University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln US Department of Energy Publications U.S. Department of Energy 7-2007 Global-Change Scenarios: Their Development and Use Edward Parson University of Michigan Virginia Burkett U.S. Geological Survey Karen Fisher-Vanden Dartmouth College David Keith University of Calgary Linda Mearns National Center for Atmospheric Research See next page for additional authors Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/usdoepub Part of the Bioresource and Agricultural Engineering Commons Parson, Edward; Burkett, Virginia; Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Keith, David; Mearns, Linda; Pitcher, Hugh; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; and Webster, Mort, "Global-Change Scenarios: Their Development and Use" (2007). US Department of Energy Publications. 7. https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/usdoepub/7 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the U.S. Department of Energy at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in US Department of Energy Publications by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. Authors Edward Parson, Virginia Burkett, Karen Fisher-Vanden, David Keith, Linda Mearns, Hugh Pitcher, Cynthia Rosenzweig, and Mort Webster This article is available at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/ usdoepub/7 Global-Change Scenarios Their Development and Use U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1b July 2007 FEDERAL EXECUTIVE TEAM Acting Director, Climate Change Science Program ......................................................William J. Brennan Acting Director, Climate Change Science Program Office ...........................................Peter A. Schultz Lead Agency Principal Representative to CCSP; Division Director, Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research .........................................................................................Jerry W. Elwood Product Lead; Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research ........................................................John C. Houghton Synthesis and Assessment Product Advisory Group Chair, Associate Director, EPA National Center for Environmental Assessment.....................................................................................................................Michael W. Slimak Synthesis and Assessment Product Coordinator, Climate Change Science Program Office ......................................................................Fabien J.G. Laurier OTHER AGENCY REPRESENTATIVES Department of Agriculture .............................................................................................Jan Lewandrowski Environmental Protection Agency .................................................................................Francisco de la Chesnaye National Aeronautics and Space Administration ...........................................................Phil DeCola National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ......................................................Hiram Levy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ......................................................Larry W. Horowitz This document does not express any regulatory policies of the United States or any of its agencies, or provide recommendations for regulatory action. Further information on the process for preparing Synthesis and Assessment products and the CCSP itself can be found at www.climatescience.gov. Global-Change Scenarios Their Development and Use Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1b Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research AUTHORS: Edward A. Parson, University of Michigan Virginia R. Burkett, U.S. Geological Survey Karen Fisher-Vanden, Dartmouth College David W. Keith, University of Calgary Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research Hugh M. Pitcher, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Cynthia E. Rosenzweig, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Mort D. Webster, Massachusetts Institute of Technology CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY COMMITTEE Eight members of the Climate Change Science Program Product Development Advisory Committee (CPDAC) wrote this Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product at the request of the Department of Energy. The entire CPDAC has accepted the contents of the product. Recommendations made in this report regarding pro- grammatic and organizational changes, and the adequacy of current budgets, reflect the judgment of the report’s authors and the CPDAC and are not necessarily the views of the U.S. Government. Chair Designated Federal Officer Robert M. White, The Washington Advisory Group Anjuli S. Bamzai, Department of Energy Office of Biological and Environmental Research Vice Chair Soroosh Sorooshian, University of California-Irvine Members David C. Bader Isaac M. Held William A. Pizer Lawrence Livermore National Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Resources for the Future Laboratory Laboratory John M. Reilly *Virginia R. Burkett Henry D. Jacoby Massachusetts Institute of U.S. Geological Survey Massachusetts Institute of Technology Technology Antonio J. Busalacchi Richard G. Richels University of Maryland *David W. Keith Electric Power Research Institute University of Calgary Leon E. Clarke *Cynthia E. Rosenzweig Pacific Northwest National Kenneth E. Kunkel National Aeronautics and Space Laboratory Illinois State Water Survey Administration Curtis C. Covey Richard S. Lindzen Robin T. Tokmakian Lawrence Livermore National Massachusetts Institute of Naval Postgraduate School Laboratory Technology *Mort D. Webster James A. Edmonds *Linda O. Mearns Massachusetts Institute of Pacific Northwest National National Center for Atmospheric Technology Laboratory Research Julie A. Winkler *Karen Fisher-Vanden Ronald L. Miller Michigan State University Dartmouth College National Aeronautics and Space Administration Gary W. Yohe Brian P. Flannery Wesleyan University Exxon-Mobil Corporation *Edward A. Parson University of Michigan Minghua H. Zhang William J. Gutowski Stony Brook University Iowa State University *Hugh M. Pitcher Pacific Northwest National David G. Hawkins Laboratory Natural Resources Defense Council *Authors for Global Change Scenarios: Their Development and Use July 2007 Members of Congress: On behalf of the National Science and Technology Council, the U.S. Climate Change Science Pro- gram (CCSP) is pleased to transmit to the President and the Congress this report, Scenarios of Green- house Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application. This is the second in a series of Synthesis and Assessment Products produced by the CCSP. This series of 21 reports is aimed at providing current evaluations of climate change science to inform public debate, policy, and operational decisions. These reports are also intended to help inform CCSP’s consideration of future program priorities. This second Synthesis and Assessment Product issued pursuant to Section 106 of the Global Change Research Act of 1990 and has two components: “Development of New Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations” (Part A) and a “Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application” (Part B). Here we transmit to you Part B. CCSP’s guiding vision is to provide the Nation and the global community with the science-based knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in the climate and related environmental systems. The Synthesis and Assessment Products are important steps toward that vision, helping translate CCSP’s extensive observational and research base into informational tools directly address- ing key questions that are being asked of the research community. This product will contribute to and enhance the ongoing and iterative international process of produc- ing and refining climate-related scenarios and scenario tools. It was developed with broad scientific input and in accordance with the Guidelines for Producing CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products, Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2001 (Public Law 106-554), and the Information Quality Act guidelines issued by the Department of Energy pur- suant to Section 515. The CCSP Interagency Committee relies on Department of Energy certifica- tions regarding compliance with Section 515 and the Guidelines for Producing CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products. We commend the report’s authors for both the thorough nature of their work and their adherence to an inclusive review process. Samuel W. Bodman Carlos M. Gutierrez John H. Marburger III, Ph.D. Secretary of Energy Secretary of Commerce Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy Chair, Committee on Vice-Chair, Committee on Executive Director, Committee on Climate Change Climate Change Climate Change Science and Technology Integration Science and Technology Integration Science and Technology Integration ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This report has been peer reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical ex- pertise. The expert review and selection of reviewers followed the OMB’s Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the Climate Change Science Program in making this published report as sound as