate of growth over the period of five Gold Coast Airport has experienced significant historical per cent in regular public transport passenger movements growth, driven by low-cost carriers and infrastructure » Aircraft movements grow at a rate slightly below investment. This investment focused on increasing capacity passenger growth, reflecting increasing use of larger to meet demand, such as the 2007 runway extension and gauge aircraft terminal development, which have sustained direct long-haul international flights. » No anticipated growth in non-RPT aircraft movements due to a combination of general aviation industry From strong success in the low-cost and international arena, factors and the land bank available for non-RPT aviation Gold Coast Airport is developing and maturing as a gateway development at Gold Coast Airport. that enables and facilitates inbound visitation to the south east Queensland and northern New South Wales regions, The assumptions adopted by GCAPL reflect the confidence outbound travel for the local community, general aviation and potential in the region to continue to: and freight activities. » Attract new residents and increasing volumes of visitors 4.2 METHODOLOGY from its key domestic and international markets » Invest commercial and residential development, Forecasting for the Master Plan has considered a range of infrastructure and public transport in the region. macro and micro factors: » The strength of current and potential future markets » The broader aviation environment, trends and predicted aircraft fleet developments » The local and international drivers of demand in terms of economics, population growth and propensity to travel » The Airport’s infrastructure capacity and capability to expand. Airport Forecasts 4.3 HISTORICAL OVERVIEW AND The 2017 Master Plan twenty-year forecast is not INDUSTRY OUTLOOK dissimilar, despite the time frame having moved forward five years. Achievement of 16.6 million annual passenger movements is forecast for the end 4.3.1 Passenger Movement Historical Overview of 2037, indicating that the profile of the forecast is more conservative than the previous Master Plans. Australian passenger movements have grown at an annual rate of just under four per cent in the Gold Coast Airport passenger movements in 2014/15 past ten years, from 104 million movements to 147 accounted for four per cent of Australian passenger million movements in June 2015 as provided by the movements. That market share is almost double Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional the 2.3 per cent market share recorded 15 years Economics (BITRE). By comparison Gold Coast ago in 2000/01, demonstrating the accelerated Airport passenger movements grew at just under six rate of growth experienced by Gold Coast Airport per cent from 3.5 million movements to 5.9 million compared to the national average. Historical Gold movements. For the calendar year of 2016, Gold Coast Airport passenger movements have been Coast Airport’s passenger movements broke the six shown against passenger movements for Australia million passenger point for the first time. in Figure 4.1. It shows that Gold Coast Airport has largely followed passenger growth for Australia, but The 2011 Master Plan forecast that six million since 2005/06 has performed better than general passengers would pass through Gold Coast Airport passenger growth trends. in the financial year 2011/12. This volume was not achieved until 2016. This was due to an unforeseen decrease in passenger numbers in 2011, which occurred for the first time since 2001 (Figure 4.1). Passenger growth corrected in 2012. The 2011 Master Plan forecast 7.8 million passengers for the financial year of 2017/18 and 16.3 million passenger movements by 2031/32. 5.9% passenger growthper annum since 2006 Historical passenger movements for 30 years (Jul85-Jun15) 7 160 6 140 5 120 Millions 100 4 80 3 60 Millions 2 40 1 20 0 0 8 Australian Passenger Movements 1991-92 2011-12 2013-14 1985-861987-8 1989-90 1993-941995-961997-981999-002001-022003-042005-062007-082009-10 Gold Coast Airport Passenger Movements Gold Coast Airport Australia Figure 4.1 Historical Passenger Movements 45 Australian Passenger Market Share 2.3% 15 4% Expected passenger growth passenger Expected Expected passenger growth 16.6m Airport Forecasts 4.3.2 Aircraft Movements Historical Overview Australian Domestic Market Medium and Long-Haul International Market The majority of passenger traffic is recorded in Gold Coast Airport now serves five medium and the domestic market (84 per cent of RPT aircraft long-haul destinations across South East Asia and movements in 2014/15). Domestic city destinations north Asia. These destinations have been added comprise Adelaide, Canberra, Cairns, Melbourne, in the past ten years, since the investment in the Newcastle, Perth and Sydney. Services to Mackay runway extension. and Mount Isa/Darwin ceased since the publication of the 2011 Master Plan. Since July 2015, additional The inaugural service for AirAsia X as an airline, services have been added to Melbourne Avalon and on the Kuala Lumpur–Gold Coast route, was in Rockhampton, which continues to Townsville. November 2007. In 2016, the long-term partnership with AirAsia X evolved. AirAsia X now serves the Seventy per cent of flights departing Gold Coast trans-Tasman market to Auckland, with the aircraft Airport are movements on trunk routes to Sydney arriving daily from Kuala Lumpur, departing for and Melbourne, which are both recorded in the top Auckland, and returning to Kuala Lumpur later in the ten domestic routes for passenger movements in day via Gold Coast Airport. Australia. Gold Coast Airport also maintains Jetstar and Scoot In the ten-year period from 2005/06, the aviation as long-haul partners. Jetstar operates flights from environment has continued to evolve, reflecting Japan (initially Osaka and now Tokyo). Scoot serves phases of: the direct Singapore route. » Stabilisation, following the collapse of Ansett Hong Kong and Chinese charters have taken » Growth, through Jetstar and then Tigerair place over recent years, culminating in the recent commencing operations announcement that a seasonal service from Hong » Industry change, with airlines evolving their Kong with Hong Kong Airlines will convert to a business models and ownership groups year-round scheduled service in 2016. This service » Economic development, with the resources triangulates with Cairns on the departing flight. industry construction phase driving a short-term shift in capacity away from traditional markets Destinations and Frequencies such as leisure. This had reversed by the end of the period. In 2016, on average 56 commercial flights a day depart Gold Coast Airport, providing over 3.66 Short-Haul International Market million one-way seats for sale in the year. An analysis of city pair frequency and carriers is presented Gold Coast Airport’s first international services in Table 4-1, with comments on recent route were on the trans-Tasman, prior to the runway announcements. extension enabling direct international long-haul services. Services today continue to the long- term markets of Auckland and Christchurch, with the relatively recent addition of direct services to Queenstown and Wellington. Key airline partners in the south west Pacific include Jetstar, Virgin Australia and Air New » Zealand. Gold Coast Airport welcomed AirAsia X GC SYD as a new partner serving the New Zealand market in 2016. million 2.4 passengers Australia’s 4th busiest route 47 Table 4-1 Destinations and Frequency of Services Commencement Date Average Number City Pair Carriers Operating If Recent of Departures Qantas, Jetstar, Virgin Sydney 25 / day Australia, Tigerair Qantas, Jetstar, Virgin Melbourne Qantas, October 2015 15 / day Australia, Tigerair Adelaide 2 / day Jetstar, Virgin Australia Canberra 1 / day Virgin Australia Cairns 1 – 2 / day Jetstar Newcastle 1 – 2 / day Jetstar Perth 1 / day Jetstar Rockhampton/ September 2015 2 – 3 / week Jetgo Townsville Melbourne Avalon October 2015 1 / day Jetstar Jetstar, Virgin Australia, Air Auckland AirAsia X, March 2016 3 / day New Zealand, AirAsia X Christchurch 1 / day Jetstar Wellington December 2014 3 / week Jetstar Queenstown December 2014 3 – 4 / week Jetstar Tokyo 5 – 6 / week Jetstar Singapore 6 – 7 / week Scoot Kuala Lumpur 6 – 7 / week AirAsia X Seasonal service, 3 / week Hong Kong Hong Kong Airlines January 2016 scheduled by July 2016 48 Gold Coast Airport 2017 Master Plan Airport Forecasts 4.3.3 Industry Outlook » High competition between four carriers operating Gold Coast Airport anticipates that the aviation to Sydney and Melbourne, offering a range of industry is likely to maintain a focus