GRATEFUL APPRECIATION TO PARTNERS The U.S. Department of Energy would like to acknowledge the in-depth analysis and extensive research conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the major contributions and manuscript reviews by the American Wind Energy Association and many wind industry organizations that contributed to the production of this report. The costs curves for energy supply options and the WinDS modeling assumptions were developed in cooperation with Black & Veatch. The preparation of this technical report was coordinated by Energetics Incorporated of Washington, DC and Renewable Energy Consulting Services, Inc. of Palo Alto, CA. All authors and reviewers who contributed to the preparation of the report are listed in Appendix D. NOTICE This report is being disseminated by the Department of Energy. 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Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831-0062 phone: 865.576.8401 fax: 865.576.5728 email: mailto:[email protected] Available for sale to the public, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Commerce National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 phone: 800.553.6847 fax: 703.605.6900 email: [email protected] online ordering: http://www.ntis.gov/ordering.htm Printed on paper containing at least 50% wastepaper, including 20% postconsumer waste 20% Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energy’s Contribution to U.S. Electricity Supply DOE/GO-102008-2567 • July 2008 More information is available on the web at: www.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy08osti/41869.pdf July 2008 Table of Contents Acronyms ..................................................................................... xi Chapter 1. Executive Summary & Overview ...........................1 1.1 Introduction and Collaborative Approach......................................... 1 1.1.1 Scope....................................................................................................2 1.1.2 Contributors .........................................................................................3 1.1.3 Assumptions and Process.....................................................................3 1.1.4 Report Structure ...................................................................................4 1.1.5 Setting the Context: Today’s U.S. Wind Industry ...............................5 1.2 Scenario Description............................................................................. 7 1.2.1 Wind Geography ..................................................................................8 1.2.2 Wind Power Transmission and Integration........................................11 1.2.3 Electrical Energy Mix ........................................................................12 1.2.4 Pace of New Wind Installations.........................................................12 1.3 Impacts................................................................................................. 13 1.3.1 Greenhouse Gas Reductions ..............................................................13 1.3.2 Water Conservation............................................................................16 1.3.3 Energy Security and Stability.............................................................17 1.3.4 Cost of the 20% Wind Scenario.........................................................18 1.4 Conclusion ........................................................................................... 20 1.5 References and Other Suggested Reading........................................ 20 Chapter 2. Wind Turbine Technology.....................................23 2.1 Introduction......................................................................................... 23 2.2 Today’s Commercial Wind Technology ........................................... 24 2.2.1 Wind Resources .................................................................................24 2.2.2 Today’s Modern Wind Turbine .........................................................25 2.2.3 Wind Plant Performance and Price ....................................................26 2.2.4 Wind Technology Development ........................................................28 2.2.5 Current Turbine Size..........................................................................29 2.2.6 Current Status of Turbine Components..............................................30 2.3 Technology Improvements on the Horizon ...................................... 34 2.3.1 Future Improvements to Turbine Components ..................................35 2.3.2 Learning-Curve Effect .......................................................................39 2.3.3 The System Benefits of Advanced Technology.................................40 2.3.4 Targeted RD&D.................................................................................42 2.4 Addressing Technical and Financial Risks....................................... 43 2.4.1 Direct Impacts....................................................................................44 2.4.2 Indirect Impacts..................................................................................45 2.4.3 Risk Mitigation Through Certification, Validation, and Performance Monitoring....................................................................46 2.5 Offshore Wind Technology ................................................................ 48 2.5.1 Cost of Energy ...................................................................................49 2.5.2 Current Technology ...........................................................................49 20% Wind Energy by 2030 i 2.5.3 Technology Needs and Potential Improvements................................50 2.6 Distributed Wind Technology ........................................................... 54 2.6.1 Small Turbine Technology.................................................................54 2.6.2 Technology Trends.............................................................................55 2.7 Summary of Wind Technology Development Needs ....................... 56 2.8 References and Other Suggested Reading........................................ 58 Chapter 3. Manufacturing, Materials, and Resources.......... 61 3.1 Raw Materials Requirements ............................................................ 62 3.2 Manufacturing Capability ................................................................. 65 3.2.1 Current Manufacturing Facilities .......................................................66 3.2.2 Ramping Up Energy Industries..........................................................69 3.3 Labor Requirements........................................................................... 70 3.3.1 Maintaining and Expanding Relevant Technical Strength.................70 3.4 Challenges to 20% Wind Energy by 2030 ........................................ 72 3.4.1 Challenges..........................................................................................72 3.5 References and Other Suggested Reading........................................ 73 Chapter 4. Transmission and Integration into the U.S. Electric System....................................................... 75 4.1 Lessons Learned.................................................................................. 76 4.1.1 Wind Penetration Experiences and Studies........................................76 4.1.2 Power System Studies Conclude that 20% Wind Energy Penetration Can Be Reliably Accommodated....................................77 4.1.3 Wind Turbine Technology Advancements Improve System Integration ..........................................................................................83 4.1.4 Wind Forecasting Enhances System Operation .................................86 4.1.5 Flexible, Dispatchable Generators Facilitate Wind Integration .........86 4.1.6 Integrating an Energy Resource in a Capacity World........................87 4.1.7 Aggregation Reduces Variability.......................................................89 4.1.8 Geographic Dispersion Reduces Operational Impacts.......................90 4.1.9 Large Balancing Areas Reduce Impacts ............................................91 4.1.10 Balancing