REINDEER HERDING, WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA, ALASKA By Kumi L. Rattenbury RECOMMENDED: ___________________________________________ ___________________________________________ ___________________________________________ Advisory Committee Chair ___________________________________________ Assistant Chair, Department of Biology and Wildlife APPROVED: _________________________________________________ Dean, College of Natural Science and Mathematics _________________________________________________ Dean of the Graduate School _________________________________________________ Date REINDEER HERDING, WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA, ALASKA A THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the University of Alaska Fairbanks in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE By Kumi L. Rattenbury, B.A. Fairbanks, Alaska December 2006 iii ABSTRACT Intrinsic to the discussion about climate change is the effect of daily weather and other environmental conditions on natural resource-based livelihoods. Reindeer herders on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska have relied on specific conditions to conduct intensive herding in response to winter range expansion by the Western Arctic Caribou Herd (WAH). From 1992 to 2005, over 17,000 reindeer (affecting 13 of 15 herds) were lost due to mixing and emigration with the WAH. An interdisciplinary case study with one herder provided insights about the role of weather within the social-ecological system of herding. Inclement conditions disrupted herding plans at the same time that a smaller herd, diminished antler markets, and rising fuel costs have been disincentives to continue herding. Travel-limiting conditions, such as reduced visibility, delayed freeze-up, and early break-up, were implicated in herd loss to caribou or predators by several herders. However, these conditions have rarely been measured by climate change research, or they involve combinations of environmental factors that are difficult to quantify. If such events occur more frequently, as predicted by local residents and climate change models, herders will have to adapt to shorter and warmer winters, along with the continued presence of caribou in the region. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Signature Page …………………………………………………………………………….i Title Page ………………………………………………………………………………....ii Abstract …………………………………………………………………………………..iii Table of Contents ………………………………………………………………………...iv List of Figures …………………………………………………………………………..viii List of Tables …………………………………………………………………………......x List of Appendices …………………………………………………………………….....xi Acknowledgements ……………………………………………………………………...xii Chapter 1 - INTRODUCTION ..…………………………...……………………...........1 1.1 Climate change, caribou and reindeer herding ………….……………...…….3 1.2 Climate change and Arctic communities ...…………………………………...5 1.3 Adaptability in social-ecological systems ...…………………………………..6 1.4 Climate change, SES’s and the case for interdisciplinary case studies…..….10 1.5 Study approach .…….………………………………………………………..13 1.6 Thesis structure ………….……………………………………………….….16 Chapter 2 - BACKGROUND INFORMATION ………………...…………………...18 2.1 Reindeer herding on the Seward Peninsula…………………………….……18 2.1.1 History of reindeer herding in Alaska, 1891-1988 …………..........18 v Page 2.1.2 Modern reindeer herding on the Seward Peninsula..………….….. 19 2.2 Case study: James Noyakuk of Teller, Alaska ………………………………26 2.2.1 Study area: Noyakuk’s range……..……………………….….……26 2.2.2 Noyakuk’s family history and training in herding………….….…..27 2.2.3 Establishment and history of the Noyakuk herd…..….………...….28 2.2.4 Caribou on the Noyakuk range …………………….…………...... 36 Chapter 3 - METHODS ...…..………………………………………………………… 38 3.1 Case study interviews …………………………………………………...…..38 3.1.1 Semi-directed interviews……………………...…………………...38 3.1.2 Structured phone survey about weather limitations….…..………...41 3.1.3 Regular phone conversations about daily herding activities….……42 3.1.4 Organization of interview information……………………….…....42 3.2 Weather stations……………………………………………………………...44 3.2.1 Weather station deployment and data used ……...……………….. 44 3.2.2 Weather data consolidation ………………………………………. 49 3.3 Linking Noyakuk’s activities and observations with weather station data .... 51 3.4 Snow measurements……….....…......………………………………………. 53 3.5 Mapping relationships between herding, reindeer, and caribou...…….……..54 3.5.1 Mapping reindeer locations ……………………………………..... 54 3.5.2 Caribou home range kernels on the Seward Peninsula ……...…… 58 vi Page Chapter 4 - RESULTS …………………………………………………………………60 4.1 Herding seasons, daily decisions, and the effects of weather and other environmental factors ..……...........……………………..……………… 60 4.1.1 Seasonal herding activities ……………..………………………… 60 4.1.2 Factors affecting daily herding decisions …...……..…………….. 64 4.1.3 Weather and other environmental concerns for herding…………...66 a. Freeze-up, mid-winter ice, and break-up…………………...…66 b. Visibility………………………………………………………70 c. Snow and other trail conditions…….………………………….71 d. Wind and air temperature……………………………………...76 4.2. Relating herding decisions to weather observations and weather station data…………………………………………………………………….…78 4.2.1 February 14 to May 29, 2004 a. Chronological account ……………………………………..…78 b. Ratings results ………………………………………………...85 4.2.2 October 1, 2004 to March 14, 2005 a. Chronological account …………………………………….… 97 b. December 1, 2004 to March 14, 2005: Ratings results..…….105 4.2.3 March 15 to May 31, 2005 a. Chronological account ……..………………………………..111 b. Ratings results ……………………………………………….117 vii Page Chapter 5 – DISCUSSION……………………………………………………...…….123 5.1 Weather and other environmental impacts to winter herd management in 2004 and 2005……………………………………......…………....………….123 5.1.1 Timing of freeze-up and break-up ………………...…………..…124 5.1.2 Visibility …….…………………..……………………………….127 5.1.3 Snow and other trail conditions ….……………………………....128 5.1.4 Temperature, wind, and windchill ………………...…………......129 5.2 The rating system…………………………………………………………...129 5.3 Terrain implications ………….…………………………………………….130 5.4 The social-ecological system (SES) of Seward Peninsula herding …..........132 5.4.1 Adaptations in herd management ……………….....……..………133 5.4.2 Technological adaptations: new opportunities …….……………..137 5.4.3 Socioeconomic constraints and opportunities ……………………139 5.5 Climate change and Noyakuk’s herding SES………………………………144 Chapter 6 – CONCLUSION.…………………………………………...…………….148 REFERENCES…………….………………………………………………..................152 APPENDICES…………………………………………………………………………163 viii LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1. Reindeer ranges and caribou use of the Seward Peninsula, 1989-2000..……..2 Figure 2. James Noyakuk moves his herd by snowmachine……..……………………...3 Figure 3. Weather station locations and Noyakuk’s seasonal range use, 2000-2005….24 Figure 4. Noyakuk’s seasonal range use, 1988-1992…………………………………..32 Figure 5. Number of reindeer at Noyakuk’s summer handlings, 1988-2005....………..33 Figure 6. Noyakuk’s seasonal range use, 1993-1995…………………………………..34 Figure 7. Noyakuk’s seasonal range use, 1995-1999…..…………………………........35 Figure 8. HOBO weather station deployment at Mayuguk…………………………….45 Figure 9. Noyakuk decision pyramid for daily herding activities.……………………..65 Figure 10. Wind-swept hill and HOBO weather station.….………………...…………..72 Figure 11. Sun-glazed snow and HOBO weather station at Teller airport.……………...73 Figure 12. Wind-hardened snow drifts, or sastrugi.…………………………………......74 Figure 13. Soft, deep snow associated with willows (Salix spp.) in a riparian area….....75 Figure 14. Visibility in Nome, February 15 to May 29, 2004………...………………....79 Figure 15. Weather station data, February 15 to May 29, 2004…………………………80 Figure 16. Daily maximum and minimum temperature and snow depth in Nome, Alaska, winter 2003-04 and 2004-05………………………...…………...….83 Figure 17. Locations of satellite-collared reindeer and caribou, February 15 to May 29, 2004…………………………………………………………………………..84 Figure 18. Workday average (a) wind speed, (b) temperature, and (c) windchill temperature (WCT) for Noyakuk’s good and poor rated days, February 15 to April 7, 2004....................................................................................................87 ix Page Figure 19. Wind roses for Noyakuk’s good and poor rated days, February 15 to April 7, 2004………...………………………………………………...……..89 Figure 20. Wind roses by season, February 15 to May 29, 2004…………….……..…...92 Figure 21. Visibility in Nome, October 1, 2004 to March 14, 2005……...……………..98 Figure 22. Weather station data, October 1, 2004 to March 14, 2005...……...…………99 Figure 23. Movements of Noyakuk’s satellite-collared steer, November 1, 2004 to April 1, 2005…………………………………..…………..………………..101 Figure 24. Locations of satellite-collared reindeer and caribou, October 1, 2004 to March 14, 2005…..………………………………………………………104 Figure 25. Workday average (a) wind speed, (b) temperature, and (c) windchill temperature (WCT) for Noyakuk’s good, minimal, and poor rated days, December 1, 2004 to March 14, 2005………………………………………107 Figure 26. Wind roses by season, October 1, 2004 to March 14, 2005………………..108 Figure 27. Wind roses for Noyakuk’s good, minimal, and poor rated days, December 1, 2004 and March 14, 2005.........................................................109 Figure 28. Visibility in Nome, March 15 to May 31, 2005…...………….…………….113 Figure 29. Weather station data, March 15 to May 31, 2005……….....……...………..114 Figure 30. Locations of Noyakuk’s satellite-collared reindeer, March 15 to May 31,