SOCIOECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST Submitted to the United States Forest Service Region 3 Office July 2007 University of New Mexico Bureau of Business And Economic Research Acknowledgements A project of this scope can only be completed with the cooperation and collaboration of many individuals. The Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) would like to thank the Region 3 Office of the USDA Forest Service (FS) for permitting BBER to take on this important project. We hope that the information and analysis provided in this report will contribute to the development of a forest plan that continues to benefit all residents of New Mexico. Specifically, we would like to thank Dr. Richard Periman, Contract Manager, for his patience, support and willingness to answer an immeasurable number of questions from our staff and for the guidance and additional financial support provided for preparing the final draft of this report. This work was supported by many people at the National Forest Service. Particular thanks go to Cecilia McNicoll, Gila National Forest Planner, Marsha Andre, Forest Supervisor, Gail Firebaugh-Smith, Forest Archeologist, Andrea Martinez, Public Information Officer, Ralph Pope, Range Specialist, Janice Stevenson, Quemado District Ranger, and Art Telles, Wildlife Biologist, for sharing their understanding and expertise and for giving us the benefit of their experiences in the Gila NF as well as pointing us towards key people and important documents. The staff and students at BBER helped in many ways. This document owes a great debt to the careful research and clear-thinking by those who did similar assessments for other forests, Billy Ulibarri, Jeff Mitchell and Jeremy Cook. Molly Bleecker and Billy Ullibari gave wonderful feedback and helpful comments on various chapters, as did Theresa Watson, who provided references and documentation and helpful assistance in editing the final document. Rick Zimmerman wrote Chapter 2 on the demographics. Nick Potter wrote Chapter 7, lending us his masterful IMPLAN modeling skills and providing a thoughtful analysis of the Gila assessment area economies Vicky Morris Duuer worked to anticipate my various needs, keeping me continually supplied with data tables and other materials. Michael McDaniel skillfully produced the maps. As always, the folks at the Data Bank, Kevin Kargacin, Karma Shore and Larry Compton, helped navigate the murky waters of secondary data sources. BBER administrative staff, Mike Byrnes, Betsy Eklund and Betty Lujan ensured our contracts were in place and managed, that new students and staff were hired, and that we had updated maps. The project had the benefit of many talented students, including Austin Duus, Sophia Hammet and Ricardo Leo. Finally, I would like to give special appreciation to Jeffrey Mitchell who took this project over for a second time, handling the day-to-day tasks of project management and making sure that the Forest Service data were available and compiled into figures and tables. Lee A. Reynis Socioeconomic Assessment of the Gila National Forest iii Credits Principal Author Lee A. Reynis, Ph.D. Principal Investigators Lee A. Reynis, Ph.D. and Jeffrey Mitchell, Ph.D. Chapter 2 (Demographic Patterns and Trends) Richard Zimmerman Chapter 7 (Economic Impacts) Nicholas Potter, MA. Database Development Vicky Morris-Dueer, M.A. Jeffrey Mitchell, Ph.D. Lee Reynis, Ph.D. Kevin Kargacin Karma Shore arry Compton Cartography & GIS Michael McDaniel Editing Molly Bleecker, M.A. Teresa Watson, M.A. Students Joshua Akers Austin Duus Erica Freese Sophie Hammett Lucinda Sydow Administration Michael Byrnes Betsy Eklund| Betty Lujan Socioeconomic Assessment of the Gila National Forest iv Table of Contents Acknowledgements ..........................................................................................................iii Credits............................................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents .............................................................................................................. v Table of Tables ................................................................................................................ vii Table of Figures................................................................................................................ix Abbreviations ...................................................................................................................xi Executive Summary.......................................................................................................... 1 1 Introduction.................................................................................................................... 7 1.1 Statement of Purpose .............................................................................................. 7 1.2 Sources of Information and Analytical Methods .................................................... 7 1.3 Assessment Area and Level of Analysis ................................................................. 7 1.4 Gila National Forest Ranger Districts..................................................................... 9 1.5 Organization of the Report.................................................................................... 15 2 Demographic Patterns and Trends ............................................................................ 17 2.1 Population Density and Growth............................................................................ 17 2.2 Racial/Ethnic Composition ................................................................................... 19 2.3 Age of Population ................................................................................................. 21 2.4 Income and Poverty .............................................................................................. 23 2.5 Household Composition........................................................................................ 25 2.6 Educational Attainment......................................................................................... 26 2.7 Housing................................................................................................................. 28 2.8 Net Migration........................................................................................................ 30 2.9 Challenges and Opportunities for Forest Management ........................................ 32 3 Access and Travel Patterns......................................................................................... 35 3.1 Location of Major Transportation Routes............................................................. 35 3.2 Traffic Flows......................................................................................................... 38 3.3 Airports ................................................................................................................. 39 3.4 Capital Outlays and Transportation Infrastructure Improvements........................ 39 3.5 Forest Roads and Trails......................................................................................... 40 3.6 Travel Management Rule...................................................................................... 42 3.7 Right-of-Way and Other Access Issues................................................................. 43 3.8 Challenges and Opportunities for Forest Management ........................................ 44 4 Land Cover, Ownership, and Forest Health ............................................................. 47 4.1 Land Cover on the Gila National Forest............................................................... 47 4.2 Land Conveyance and Exchanges ........................................................................ 52 4.3 Forest Health......................................................................................................... 53 4.4 Endangered and Threatened Species .................................................................... 57 4.5 Challenges and Opportunities for Forest Management ........................................ 57 5 Forest Uses and Users.................................................................................................. 59 Socioeconomic Assessment of the Gila National Forest v Table of Contents 5.1 Recreation ............................................................................................................. 59 5.2 Hunting and Wildlife............................................................................................. 60 5.3 Grazing.................................................................................................................. 62 5.4 Timber................................................................................................................... 67 5.5 Mining and Extractive Industries.......................................................................... 69 5.6 Special Use Permits .............................................................................................. 70 5.7 Illegal Uses............................................................................................................ 72 5.8 Challenges and Opportunities for Forest Management ........................................ 73 6 Special Areas ................................................................................................................ 75 6.1 Recreational Sites.................................................................................................