Photovoltaic on the rise From the sun, to the future of energy Amareleja, Portugal - Part of the 62 MW Moura Photovoltaic Power Station built with more than 376.000 solar panels [2] – Bologna, October 19, 2015. [email protected] ; www.energyhunters.it ; www.you-net.eu “The use of solar energy has not been opened up because the oil industry does not own the sun.” ― Ralph Nader Washington DC, 1979 - President Jimmy Carter explain the motivation of insatllation of thermal solar panels on the withe house, wishing for a future with no dependance on oil sources, after the 1979 energy crisis Energyhunters & YouNet - Photovoltaic on the rise - , Bologna, October 16, 2015 – www.energyhunters.it 2 Contents: PART 1 – ABOUT PV • About the author and the aim of the presentation 4 • Photovoltaic in numbers, were are we 6 • Photovoltaic in numbers, why we are here 13 • Photovoltaic potential, what we can do 20 PART 2 – INSTRUMENTS, WHAT TO KNOW: • Technology review – PV basics 25 • PV footprint 31 • Technology review – Type of PV cell 36 • Leveized cost of energy – LCOE 37 PART 3 • History of photovoltaic: • The beginning and the experimental phase 41 • The space invasion and propulsion 45 • The commercial phase – subsides age and CO2 problem 39 • Today – entering in the grid parity 54 PART 4 • Where are we going – photovoltaic technology trends 56 • Where are we going – photovoltaic market trend 58 • Photovoltaic in Bulgaria – the beginning is now 62 • Miscellaneous: • Photovoltaic panel aging 64 • Losses in PV systems 65 • Centralized vs distributed energy 68 • Conclusion and references 70 Energyhunters & YouNet - Photovoltaic on the rise - , Bologna, October 19, 2015 – www.energyhunters.it 3 AIM of the presentation The aim of this presentation is to give you a complete overview of the world of photovoltaic. The overview is driven by the following topics: • To understand the roole of photovoltaic in the global scenario • To understand WHY photovoltaic can lead the future scenario and the market of energy in the future • To understand HOW it will do • To understand WHEN it will happen Energyhunters & YouNet - Photovoltaic on the rise - , Bologna, October 19, 2015 – www.energyhunters.it 4 WHY A PRESENTATION ON PHOTOVOLTAIC? Esun ≅ 4200 Because is totally free of pollution Eneeded source of energy 1E+17 6700000000000 Because solar energy is the form of 1E+16 0000 energy that need less sel power to 1E+15 be operated (around 1%) and this is 1E+14 due to a simple reason: 1E+13 1600000000000 Energy Energy logscale [kWh] photovoltaic panels doesn’t 1E+12 0 moove. 1E+11 1E+10 Because the price of energy 1E+09 produced by fossil fuel is by now 100000000 competitive in most of the developed 10000000 countries and it will be always 1000000 lower time by time. 100000 10000 Because is reliable 1000 100 Because the sun provide much 10 more energy that human need and 1 Annual world Annual energy need the availability of this source is energy need for delivered from the sun simply everywere. all use [kWh] to earth [kWh] Energyhunters & YouNet - Photovoltaic on the rise - , Bologna, October 19, 2015 – www.energyhunters.it 5 Part 1 - Photovoltaic in numbers – Where we are ° 0% Growth of China total energy consumption; 1st time in 17 years; Gross domestic product +7,3% same period ° 1$, are the subsides that in 2011, according to IEE (International Energy Agecy ) were give to renewable energy sources every 4$ give to conventional sources of energy ° 1% is even the share of the global electricity demand that now photovoltaic power provide in the world ° 3% is the share of global electricity demand that could be probably covered by photovoltaic in the world by 2019 ° 1 to 3,5 is the energy footprint of a solar panel depending on the technology used ° 8% is the share of energy covered by photovoltaic in Italy in 2014 and it is probably underestimated ° 19 GWp is the photovoltaic power that will be installed worldwide in 2016 in the balanced scenario ° 21% is the share of global electricity demand that could be probably covered by photovoltaic in the world by 2050 ° 21,5% is the highest solar panel efficiency reached for a commercial solar panel – Sunpower X series 345 Wp [5] ° 40 GWp is the global installed power capacity reached in the only 2014, more than 2 times the all installed in Italy now. ° 46% is the highest solar cell efficiency reached by Soitec corporation and Fraunhofer laboratories in December 1st 2014 with a multi junction concentrated solar cell ° 75% is the mean photovoltaic price decline in the last 10 years ° 178 GWp is the global photovoltaic capacity actually installed in the world according to SPE [4] ° 540 GWp is the global photovoltaic capacity expected to be reach in 2019 according to SPE [4] ° 560 W is the rated power of the most powerful solar panel actually on the market [3] ° 579 MWp is the power of the world largest solar farm named Solar Star and placed in Rosamond, California built with more thant 1.700.000 solar panel ° 1290 kWh/kWp is the world average productivity of photovoltaic plants in the world and this is not a good news ° 20301 TWh is the yearly global electricity consumption at the end of 2014 according to enerdata [6] ° 2.273.000 are the employers of the photovoltaic sector worldwide, according to IRENA [7] ° 174.000.000.000.000.000 Wh every hour is the the amount of energy delivered from the sun to the earth, this correspond to more than 75.000 time the energy requested for the all human activity Energyhunters & YouNet - Photovoltaic on the rise - , Bologna, October 19, 2015 – www.energyhunters.it 6 Part 1 - Photovoltaic in numbers – Where we are World solar irradiation – 22 years observation mean values. Credit: NASA Values are expressed in kWh/(m 2·year) = ,,, [ ] Energyhunters & YouNet - Photovoltaic on the rise - , Bologna, October 19, 2015 – www.energyhunters.it 7 Part 1 - Photovoltaic in numbers – Where we are Where are the installations? Where are the world areas with more power installed? -20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 20166 North america Europe 87909 Asia 58905 Africa 922 South America 401 Oceania 4136 Values expressed in photovoltaic peak power[MWp] Energyhunters & YouNet - Photovoltaic on the rise - , Bologna, October 19, 2015 – www.energyhunters.it 8 Part 1 - Photovoltaic in numbers – Where we are Where is the higher potential? Mean values of photovoltaic plant productivity expressed in kWh/kWp 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 North america 1392 Europe 1114 Asia 1485 Africa 1949 South america 1763 Oceania 1856 Energyhunters & YouNet - Photovoltaic on the rise - , Bologna, October 19, 2015 – www.energyhunters.it 9 Part 1 - Photovoltaic in numbers – Where we are Where is the higher potential? 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 NorthNorth americaamerica World mean value [kWh/kWp]: 1290 EuropeEurope AsiaAsia Theoretical optimal utilization [MWh] 336049123,2 Share of world energy demand covered 1,66% optimized [%] Gain [%] 150,349% AfricaAfrica SouthSouth America america OceaniaOceania With the seame Energyhunters & YouNet - Photovoltaic on the rise - , Bologna, October 19, 2015 – www.energyhunters.it 10 Part 1 - Photovoltaic in numbers – Where we are Energyhunters & YouNet - Photovoltaic on the rise - , Bologna, October 19, 2015 – www.energyhunters.it 11 Part 1 - Photovoltaic in numbers – Where we are Where is the higher potential? Actually 95% of the photovoltaic power is installed in low/medium irradiance areas of the planet Actual energy produced worlwide by photovoltaic [MWh] 223.512.233 Share of world energy demand covered[%] 1,10% World best irradiance AREA Theoretical maximum enegy production with actual power [MWh] 336.049.123 Share of world energy demand covered optimized [%] 1,66% Gain [%] 150% Where is the real BIG future of photovoltaic? Energyhunters & YouNet - Photovoltaic on the rise - , Bologna, October 19, 2015 – www.energyhunters.it 12 Part 1 Part -1 – numbers Photovoltaic in Worldwide power installed per year [MWp/year] power yearly VS PV modules of price consider Let’s 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 Energyhunters - & YouNet Photovoltaicrise - the on B , 0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 [c$/W]) photovoltaic Watt per (Cost Potenza [MWp/year]) year per installed (Power Potenza [c$/W] photovoltaic Watt per Cost [MWp/year] year per installed Power 1991 VS installationphotovoltaic yearly Watt Price per 1992 1993 1994 future the in and now photovoltaic of trend Perioduncertainty of - WHY? 1995 1996 1997 1998 Why we are we are Whyhere ologna, October ologna, – 2015 19, www.energyhunters.it 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 economic the understand to worldwide installation 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 [1986 - 2020] 2012 2013 2014 2015 (predicted) 2016 (predicted) 2017 (predicted) 2018 (predicted) 2019 (predicted) 2020 (predicted) 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 30,00 35,00 Photovoltaic module cost per watt [c$/W] watt per cost module Photovoltaic 13 Part 1 Part -1 – numbers Photovoltaic in Cumulagtive worldwide installed capacity [MWp] 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 Energyhunters - & YouNet Photovoltaicrise - the on B , 0 1986 1987 1988 Oil price (BRENT) [$/barrel] (BRENT) price Oil [MWp] installed power Cumulative 1989 Oil price VS Cumulative worldwidepower [ price installedCumulative OilVS 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 The answer, is answer, The 1996 Let’s take a clooser look clooser a take Let’s 1997 1998 1999 we are Whyhere ologna, October ologna, – 2015 19, www.energyhunters.it 2000 2001 also (non only) (non also 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 price oil the in 2009 2010 2011 -1986 2020] 2012 2013 2014 2015… 2016… 2017… 2018… 2019… 2020… 0,00 20,00 40,00 60,00 80,00 100,00 120,00 Barrel of oil price [$/barrel] price oil of Barrel 14 Part 1 - Photovoltaic in numbers – Why we are here What is the GRID PARITY? The photovoltaic market, since from the beginning, was characterized by the classical experience curve of price or expertise curve .