ESPON-TITAN Territorial Impacts of Natural Disasters Applied Research Final Report – Annex 2 Economic Impacts Analysis June 2021 This applied research activity is conducted within the framework of the ESPON 2020 Cooperation Programme. The ESPON EGTC is the Single Beneficiary of the ESPON 2020 Cooperation Programme. The Single Operation within the programme is implemented by the ESPON EGTC and co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund, the EU Member States, the United Kingdom and the Partner States, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. This delivery does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the members of the ESPON 2020 Monitoring Committee. Authors Koen Rademaekers, Lisa Korteweg, Foivos Petsinaris, Louis Eklund, Trinomics (The Netherlands) Dóra Fazekas, Jon Stenning, Boglárka Molnár, Cambridge Econometrics (United Kingdom) Olga Ivanova, independent expert (the Netherlands) Acknowledgements We want to thank the interviewees and other contacts that have given us important information to complete the case studies succesfully. Advisory Group Project Support Team: Adriana May, Lombardy Region (Italy), Marcia Van Der Vlugt, Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations, Spatial Development Directorate (the Netherlands) ESPON EGTC: Zintis Hermansons (Project Expert), Caroline Clause (Financial Expert) Information on ESPON and its projects can be found on www.espon.eu. 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Contact: [email protected] ISBN : 978-2-919816-06-4 ESPON-TITAN Territorial Impacts of Natural Disasters Table of contents List of Figures ......................................................................................................................... iii List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... iv Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................... vi Glossary ................................................................................................................................. vii 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 2 The Impact Pathways ......................................................................................................... 2 3 Application of the global methodology ............................................................................ 4 Global direct and indirect economic impacts of natural hazards .................................. 4 3.1.1 Database .......................................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 Methodology for economic impact calculations ............................................... 7 3.1.3 Direct economic impact calculation ................................................................. 8 3.1.4 Indirect economic impact calculation ............................................................... 9 3.1.5 Key results of the global approach ................................................................ 10 4 Application of the local methodology ............................................................................ 11 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 11 4.1.1 Prague, Czech Republic ................................................................................ 11 4.1.2 Charente-Maritime, France ............................................................................ 11 Methodology for economic impact calculation ............................................................ 12 4.2.1 Finetuning of the Damage Distribution Matrices ............................................ 12 4.2.2 Indirect economic impact calculation ............................................................. 12 Finetuning of the Damage Distribution Matrices ......................................................... 13 4.3.1 Prague, Czech Republic ................................................................................ 13 4.3.2 Charente-Maritime, France ............................................................................ 20 Calculation of the direct and indirect impacts at local level ........................................ 25 4.4.1 Prague, Czech Republic ................................................................................ 25 4.4.2 Charente-Maritime, France ............................................................................ 27 5 Conclusion and discussion ............................................................................................. 30 Comparison between the economic models ............................................................... 30 Comparison between the local and global outcomes ................................................. 30 6 References ........................................................................................................................ 31 General references ..................................................................................................... 31 References – Prague, Czech Republic ...................................................................... 31 References – Charente-Maritime, France .................................................................. 32 6.3.1 References for floods ..................................................................................... 32 6.3.2 References for windstorms ............................................................................ 35 6.3.3 References for earthquakes .......................................................................... 36 6.3.4 References for droughts ................................................................................ 37 7 Annex 2.A Overview and evaluation of validity and reliability of data and data sources to be used for the economic impact analysis................................................. 39 8 Annex 2.B Impact Pathways ............................................................................................ 42 B.1. Floods ....................................................................................................................... 43 Literature review ....................................................................................................... 43 Case study desk analysis ......................................................................................... 48 ESPON-TITAN - Territorial Impacts of Natural Disasters i Final Report Annex 2. Economic Impact Analysis B.2. Windstorms ............................................................................................................... 53 Literature review ....................................................................................................... 53 Case study desk analysis ......................................................................................... 55 B.3. Earthquakes ............................................................................................................. 60 Literature review ....................................................................................................... 60 Case study desk analysis ......................................................................................... 62 B.4. Droughts ................................................................................................................... 67 Literature review ....................................................................................................... 67 Case study desk analysis ......................................................................................... 71 Annex 2.C Methodology for the development of the Damage Distribution Matrices ..... 76 C.1. Floods ....................................................................................................................... 76 C.2. Windstorms .............................................................................................................. 85 C.3. Earthquakes ............................................................................................................. 89 C.4. Droughts ................................................................................................................... 93 ESPON-TITAN - Territorial Impacts of Natural Disasters ii Final Report Annex 2. Economic Impact Analysis List of Figures Figure 2.1 Combined Impact pathway for floods, droughts, windstorms and earthquakes ...... 3 Figure 3.1 Steps followed for the development of the global methodology .............................. 4 Figure 4.1 Floodplain map of the flood in 2013. Source: Institute for planning and development of Prague (IPR) (2020)..................................................................... 15 Figure 4.2 Overview of the structural flood protection measures for the city of Prague ......... 17 Figure 4.3 Medium-term direct and direct impacts on GDP in millions of Euros ..................... 26 Figure 4.4 Medium-term direct and direct impacts on GDP in millions of Euros ..................... 28 Figure 8.1. Split of damage costs among the different impact areas. ....................................