Report No. 103560-TD Republic of Chad Shaping Adaptive Safety Nets to Address Vulnerability Public Disclosure Authorized April 5, 2016 Social Protection & Labor Africa Region Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Document of the World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized CURRENCY EQUIVALENT Currency unit = CFA Franc (CFAF) Exchange rate as of June 2015 1,000 CFAF = € 1.52 and US$1.71 FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 Vice President: Makhtar Diop Country Director: Paul Noumba Um Acting Sr. Global Practice Director: Omar Arias Global Practice Manager: Stefano Paternostro Task Team Leader: Giuseppe Zampaglione TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS .................................................................................................................................... VII ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................................................... IX REPORT AT A GLANCE: KEY FINDINGS ................................................................................................................................. X REPORT AT A GLANCE: ANALYSIS TAKEAWAYS AND MAIN MESSAGES ..................................................................................... XII REPORT AT A GLANCE: SIX RECOMMENDATIONS................................................................................................................. XIII CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................... 1 2. COUNTRY CONTEXT .............................................................................................................................................. 2 3. VULNERABILITY IN CHAD (CHAPTER 2) ...................................................................................................................... 3 4. QUALITATIVE DYNAMICS OF POVERTY AND VULNERABILITY (CHAPTER 3) ........................................................................ 6 5. SAFETY NETS ASSESSMENT (CHAPTER 4) ................................................................................................................... 8 6. THE WAY FORWARD (CHAPTER 5) ......................................................................................................................... 10 CHAPTER 2 VULNERABILITY IN CHAD: A PRELIMINARY NOTE 13 1. INTRODUCTION AND BRIEF ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................................. 13 2. OVERVIEW OF POVERTY AND VULNERABILITY IN 2011............................................................................................... 16 3. CHANGES IN POVERTY AND VULNERABILITY BETWEEN 2003 AND 2011 ........................................................................ 18 4. COVARIATES OF VULNERABILITY AND POVERTY ......................................................................................................... 23 5. REGIONAL CORRELATES OF FOOD INSECURITY .......................................................................................................... 32 6. SOURCES OF VULNERABILITY ................................................................................................................................. 38 CHAPTER 3 SOCIAL DYNAMICS OF POVERTY AND VULNERABILITY: A QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS 47 1. INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT .............................................................................................................................. 47 2. POVERTY AND VULNERABILITY IN URBAN AREAS ....................................................................................................... 49 3. POVERTY AND VULNERABILITY IN A RURAL SAHELIAN AREA: BAHR EL GHAZAL (BEG) ...................................................... 55 4. POVERTY AND VULNERABILITY IN RURAL AREA IN THE SOUTH: LOGONE OCCIDENTAL ...................................................... 63 5. INFORMAL SOCIAL PROTECTION ............................................................................................................................ 75 6. LESSONS LEARNED FROM AID PROJECTS AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE STRUCTURES .............................................................. 83 CHAPTER 4 SAFETY NETS MAPPING 96 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................. 96 2. METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................................. 97 3. FOOD SECURITY SAFETY NETS ............................................................................................................................... 98 4. REVIEW OF SOCIAL SAFETY NETS ON NUTRITION .................................................................................................... 111 5. REVIEW OF SOCIAL SAFETY NETS IN EDUCATION SYSTEM ......................................................................................... 115 6. REVIEW OF SOCIAL SAFETY NETS IN THE HEALTH SYSTEM ......................................................................................... 119 7. REVIEW OF SOCIAL ASSISTANCE PROJECTS AND OTHERS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS PROMOTING SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR VULNERABLE GROUPS .................................................................................................................................................. 123 8. SUMMARY OF SOCIAL SAFETY NET BUDGETS AND BENEFICIARIES ............................................................................... 128 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS AND THE WAY FORWARD 141 1. KEY FINDINGS .................................................................................................................................................. 141 2. MAIN MESSAGES ............................................................................................................................................. 145 3. MOVING FORWARD AND FOLLOW‐UP RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................................... 149 iii ANNEXES 155 1. GLOSSARY ....................................................................................................................................................... 155 2. DATA SOURCES ................................................................................................................................................ 159 3. CALCULATIONS, OLS REGRESSIONS (CHAPTER 2) ................................................................................................... 161 4. REFERENCES .................................................................................................................................................... 164 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1 ‐ PERCENTAGE AND POPULATION BELOW POVERTY LINE, 2011 ............................................................................. 17 FIGURE 2 ‐ POVERTY DEPTH AND SEVERITY, 2011 ............................................................................................................ 17 FIGURE 3 ‐ 10TH ‐90TH PERCENTILE TOTAL PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION VS POVERTY AND FOOD POVERTY LINES, TOTAL AND RURAL‐ URBAN, 2011 ......................................................................................................................................................... 18 FIGURE 4 ‐ POPULATION BELOW POVERTY LINE, PERCENTAGE AND NUMBER, 2003 AND 2011 ................................................ 19 FIGURE 5 ‐ POVERTY DEPTH AND SEVERITY, 2003 ............................................................................................................ 20 FIGURE 6 ‐ 10‐ 90 PERCENTILE TOTAL PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION & DISTRIBUTION VS POVERTY LINE, 2003‐2011 .................... 20 FIGURE 7 ‐ 10TH ‐90TH PERCENTILE PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION AND DISTRIBUTION VS FOOD POVERTY LINE, RURAL, URBAN, 2003 AND 2011 .............................................................................................................................................................. 21 FIGURE 8 ‐ POPULATION BELOW FOOD POVERTY LINE, PERCENTAGE AND NUMBER, 2011 ...................................................... 22 FIGURE 9 ‐ POPULATION BELOW FOOD POVERTY LINE, PERCENTAGE, 2003 AND 2011........................................................... 22 FIGURE 10 ‐ VULNERABILITY AND POPULATION ACCORDING TO GENDER OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD, 2011 ......................................... 23 FIGURE 11 ‐ VULNERABILITY AND POPULATION ACCORDING TO AGE OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD, 2011 .............................................. 24 FIGURE 12 ‐ VULNERABILITY AND POPULATION ACCORDING TO SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD, 2011 ....................................................... 24 FIGURE 13 ‐ VULNERABILITY AND POPULATION ACCORDING TO EDUCATION OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD, 2011 .................................... 25 FIGURE 14 ‐ VULNERABILITY AND POPULATION ACCORDING TO HOUSEHOLD TYPE, 2011 .......................................................... 25 FIGURE 15 ‐ VULNERABILITY AND POPULATION IF SICK DURING LAST 30 DAYS, 2011 ............................................................... 26 FIGURE 16 ‐ VULNERABILITY AND POPULATION ACCORDING TO MINUTES TO FIND WATER, 2011 ............................................... 26 FIGURE 17 ‐ VULNERABILITY AND POPULATION ACCORDING TO KM TO NEAREST MARKET, 2011 ................................................ 27 FIGURE 18 ‐ VULNERABILITY AND POPULATION ACCORDING TO KM TO NEAREST HEALTH