Liran Antebi 207 207 Memorandum Artificial Intelligence and National Security in Israel Liran Antebi Institute for National Security Studies The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), incorporating the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, was founded in 2006. The purpose of the Institute for National Security Studies is first, to conduct basic research that meets the highest academic standards on matters related to Israel’s national security as well as Middle East regional and international security affairs. Second, the Institute aims to contribute to the public debate and governmental deliberation of issues that are – or should be – at the top of Israel’s national security agenda. INSS seeks to address Israeli decision makers and policymakers, the defense establishment, public opinion makers, the academic community in Israel and abroad, and the general public. INSS publishes research that it deems worthy of public attention, while it maintains a strict policy of non-partisanship. The opinions expressed in this publication are the author’s alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute, its trustees, boards, research staff, or the organizations and individuals that support its research. Artificial Intelligence and National Security in Israel Liran Antebi Memorandum No. 207 February 2021 בינה מלאכותית וביטחון לאומי בישראל לירן ענתבי Institute for National Security Studies (a public benefit company) 40 Haim Levanon Street POB 39950 Ramat Aviv Tel Aviv 6997556 Israel E-mail: [email protected] http://www.inss.org.il Copyeditor: Ela Greenberg Graphic design: Michal Semo Kovetz and Yael Bieber, TAU Graphic Design Studio Printing: Digiprint Zahav Ltd., Tel Aviv © All rights reserved. February 2021 ISBN: 978-965-92806-9-8 Contents Artificial Intelligence and National Security in Israel: Main Points 6 Executive Summary 13 Preface: Artificial Intelligence—Why Now? 21 Introduction 25 Chapter One: What is Artificial Intelligence? 31 Chapter Two: Fields of Artificial Intelligence 41 Chapter Three: Widespread Security Applications 47 Chapter Four: Supported and Supporting Technologies 53 Chapter Five: General Artificial Intelligence 59 Chapter Six: The Global Status of Artificial Intelligence 63 Chapter Seven: Potential Effects on the International Arena 73 Chapter Eight: What Can Be Learned from the Autonomous Weapon Systems? 77 Chapter Nine: Artificial Intelligence in Israel 83 Chapter Ten: Artificial Intelligence, National Security in Israel, and the IDF Strategy 91 Chapter Eleven: Challenges in Using AI 97 Chapter Twelve: Conclusion and Recommendations 115 Notes 123 Artificial Intelligence and National Security in Israel: Main Points Artificial intelligence (AI) is a comprehensive name for information and computer systems that display intelligent behavior or create new insights and information. This is a groundbreaking technological field that can be implemented in a variety of applications with relative efficiency, at reasonable cost, and on a broad scale. This technological advancement affects many areas, including national security. For Israel, AI is a field of crucial importance, given that Israel is now one of the leading countries in its development—with its economic strength relying largely on the high-tech industry—and given that this technology has the potential to help cope with many challenges. AI includes many perceptual-technological areas, including machine learning, deep learning, computerized vision, natural language processing, and a number of ancillary interconnected technologies. In the security realm, AI is used in the following: Autonomous 24 Logistics Intelligence driving Cyber and electromagnetic Planning and Autonomous spectrum warfare and simulation weapon systems security Robotics and Prediction, warning, Command and autonomous systems and prevention of control (land, air, sea) disasters Swarms These capabilities and applications explain why AI technology is closely connected to national security in general and to Israel’s national security in particular. Main Points I 7 The understanding that this technology has crucial importance for economic strength, security resilience, and the empowerment of countries has lead to a real “arms race” between the major powers, namely the United States, China, and Russia. Most of the leading countries in the field have already built national programs around AI and have assigned resources and given executive attention in recognizing its importance. This could affect the international arena and future battlefields. Moreover, there is a concern that new phenomena that have emerged with AI, such as a “hyperwar,” could debilitate the stability of the international arena. Despite the many advantages and technological opportunities, AI poses various challenges to Israel: Security Challenges Organizational Technical and policy of use challenges challenges challenges This document presents a number of recommendations for Israel in the fields of: Human resources Budgeting, finance, and Research and Organization national infrastructure development International, diplomatic, Information sharing Morality, legislation, and intelligence aspects standardization, and safety procedures 8 I Artifiiia Ittaaiigence an NatiIia ticritt iI Israe This study makes the following key recommendations: Irita Ihican firmcaitt i IitiiIia Itritegy fir A iIn Ihican tItibaiIh i bint 01 thit wiaa manage it it tht IitiiIia atvta. Irita Ihican ireatt i mcati-year priirim fir A , Icih iI tht iIt whiih txiItI iI tht cybtr ftan, ti iIiatzt tht ftan broadly iIn iI-ntpth, ti lead i IitiiIia piaicy if rtIicrce allocatiiI, iIn ti mikt ntiiIiiII regarniIi researih iIn 02 ntvtaipmtIt, hcmiI rtIicrces, iIn ithtr mitttrI. Irita Ihican ireatt i IitiiIia IiactiiI fir iIfriItrcitcrt iIIctI (hirnwirt, iaicn, iIttrItt connectiiI), iIn Ihican allocatt iI ongoiIi budget, because tht Iticritt commcIitt, cIaikt tht iiviaiiI iIncItrt, hiI IttnI thit ni Iit cIciaat iaaiw fir 03 cIiIi commtriiia iIfriItrcitcrtI, nct ti iIIctI if iaiIIiftn iIfirmitiiI, fir tximpat, iIn ithtr Iticritt constriiItI. Irita Ihican immtniittat consintr iIttiritiIi A iIti Iticritt ttihnology iI whiih Irita Iiw hiI i rtaitivt inviItage (Icih iI tht cImiIItn itriia vthiiatI 04 ftan), iI irntr ti produce i piwtr mcatipaitr. Tht ntftIIt Ititir Ihican triiI IiI-ttihIiaiiical ptrIiIIta, iIiacniIi those it ItIiir atvtaI, ti bt fimiaiir with A , itI aimititiiII, iIn itI capibiaititI, Ii thit itI 05 ptrsonnel can bt mirt iIvolved and activt iI miking deciIions iI tht fiel if A . Main Points I 9 Tht viriicI Iticritt irganizitiiII Ihican consintr tht managemtIt if ptrIiIIta it tht ItIttm-wint atvta, iIiacniIi defiiIi commiI riatI, ItiInirnI, iIn triiIiIi, triIIftr if ptrIiIIta bttwttI irganizitiiII, iI innitiiI ti priviniIi 06 incentivtI iIn budgetI ti rtircit iIn rttiiI tiatIttn ptipat, iI irntr ti Iit lose thtm ti tht iiviaiiI iIncItrt. Irita Ihican defin tht ireas if researih thit rtqcirt fIiIiiIi iI i govtrImtItia- Iticritt budget, iivtI thit they irt IiiIificat ti IitiiIia Iticritt iIn wican 07 Iit bt consintrtn ithtrwiIt. Irita Ihican iIvtIt iI comprthtIIivt ItcnitI bt tht IitiiIia Iticritt tItibaiIhmtIt iIItead if rtatiIi Iiatat iI academii ItcnitI thit ttIn ti bt iIat iI i thtirttical atvta iIn irt iIintqcitt ir Iit ttIttn iI tht ireas rtqcirtn bt tht Iticritt 08 tItibaiIhmtIt. KIiwledge IhiriIi iI Irita’I Iticritt tItibaiIhmtIt iI irciiia; thtrtfirt, Irita Ihican tItibaiIh mtihiIiImI bttwttI tht viriicI Iticritt irganizitiiII ti iviin ncpaicatiIi wirk, ti faa tht gapI bttwttI tht irganizitiiII, iIn ti 09 coorniIitt IiactiiII. Irita Ihican consintr i combiIitiiI if mtihiIiImI ti encourage iIvtItmtItI iI tht ireas if A thit hivt i positivt tfftit iI IitiiIia Iticritt; iI piriaata, tht govtrImtIt Ihican iIirease itI txptInitcrt iI A iI iiviaiiI ireas ti invance 10 tht economt iI thiI ftan. 10 I Artifiiia Ittaaiigence an NatiIia ticritt iI Israe Irita Ihican iIirease iIvtItmtItI iI researih iIn ntvtaipmtIt iI tht hcmiI–miihiIt teamiIi ftan fir tht Iticritt tItibaiIhmtIt, with tht cIntrItiIniIi thit ntIpitt tht hiihat ictiIimicI Iitcrt if tht ItIttmI, Iimt tatmtItI if hcmiI contria wiaa ptrIiIt. I thiI conttxt, it iI recommtIntn ti priiritizt tht researih iIn ntvtaipmtIt if A iI ireas thit 11 Icppirt ptipat iIItead if those thit rtpaiiiIi thtm, cItia tht irtnibiaitt iIn Iifttt if tht ttihnology iI wtaa tItibaiIhtn, iIn tht inmiIiItritivt iIn legal iIptitI hivt bttI innrtIItn. Tht Htbrtw language processiIi ftan Ihican bt ntvtaiptn, iIiacniIi ippaicatiiII such as natcral language processing ( LP), Ipeech-ti-ttxt, ttxt-ti-Ipeech, 12 and more. Israel Ihould develop IirmI and principles fir ensuring safttt and responsibiaitt iI tht cIt if A withiI tht Iticritt tItibaiIhmtIt, with tht iIttItiiI thit iiviaiiI 13 binitI wiaa inipt thtm iI wtaa. Irita Ihican ireatt i code if tthiiI fir tht cIt if A iI tht Iticritt tItibaiIhmtIt 14 iI generia iIn iI tht conttxt if hcmiI–miihiIt teamI iI pirtiicair. Fir legal, miria, Iifttt, iIn redundancy pcrposes, Irita Ihican ntiint whiih 15 ItIttmI Ihican rttiiI mtihiIiImI if hcmiI IcptrviIiiI iIn contria. Main Points I 11 Irita Ihican miIitir it i IitiiIia atvta whit occurI iI tht ftanI if A iIn niti Iiiences it tht iIttrIitiiIia atvta, iIiacniIi iaa thit rtaittI ti 16 convtItiiII iIn ItiInirnI, ti miiItiiI Irita’I inviItage. Irita Ihican iit ti ItrtIithtI jiiIt researih iIn collabiritiiI with 17 ithtr countritI. Irita Ihican cooptritt with, iIn tvtI lead, i coalitiiI if IitiiII iI tht 18 ftan if A , iI