DOCUMENT RESUME Eb=077 368 HE 004 164 AUTHOR Clarke, Neil W. J. Population Analysis and Projections for Alberta Po,st-Secondary Education. Enrollment Potential. _Mater Planning Monograph NO. 4.. 'INSTITUTION Alberta Colleges Commission, Edmonton. iPOW DATE Sep 71 116i4 171p. tbRS, PRICE MP-$0.65 DESCRIPTORS Continuation Education; Demography; *Enrollment Projections; Enrollment Rate; *Enrollment Trends; *Geographic Distribution; Higher Education; *Post Sedondary Education; Researdh; Re search Projects; *School"Demography; Statistical Data IDENTIFIERS *Alberta;Canada This= -report provides of the Alberta, . arialysib -Canada- both and basis,and dvelôpseitrOiiiiibatTproject=s;:fde the provihcialsystem : of nOnuniversity .'pbSed-Ondatyandontinuing eilii-Catioa., The -.projections pool method *et-k-ideitelOPedusing_ _ a _ projection whereby the pool of . Otëiitialstudentswas-determined by Subtracting _projected first and second year university enrollments fromthetotal numberofgrade twelve students qualified for thefirsttwo years of postsecondary =education. The pool was enlargedbyadding potentialadult_students dIawri from Older age groups. A 28==iteM::bibliogtaphy and appendices of 'Statistical data are included. (Author/MJM) FILMED FROM BEST AVAILABLE COPY MASTER PLANNING MONOGRAPH 4 oDt Enrolment Potential N-4 Con Population Analyses and Projedions Lai for Alberta Post-Secondary Education . IL7IMPMIO / D.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH. EDUCATION & WELFARE OFFICE OF EDUCATION THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPRO. 'DUCE° EXACTLY AS RECEIVED FROM THE PERSON OR ORGANIZATION ORIG. INATING IT. POINTS OF VIEW OR OPIN IONS STATED DO NOT NECESSARILY IREPRESENT OFFICIAL OFFICE OF EDU- CATION POSITION OR POLICY, July 1971 Alberta Colleges Commission Any vieWs expressed in thispaper are those of the author. They should not be interpretedas reflect- ing the views of the Commissionor the official opinion of any of its governmentalor research sponsors. MASTER PLANNING MONOGRAPH #4 ENROLMENT POTENTIAL POPULATION-ANALYSIS AND,PROJECT1ONS FOR ALBERTA POST=SECONDARY EDUCATION Conducted By NEIL W. J. CLARKE For The ALBERTA COLLEGES COMMISSION September, 1971 FOREWORD Master Planning Monograph 4 provides an analysis of the-Alberta population on both a regional and provincial basis, and developsenrolment projections for the provinCial system of,non-university post-secondaryand continuing education. The projections were developed using a pool method of projection wherebyf the pool of potential students was determined by Subtractingpro- jected tirSt did second year university enrolments from thetotal number of grade twelve students .qualified- ket the fiitt twoyears of poSt-secondary education. The pool was enlarged by adding potential adult studentsdrawn - from older age groups. Since university enrolments during the paSt twoyears appear to be lelieling off, the accuracy of projections basedon the pool method may be questionable. However, if university enrolments continue to fall below projected figures, the pool of potential non- university students is increased. Furthermore, if the potential university students who donot register in university programs perdeive college and other non-universityeducational programs as desirable alternatives, the projections containedin this mono- gtaph may be quite conservative. r--- - The study forms a part of the Alberta Colleges Commissionmaster - planning _project, and its findings will be used in developing a master plan 4 for non-university post-secondary and continuing educationin the Province of Alberta. The findings. of this study should also prove usefulto policy makes, planners and post-secondary education institutionsin Alberta and elsewhere in Canada. R. A. Bosetti, Director of Planning & ReSearch. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The writer wishes to acknowledge with thanks the assistance provided h- several individuals in the pl.iparation of this monograph: Bert I.oken, formerly of the Alberta Universities Commission', for historical and projected data on university enrolments; Jack Reid for data on Alberta grade 12 enrolMents; Norm Wuest of the Alberta Bureau of StatisticS for population data; Dick Yuen of the Department of Indian Affairs; Jack Mitchell and GeorgeCarterof the DiviSion of Vocational Education in the Alberta Department of Education; Ted Hawker of the Department of Agriculture; Dan Cornish, who compiled regional data on elementary-secondary school and university enrol-. ments; Public College Presidents; and; the members of the Master Planning .Project Steering ComMittee. Finally, the advice as well as the fast, accurate typing of Mrs. Joyce Bykewich is gratefully acknowledged. NWJC, October, 1971 ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page FOREWORD ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS LIST OF TABLES vi LIST OF FIGURES xi SUMMARY 'CHAPTER xii INTRODUCTION xii PURPOSE OF THE STUDY xii RELATED LITERATURE. xiii METHODOLOGIES AND ASSUMPTIONS xiii System Enrolment Project-ions XIII Regional Enrolment Projections xv Retrospective CoMments on the Methodology xvii SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS xix The Appendices xxix A Plea for Criticism xxix CHAPTER 1 : INTRODUCTION 1 NEED FOR THE STUDY 2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 3 SCOPE 4 Province of Alberta Population 5 College Region Populations 5 College Enrolments 5 iii iv Page Projection Period 7 LIMITATIONS 8 DEFINITIONS 10 METHODOLOCY 13 CHAPTER 2: THE ALBERTA POPULATION AND EDUCATIONAL ENROLMENTS 14 THE POPULATION OF ALBERTA 14 Projections of the Provincial Planning Branch 15 The Alberta'Bureau of Statistics" 16 The Oil and Gas Conservation Board 19 Preferred Projection of the Alberta Population 19 THE ALBERTA POPULATION BY AGE AND SEX 20 PROVINCIAL COLLEGE ENROLMENTS 22 Literature on College Systdm Enrolment Projections in Alberta 23 The Effect of Nature of Registration on Enrolments 26 THE "POOL METHOD" OF 'PROJECTING COLLEGE ENROLMENTS 29 The Grade 12 Pool 30 University Enrolments 34 Percentage of the Net Grade 12 Pool in Colleges 39 The Pool of Albertans Aged 25-39 Years 39 Extension Enrolments from the' 25-29 Age Group 41 SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 2 41 V Page Implications .. 43 Subsystem Enrolments 44 CHAPTER 3 : POPULATIONS AND COLLEGE ENROLMENTS IN EIGHT COLLEGE REGIONS IN ALBERTA. 47 INTRODUCTION 47 College agions 47 The Pool Method of-Projecting Enrolments Applied to-Regions 48 REGIONAL POPULATIONS 49 REGIONAL GRADE 12 ENROLMENTS - 52 NET GRADE 12 POOLS IN EIGHT REGIONS 63 THE PERCENTAGE OF THE NET GRADE 12 POOL ENROLLING AS FULL-TIME OR PART-TIME STUDENTS 74 PROJECTIONS OF SELECTED INSTITUTIONS OR PROGRAM ENROLMENTS IN COLLEGE REGIONS 77 Assumptions 77 Projections 79 SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 3 79 -BIBLIOGRAPHY 85 APPENDIX A 88 APPENDIX B 133 vi LIST OF TABLES Table Page S-1 Summary of College System and Subiystem Enrolment Projections xx S-2 Summary of College System and Public College Subsystem FUll-Time Plus Part-Time Enrolment Projections xxiv 1. Projections of the Alberta Population to 2001 . 17 2. Alberta Population by Selected Age Groups and r-, Sex, 1971 - 2001 21 3. Comparisons of College Enrolment Projections 24 4. Estimated Numbers of Persons Served by the College System (and L, Proprietoty'Schools) in Alberta, 1970 -71 4 27 5. Grade 12 Enrolments Compared to the Number of Students Who Entered Grade 1 Eleven.Years Previous 31 6. Grade 12 Enrolments 1970-71 to 1980-81 Based on Projected Rates of Retention in Grade 12 of the Original Number Enrolled in Grade 1 32 7. Provincial Grade 12 Enrolments to 2001 Based on the Projected 18-Year Population 35 8. First- and Second-Year University Enrolment Projections to 1981 and 2002 37 9. Summary of Projection Methodologies and Data and College EntolmentTrojections for Alberta, 1971-2001 38 10. Enrolment Projections in Selected Subsystems (And Comparisons Between Them and Projections From Other Sources) 45 11. Comparisons of College Region Population Projections 50 vii Table Page 12: Grade 12 Enioiment Projections for the Edmonton Region Based on Cohort Survival and Regional Population 53 13. Grade 12 Enrolment Projections for the Medicine Hat Region Based on Cohort Survival and Regional Population 54 14. Grade 12 Enrolment Projections foi the Lethbridge Region Based on Cohort Survival and Regional Population 55 .15. Grade 12 Enrolment Projections for the . Calgary Region Based on Cohort Survival and Regional Population 56 16. Grade 12 EnrolMent Projections_ for the Red Deer Region-Based on Cohort Survival and Regional Population 57 17. Grade 12 Enrolment Projections for the Grande Prairie Region. Based on Cohort Survival and Regional Population 58 18. Grade 12 Enrolment Projections for the Vermilion Region -Based on Cohort Survival and Regional Population 59 19. Grade 12 Enrolment Projections for the Fairview Region Based on Cohort Survival and Regional Population 60 20. Projections of College Enrolments in the Edmonton College Region 65 21. Projections of College Enrolments in the Medicine Hat Region 66 22. Projections of College Enrolments in the Lethbridge Region 67 23. Projections of College Enrolments in the Calgary Region 68 24. Projections of College Enrolments in the Red Deer Region 69 viii Table Page 25. Projections of College Enrolments in the Grande Prairie Region 70 26. Projections of College Enrolments in the Vermilion Region 71 27. Projections of College Enrolments in the Fairview Region 72 28. Summary of Regional Projections and Comparison of Regional and Provincial Enrolment Projections 76 29. Enrolment Projections for Selected Colleges or College Program in the Edmonton Region (and-Comparisons with Other Projections) 80 30. Enrolment Projections for Selected