Intelligence in Theory and Practice Israel Intelligence Community Commemoration and Heritage Center The world around us is changing at accelerating rates. The change is likewise evident in The Institute For Intelligence Methodology Research the phenomenon of war. The Internet has brought with it the information explosion and cyberspace. In the military domain of fire, new capabilities of precision and lethality have burgeoned. In addition, capabilities of electronic warfare and innovations in the world of command and control have changed the nature of war beyond recognition. INTELLIGENCE With the technology, the enemies have also changed—from a single-digit number of states to a changing and unending assortment of organizations and individuals. IN THEORY These organizations are working to prepare a campaign against Israel that is fraught with surprises, making use of innovative technology such as UAVs, fire capabilities, AND commando capabilities, and more. These changes make precise and relevant IN PRACTICE intelligence more crucial than ever. Today intelligence constitutes an essential compass a journal on intelligence methodology for initiative in battle, one that can direct the fire and maneuver efforts. The ability to a journal on intelligence methodology bring intelligence to the field and link it with operational activity, both defensive and Issue No. 2, NOVEMBER 2017 offensive, is the real test of the modern army. Hence, in today’s world an intelligence organization that aspires to relevance and influence must face new challenges, such as dealing with big data, with maneuver in cyberspace, and with perception as part of every campaign, and going forward, with Intelligence the incorporation of more and more instruments from the field of artificial intelligence. In grappling each day with the new challenges, we confront again and again the in a Time of same dilemma: how to achieve rapid change and relevance without sacrificing professionalism and professional identity. Rapid Change I would like to congratulate the Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center, and the editors and authors, for putting together the second issue of the journal. It is an important forum to promote the methodological conversation in the intelligence community. And I wish the readers valuable and thought-provoking reading. Intelligence in a Time of Rapid Change Gen. Herzi Halevi Director of Military Intelligence Israel Intelligence Community Commemoration and Heritage Center Issue No. 2 The Institute For Intelligence Methodology Research 157 INTELLIGENCE IN THEORY AND IN PRACTICE a journal on intelligence methodology Issue No. 2, NOVEMBER 2017 2 The journal Intelligence - in Theory and in Practice is intended to be a forum for a conversation on intelligence methodology for members of the intelligence community (present and past) and supporters of intelligence in Israel and the world. Editors: Yossi Kuperwasser and David Siman-Tov Advisory Committee: Lieut. Gen. (res.) Moshe Yaalon, Prof. Shlomo Avineri, Tamir Pardo, Prof. Azar Gat, Gen. (res.) Prof. Yitzhak Ben Israel, Gen. (res.) Aharon Zeevi (Farkash), Yitzhak Ilan, Gen. (res.) Giora Rom Advisory Committee: Lieut. Gen. (res.) Moshe Yaalon, Prof. Azar Gat, Prof. Shlomo Avineri, Tamir Pardo, Gen. (res.) Aharon Zeevi-Farkash, Gen. (res.) Dr. Yitzhak Ben Israel, Itzhak Ilan, Gen (res) Giora Rom Publisher: Effie Meltzer Graphic design: Ze’ev Eldar Translator: David Hornik Printing: Cordoba Printing & Binding Israel Intelligence Community Commemoration and Heritage Center The Institute For Intelligence Methodology Research Israel Intelligence Community Commemoration and Heritage Center, Aharon Yariv Boulevard, Ramat Hasharon Address for sending responses and articles: [email protected] Effi Melzer Research Publishing Ltd. NO MAN'S COGNITIVE ZON NO AAAAND ONINTELLIGENCE - IN THEORY AND IN PRACTICE TABLE OF CONTENTS 4 Foreword by the Director of Military Intelligence - Gen. Herzi Halevi 6 Introduction - the editors Change Within Intelligence Organizations 11 Bridge over Troubled Water: The Aman Endeavor in the World of Complexity Naomi Fassa Yosef and Sarit Shapira 30 Force Buildup in the Intelligence Community in a Changing Reality Yahel Arnon 40 A Tactical Technological Body as Bringing Change to the Field Intelligence Deployment Lieut. Col. (res.) A. V. The Characteristics of Intelligence Research and the Researcher in the Future 48 Does Intelligence Research Need to Change, and How? \ Col. (res.) A. H. 60 The “Information Research Officer”: A New Concept in Intelligence Research \ Maj. (res.) D. G. 67 The lack of in-depth understanding about objects researched by the intelligence community \ Michael Milstein Organizations Research 78 From Intelligence for the Campaign between the Wars to Intelligence in a Reality-Shaping Campaign \ Lt. Col. (res.) U. U. 84 The Phenomenon of Shelf Attacks as a Challenge to Early Warning \ First Lieut. S. A. (res.) and First Lieut. (res.) D. D. Strategic Intelligence 95 The Four Paths in the “Orchard” of Strategic Intelligence \ Doron Matza 115 Proactivism and a Reality-Shaping Approach: Main Aspects of the Methodological Concept in the Shabak Research Division \ S. 121 Intelligence Supervision: Creating Relevance in the Present Era \ Lieut. Col. S. and V.I. 131 Trendology in the Eyes of Intelligence \ Adi Yoffe and Dudi Siman-Tov A searchlight Beyond the Sea 138 Winston Churchill and Secret Intelligence During the Second World War \ Andrew Roberts Readers Comments 149 Supporting Jointness in Intelligence An Organizational-Cooperational Dimension Andreas Osel (MSc, M.A.) Foreword by the Director of Military Intelligence “It is change, continuing change, inevitable change, that is the dominant factor in society today. No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be.”1 The world around us is changing at accelerating rates. Never was the sentence by Asimov, who made use of the term robot already in the 1930s, as apposite as it is today. It appears it will be even more apposite in another decade, and even more in another hundred years. The change is likewise evident in the phenomenon of war. Indeed, the nature of war remains similar, with its human, political, and uncertainty characteristics. On the other hand, the Internet has brought with it the information explosion and cyberspace. In the military domain of fire, new capabilities of precision and lethality have burgeoned. In addition, capabilities of electronic warfare and innovations in the world of command and control have changed the nature of war beyond recognition. With the technology, the enemies have also changed—from a single-digit number of states to a changing and unending assortment of organizations and individuals. These organizations are working to prepare a campaign against Israel that is fraught with surprises, making use of innovative technology such as UAVs, fire capabilities, commando capabilities, and more. These changes make precise and relevant intelligence more crucial than ever. Today intelligence constitutes an essential compass for initiative in battle, one that can direct the fire and maneuver efforts. The ability to bring intelligence to the field and link it with operational activity, both defensive and offensive, is the real test of the modern army. As Asimov observed, when we make decisions we must consider the world as it will be. Hence, in today’s world an intelligence organization that aspires to relevance and influence must face new challenges, such as dealing with big data, with maneuver in cyberspace, and with perception as part of every campaign, and going forward, with the incorporation of more and more instruments from the field of artificial intelligence. In grappling each day with the new challenges, we confront again and again the same dilemma: how to achieve rapid change and relevance without sacrificing professionalism and professional identity. Hence, over the past two years, we have called the strategic process in Aman (Military Intelligence) “Bridges of Amity.” 1 Isaac Asimov, Jewish writer and one of the theorists in the field of robotics. 4 INTELLIGENCE - IN THEORY AND IN PRACTICE During these two years we have worked to build bridges between disciplines, between organizations, and even between states. The advantage of bridges is that they can enable us to remain separate and at the same time connected. Aman can maintain its wide and deep knowledge base and, at the same time, exchange knowledge, insights, and enhance its connectedness to our surroundings. I would like to congratulate the Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center, and the editors and authors, for putting together the second issue of the journal. It is an important forum to promote the methodological conversation in the intelligence community. And I wish the readers valuable and thought-provoking reading. Gen. Herzi Halevi Director of Military Intelligence 5 Introduction Before you is the second issue of the methodological journal Intelligence—in Theory and in Practice. The thread connecting the articles in this issue is the need for intelligence personnel to adapt their methods to the increasing pace and intensity of the changes both in the strategic environment and in the operative and technological environment. Methodological change is a challenge for any organization; it always entails pain and the difficulties of renouncing prior habits and traditions. Changes can also entail the dismantling