HAZARDS OF PAK - INDIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAMMES: A SEARCH FOR SOLUTION (1974-2014) BY NAWAB SHER Thesis submitted for the fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy under the supervision of DR. MAMNOON AHMAD KHAN Presented to DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS FEDERAL URDU UNIVERSITY, KARACHI APRIL, 2018 1 BY THE GRACE OF ALMIGHTY ALLAH, THE MOST GRACIOUS AND MERCIFUL 2 DEDICATED To ALMIGHTY ALLAH To my wife and to my Respectable supervisor Dr Mamnoon Ahmad Khan 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First, I give glory to the ALLAH almighty for all his mercies in keeping me in good health throughout the period of research project. Second, I immensely owe a huge gratitude to my wife and best friend for all her encouragement and assistance to make this work possible. I equally wish to thank all my Teachers for their sound academic guidance and drilling. Most of all, my profound gratitude goes to Dr. Mamnoon Ahmad Khan for his mentorship and inspiration towards academic excellence. May ALLAH bless you all. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER ONE ............................................................................................................................... 14 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 14 1.1 Background of the Study ..........................................................................................................14 1.2 Statement of the Problem ..........................................................................................................22 1.3 Insurgency in Kashmir ..............................................................................................................33 1.4 Alleged Human rights violations by India ................................................................................35 1.5 Research Questions ...................................................................................................................39 1.6 Objectives of the Research ........................................................................................................39 1.7 Significance of the Research .....................................................................................................40 CHAPTER TWO .............................................................................................................................. 46 2 LITERATURE REVIEW .................................................................................................... 46 2.1 The First War of Kashmir 1947 ................................................................................................78 2.2 The Second War of Kashmir 1965............................................................................................79 2.3 Liberation War of Bangladesh 1971 .........................................................................................84 2.4 The Kargil War 1999 ................................................................................................................91 2.4.1 First Phase. ................................................................................................................ 94 2.4.2 Second Phase ............................................................................................................. 94 2.4.3 Third Phase ................................................................................................................ 94 2.5 Other Confidence Building Measures .......................................................................................96 2.5.1 Cultural Ties ............................................................................................................ 102 2.5.2 Geographic Ties ...................................................................................................... 103 2.5.3 Linguistic ties .......................................................................................................... 104 2.5.4 Matrimonial ties ...................................................................................................... 104 2.5.5 Sports ties ................................................................................................................ 105 2.5.6 Diasporic Ties ......................................................................................................... 106 2.6 Literature Shortcomings..........................................................................................................111 CHAPTER THREE .........................................................................................................................113 3 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................. 113 3.1 Theoretical Framework ...........................................................................................................113 3.2 Application of Research ..........................................................................................................114 3.3 Hypotheses ..............................................................................................................................116 3.4 Research Design......................................................................................................................117 3.5 Data Collection Methodology .................................................................................................118 3.6 Data Analysis Methodology ...................................................................................................118 3.7 Operationalization of Key Concepts Nuclear Warfare ...........................................................160 3.8 Peace .......................................................................................................................................161 3.9 Conflict ...................................................................................................................................162 CHAPTER FOUR ........................................................................................................................... 163 4 SCENARIO OF NUCLEAR WAR BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN .................. 163 4.1 Nuclear Possessions of Pakistan and India .............................................................................164 5 4.2 Primary Scenario: 10 Large Cities of India and Pakistan with 15 kiloton Bomb (Air Burst) ..........................................................................................................................................165 4.3 Secondary Scenario: 10 large cities of India and Pakistan with 25 Kilotons (Ground Burst) ...................................................................................................................................168 4.4 India and Pakistan: Possible Failure of Nuclear Deterrence ...................................................173 4.5 Arms race ................................................................................................................................178 4.6 The United States and Nuclear Weapons of South Asia .........................................................182 4.7 Aftermaths of Nuclear War Between Pakistan and India .......................................................188 4.8 Options for Pakistan ................................................................................................................198 4.9 Relative Analysis with other Asian Countries ........................................................................200 4.9.1 Iran .......................................................................................................................... 200 4.9.2 North Korea ............................................................................................................. 206 4.9.3 China ....................................................................................................................... 209 CHAPTER FIVE ............................................................................................................................ 215 5 MEASURES TO ESTABLISH THE PEACEFUL RELATIONS BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN ............................................................................................................... 215 5.1 Recommended Solutions for the Issue of Kashmir.................................................................218 5.2 Plebiscite by the UNO ............................................................................................................220 5.3 Trusteeship Choice by UNO ...................................................................................................221 5.4 Sovereign State .......................................................................................................................221 5.5 The way forward .....................................................................................................................222 5.6 How to Minimize Nuclear Dangers in South Asia .................................................................223 5.7 Borders Issues in South Asia ..................................................................................................224 5.8 Tactics for Universal Weapons regulating / Fissile Demilitarization .....................................230 5.9 The Achievements by Nonproliferation Treaty ......................................................................245