ANGOLA Food Security Update May 2007 In most of Angola, household food security is maintained by the favorable availability of food resulting from the February/March Figure 1. Current food security situation bean harvest and current harvests combined with imported maize, rice and pasta. Owing to favorable crop and pasture conditions during the current season and the good potential for household nacas planting in most of the country, it is likely that smallholders will remain food secure until February 2008. However, in four specific areas, food security is currently a concern and could deteriorate in the months ahead. These areas include Cunene, the southern districts of Uige, central Angola within Huambo and Benguela provinces and the eastern districts of Moxico. In addition, poor households in costal cities of Luanda and Benguela could be food insecure during the next lean period because of high retail prices for imported maize. Food security will also be aggravated by poor marketing conditions, including damaged roads, Source: FEWS NET Angola. and a lack of traders and transport that will inhibit the flow of goods from surplus producing areas and import points to deficit districts. Significant events timeline Current food security concerns There are four areas in Angola where households are moderately to highly food insecure and where food security conditions could deteriorate in months ahead. These areas include districts in southern Uige, Huambo and Benguela provinces in central Angola, Cunene and eastern Moxico. In addition, poor households in costal cities of Luanda and Benguela and deficit districts could face high retail prices for imported maize during the next lean period. Because of a prolonged dry spell In Cunene in the current season, the upcoming harvest – the only one of the year in this area – is expected to be below average. Agrarian communities that do not raise livestock already have limited reserves of cereals because of poor harvests in 2006 and lack the funds to access food in local markets. These groups include populations that emigrated from other parts of Angola during the civil war. The Vatua and Koissan are nomadic groups that rely on hunting, gathering wild food and agricultural labor for food and income. Because of the poor rainfall this season, wild food sources have been scarce and demand for agricultural labor much less than normal. Livestock farming households (which make up more than half of Cunene’s population) are able to make up for their poor harvests and access food by selling their animals and animal products at favorable terms of trade. However, there is a concern that the early start to livestock sales (which normally begin in September or October) will compromise livestock growth and subsequent ANGOLA Food Security Update May 2007 resilience to food insecurity in coming years. Distress selling will likely intensify due not only to the poor harvests but a reduced amount of water in the “chimpacas” (artificially made trenches to accumulate drinking water for animals) and a shortage of pasture in the highlands. Key informers in southern Uige continue to stress that households are moderately food insecure due to the negative impact of mosaic virus attack on cassava production. Household food security will only benefit next year from programs now being implemented by the government and NGOs. The start of the harvest has temporarily improved the food security of households in southwestern Huambo and eastern Benguela. However, the current harvest has been affected by intense rains that fell during the season. Furthermore, the previous year’s production was poor due to drought. The potential for nacas cultivation, which can provide households with fresh crops mid‐way between cereal harvests, is limited in this area by the extent of land available near rivers and water sources. Sustained government and NGO support to help households affected by intense rains and floods in districts of Quimbele, Songo, Mucaba and Ambuila in Uige, and in Alto Zambezi in Moxico will be required until the next harvest. Government and NGOs have provided affected households with a variety of goods including tents, clothes, kitchen material, food, seeds and other agricultural inputs. WFP activities, in partnership with the Ministry of Health, have, as of April 2007, helped some 15,000 children below five years of age in Huambo, Bie and Luanda to improve their nutritional status. WFP has also supported feeding programs that provided balanced food to more than 160,000 pupils in Bie and Huambo. Poor households in costal cities of Luanda and Benguela and in deficit districts could face high prices for imported maize during the next lean period. Poor production this year in South Africa has already led to unusually high prices in that country, and may cause prices of maize imported into Angola to soar. WFP activities in partnership with the Ministry of Social Affairs (MINARS) have reduced some of the negative effects of the floods, intense rains, crops diseases and poor 2005/06 harvests that could have compromised the food security and living conditions of about 27,000 organized returnees that arrived between January and April 2007 in the Zaire, Uige, Moxico, Lunda Sul, K. Kubango, Bie and Huambo. However, spontaneous returnees are not being assisted and may become food insecure during the lean period between August and November. A more detailed assessment of those four areas can provide an estimate about the number of food insecure households, their characteristics and subsequent identification. This information could be of value to decision and policy makers and program designers. Although the harvest has started, marketing activities are not yet fully underway. The main impediments to marketing crops are the poor condition of roads and the lack of vehicles for transport. Traders are waiting for the accumulation of significant volume of properly dried products. Intense rains have negatively affected road access, and consequently food availability and the delivery of services by the government, NGOs and traders. The road system of Uige province is one of the worse in Angola. The average speed of trucks there is about 15km/h from the provincial capital to the districts’ markets, compared with 36km/h for Benguela and 54km/h for Namibe. Poor road access between districts cities and the village and poor market activity force households to travel long distances to market places to buy food. Due to limited market activities in Curoca district in Cunene, for example, households cross to Namibia to sell animals and buy food. Rural incomes have begun to improve and will continue to improve as agricultural marketing activities intensify. Smallholders expect to earn income with the sale of cereals, roots, groundnut, vegetables, fruits, cooking banana and other products. Some non‐livestock farming households in Cunene have turned to the extraction and sale of charcoal, firewood and construction material as well as hunting. In Benguela, households also rely on agricultural employment during the harvest and trade to generate income. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 ANGOLA Food Security Update May 2007 Across the country, the price of cassava remains stable, given the surplus of about 5 million MT of fresh cassava that the northern region produced and the increased variety of substitute products such as imported maize flour, rice and pasta. In Cunene and Namibe, millet and sorghum prices have been stabilized by the steady flow of these grains from Namibia and Huila. Seasonal forecast and performance The period of April/May was characterized by normal rains that Figure 2. Maize crop conditions as of the 3rd dekad benefited crop production. The Water Requirement Satisfaction of May, 2007 Index (WRSI) indicates that maize crop conditions by the end of the season (3rd dekad of May) are favorable across much of the country (figure 2). There were no reports of intense rains during April and May. However, intense rains and floods during previous months continue to impact household food security situation in parts of Uige, Huambo, Benguela and Moxico. The negative impact on road system has also been much more significant than normal. Intense rains have reduced beans and groundnut yields and production due to leaching of nutrients and physical damage to Source: USGS. Crop conditions measured using the Water plants during their flowering stages. Assessments from Benguela Requirement Satisfaction Index. suggest that current yields for beans is below 20 percent (50kg/ha) of the average yield (450 kg/ha). During April and May, rains in the southern districts were normal. But in cumulative terms, most districts of Cunene, except Cuvelai, received below normal rains. This below normal rainfall, including extended days of dryness, has negatively impacted the production of sorghum, millet and cowpea. The WRSI in figure 2 indicates a very poor to normal maize crop conditions in these areas. Because the WRSI only shows the impact of localized rainfall, conditions in coastal Angola are better than they appear. Farmers in these areas irrigate their crops or plant along river banks as the floods recede. Production outlook Food availability in local markets and food access at the producer level will continue to improve as the harvest intensifies between May and July. Early estimates suggest a growth in production of more than 3 percent, compared with last year’s production of about 674,305 MT. A more precise estimate of production will be provided by GSA/MINADER in the coming months. The majority of key informers agree that current food reserves will last up to between August and November, after which they should be supplemented by nacas harvests in most areas. Households in Cunene and other southern districts will not have of the opportunity to plant a second crop on nacas, and most will depend on the sale of livestock to purchase food in local markets.