POWER 28 Years SWEEP FOURTEEN NFL $ 00 POWER SWEEPS 2007-’11 www.ncsports.com25 (ALL ★’S WINNING) © 2011 Northcoast Sports Service Volume 29 Issue 16 & 17 Dec. 17, 2011 - Jan. 9, 2012 1-800-654-3448 ★ 35 BOWL DOUBLE ISSUE! ★ BOWL ISSUE 82-46 64% LAST 4 YEARS!!! NFL SELECTIONS FOR WK 15 & 16 INSIDE! NORTHCOAST SPORTS SERVICE P.O. BOX 450829 CLEVELAND, OHIO 44145 NEWS AND NOTES DOUBLE BOWL ISSUE playing 7 gms vs teams with winning records but played our #1 toughest schedule including games This issue of Power Sweep is a special double issue which has 35 bowl game forecasts against #4 Stanford, #5 USC & #6 Oregon. Per the NCAA, Wyoming faced the #62 toughest plus the 15th & 16th weeks of the NFL. This action-packed double issue traditionally does schedule with an opp W/L % of 50.4% facing 6 teams with winning records but took on our #98 exceptionally well, with a 23 year record of 64% on the ★ basis. This is our biggest and best schedule facing 2 FBS opp (Weber St & Texas St). UCLA had the toughest slate among bowl bowl issue ever, as it contains many Key Selections for the bowls and is 32 FULL pages!!!! teams (finished 6-7) and Ohio had the easiest. The 2011 bowl teams are in boldface. Let’s go over this super Double Bowl Issue so you can utilize it to the fullest. All of the Bowl 1 UCLA 31 Alabama 61 Northwestern 91 Utah St Selections are rated from 1★ to 4★ with 4★’s being the highest. 3★ & 4★ Selections are 2 Iowa St 32 Boston College 62 Louisville 92 BYU considered Key Selections. 2★’s are considered Other Selections. The 1★ plays are very 3 Colorado 33 Florida 63 Virginia 93 Miami, Oh light selections and are to be played nowhere near as strong as the Key Selections. We have 4 Kansas 34 Duke 64 Navy 94 Kent St a half page dedicated to EVERY bowl game which should provide every piece of information 5 Mississippi 35 Nebraska 65 Florida St 95 Troy that you will need. Read each bowl write-up and we think you will find them to be the most 6 Baylor 36 Kentucky 66 Iowa 96 ULM in-depth write-ups available. We supply much more information than just our selections for 7 Arizona 37 Rice 67 Boise St 97 WKU this year’s bowl games. 8 Oregon St 38 Washington St 68 New Mexico St 98 Wyoming Included in this issue are our exclusive Power Plays forecasts for each game. Power 9 Oklahoma St 39 Clemson 69 East Carolina 99 Southern Miss Plays takes into account things like: strength of opponents faced, and is adjusted after 10 Texas 40 Georgia 70 Purdue 100 Colorado St games for weather, garbage yards, injuries, etc. It is the most accurate set of power ratings 11 Auburn 41 Arkansas 71 Fresno St 101 UCF in the country. These forecasts give you a projected box score for each game so you can 12 Oklahoma 42 Miami, Fl 72 UAB 102 TCU see a possible outcome for the game. The forecasts include yards rushing, yards passing, 13 Texas A&M 43 Tulsa 73 Idaho 103 Tulane turnovers, special teams edges and, of course, a score based on the Power Plays ratings. 14 Washington 44 Ohio St 74 Louisiana Tech 104 Bowling Green 15 USC 45 South Carolina 75 North Texas 105 Cent Michigan They also list the average opponent power rating of the teams that they faced this year. 16 Minnesota 46 Marshall 76 West Virginia 106 Buffalo Keep in mind these projections are based solely on the Power Plays statistical formulas. Our 17 Tennessee 47 North Carolina 77 Connecticut 107 Memphis Power Sweep projected winner at the bottom of each bowl takes into account ALL factors, 18 Notre Dame 48 Michigan 78 USF 108 Middle Tenn including the Power Plays numbers, emotion, bowl experience, talent matchups, turf edge, 19 Stanford 49 Penn St 79 Ball St 109 Akron momentum, special teams, coaching, etc. Many times the intangibles in bowls outweigh the 20 Missouri 50 New Mexico 80 Wisconsin 110 Houston pure statistical forecasts. We supply the projected forecasts at the top of the page to give 21 Kansas St 51 Illinois 81 NC State 111 Air Force you some solid statistical information. 22 LSU 52 Wake Forest 82 UTEP 112 Louisiana On page 32 of this newsletter you’ll find the Computer Corner Power Ratings forecasts 23 California 53 Indiana 83 Georgia Tech 113 Northern Illinois for the bowls. The Computer Corner Plays are rated in different categories and, of course, 24 Vanderbilt 54 UNLV 84 Rutgers 114 Western Michigan the higher the difference between the Computer Forecast and the actual Vegas Line, the 25 Maryland 55 Michigan St 85 Florida Atlantic 115 Hawaii stronger the play is. They are strictly the computer’s forecast & do not take into account all 26 Mississippi St 56 San Jose St 86 Cincinnati 116 East Michigan the intangibles that our overall write-ups do. These projections have done very well through 27 Texas Tech 57 Syracuse 87 Nevada 117 FIU the years. The bowl checklists included with each bowl write-up are invaluable as every 28 Arizona St 58 Pittsburgh 88 Toledo 118 Arkansas St stat and ranking is analyzed with checks going to the better unit. Each check represents 29 Utah 59 SMU 89 San Diego St 119 Temple approximately one point. 30 Oregon 60 Virginia Tech 90 Army 120 Ohio Page 28 will be our Pro Selections for Week 16 in the NFL. These selections will be made Above ratings are based on overall strength of schedule. Now take a look at the toughest on Sunday (Dec 11th) two weeks before the games are played. The Week 15 results will be schedules of opponents units faced: unknown. This is not easy to do as the Week 15 results will determine the next week’s selec- Rush Offenses - Here are the teams that took on the 10 toughest slates of rushing offenses: tions as well as playoff chances. Due to that uncertainty we will not have an NFL 4★ for that 1.) Notre Dame, 2.) Kansas, 3.) Miami, FL, 4.) Texas, 5.) Purdue, 6.) Penn St, week, but we will have ★ rated Key Selections. The last 2 years we forecasted the NFL Week 7.) Texas Tech, 8.) Oklahoma, 9.) Boise St, 10.) Oklahoma St 16 two weeks in advance and went 5-1 on the Key Selections (13-3 on ★’s)!! We do put a Pass Offenses - Here are the teams that took on the 10 toughest slates of passing offenses: lot of work into the advance forecasts and they have done well throughout the years. 1.) Stanford, 2.) UCLA, 3.) Washington, 4.) Oregon, 5.) Utah, 6.) Arizona, 7.) Texas, The staff here at Northcoast Sports would like to wish you & your family Happy Holidays 8.) Oregon St, 9.) Oklahoma St , 10.) California & a prosperous New Year. As always, thank you for reading Power Sweep. We hope to hear Rush Defenses - Here are the teams that took on the 10 toughest slates of rush defenses: from you in our questionnaire which will be coming in the next couple of issues. 1.) Tennessee, 2.) Pittsburgh, 3.) Mississippi, 4.) Syracuse, 5.) Colorado, 6.) USC, Who Faced the Toughest Schedule in 2011? 7.) Auburn, 8.) UCLA, 9.) Wake Forest, 10.) Iowa St 10.) Miami, FL What makes our Toughest Opponents Faced rank- Pass Defenses - Here are the teams that took on the 10 toughest slates of pass defenses: ings far superior to the NCAA method is that ours 1.) Colorado, 2.) Oregon St, 3.) Oregon, 4.) Utah, 5.) UCLA, 6.) Arizona St, 7.) UNLV, takes into account 9 sets of power ratings, combines 8.) Tennessee, 9.) Illinois, 10.) Washington them and factors in every team’s schedule this year. Total Offenses - Here are the teams that took on the 10 toughest slates of total offenses: We did this not only for the bowl teams, but for all 1.) Kansas, 2.) Oklahoma St, 3.) Texas, 4.) UCLA, 5.) Oregon St, 6.) Oregon, 7.) Oklahoma, 8.) Stanford, 9.) Texas A&M, 10.) Colorado the NCAA teams & found out which teams played Total Defenses - Here are the teams that took on the 10 toughest slates of total defenses: the toughest schedules this year. UCLA ranked #30 1.) Tennessee, 2.) Mississippi, 3.) Kentucky, 4.) Auburn, 5.) Alabama, 6.) LSU, 7.) Florida, in the NCAA rankings with an opp W/L % of 55.1% 8.) Vanderbilt, 9.) Georgia, 10.) UCLA Date Bowl Game Time (ET) TV TEAM VS TEAM NC LINE TTL Dec. 17 New Mexico Bowl 2:00 pm ESPN Temple vs Wyoming 2 6' 47' Dec. 17 Idaho Potato Bowl 5:30 pm ESPN Utah St vs Ohio E 2' 57' NFL GAME OF THE YEAR Dec. 17 New Orleans Bowl 9:00 pm ESPN Louisiana vs San Diego St 5 5 58' TH Dec. 20 St Petersburg Bowl 8:00 pm ESPN FIU vs Marshall E 4 48' SUNDAY • DEC 18 11:00 AM EST Dec. 21 Poinsettia Bowl 8:00 pm ESPN Louisiana Tech vs TCU 6 10' 55' Dec. 22 Las Vegas Bowl 8:00 pm ESPN Arizona St vs Boise St 9 14 66 ‘07-11 REG SSN GAMES OF MONTH (Y) FAV is Underlined FAV Dec. 24 Hawaii Bowl 8:00 pm ESPN Nevada vs Southern Miss NL 6 NL Dec. 26 Independence Bowl 5:00 pm espn2 North Carolina vs Missouri 3 4' 52' Dec.