FOUNDATION PAPER | TWO LAND AND BIODIVERSITY Victoria: the science, our private land holders, incentives and connectivity Published by the Commissioner for Environmental Sustainability Melbourne, Victoria, 2013 ©The State of Victoria, Commissioner for Environmental Sustainability 2013 This publication is copyright. No part may be reproduced by any process except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. Printed by: Impact Digital Pty Ltd Units 3-4, 306 Albert Street Brunswick VIC 3056 Utilising solar power and recycled paper Authorised by the Victorian Commissioner for Environmental Sustainability, 16/570 Bourke Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000 ISBN 978-1-921147-21-0 For further information contact the office of the Commissioner for Environmental Sustainability, phone +61 3 8636 2197 or visit www.ces.vic.gov.au Disclaimer This report may be of assistance to you and every effort has been made to ensure that the information provided is correct. The Commissioner for Environmental Sustainability does not guarantee that the report is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication. CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 08 CHAPTER ONE - THE ‘PATTERN’ THAT CONNECTS – OUR SHARED RESPONSIBILITY 16 REDUCED RAINFALL 1.1BUSHFIRES AHEATWAVES varietyHIGHER AVERAGE of TEMPERATURES interventionsINTENSE STORMS HIGHER CO2 CONCENTRATIONS 16 SEA LEVEL RISE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE 1.2 Incentives Changes to 19 phenology altering Fewer numbers Loss of interactions between and less frequent alpine ecosystems species successful breeding of Decreased waterbirds and other 1.3 Biolinks and corridors: the ‘pattern that connects’opportunities for 21 riverine animals migration and changes to the phenology DROUGHT BUSHFIRES HEATWAVES HIGHER AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTENSE STORMS HIGHER CO2 CONCENTRATIONS of species SEA LEVEL RISE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE Decline in wetland Possible increase and riparian condition in crop and forestry Increased loss of yields when not limited forests and plantationsfrom reduced by other climate to more frequentinundation of wetlands change impacts Relocation of bushfires and floodplains Reduction in water agricultural industries resources available to more suitable areas Decreased for agriculture soil health limiting plant CHAPTER TWO - BIODIVERSITY IS BIncreasesA SIin pests andC , WE CAN’T LIVE WITHOUT growth and increasing Loss of ground cover disease reducing erosion increasing erosion Changes in the yields and raising and dust storms management costs distribution and abundance Degraded condition of species, with possible or loss of fire and ECOSYSTElocalM extinctions SERVICES drought sensitive Extended distribution 26 habitats and greater impacts of pest species Decreased soil health 2.1 Biodiversity – the rare and the mundane Loss of species 27 limiting plant growth sensitive to increased and productivity Reduction in crop yields Reduced pasture from hotter, drier water temperature and growth limiting climate and more reduced river flows grazing opportunities Declines in water severe storms Reduction in timber HOPETO UN-RAINBOW ROAD AD ROSEBERY EAST ROAD O GROGANS R ROAD quality from reduced production from E ROSEBERY-RAINBOW ROAD R ROSEBERY-RAINBOW ROAD 2.2 Fragmentation and physical and community linkages AD 30 MA O N Wimmera Cropland Management TransecR t E Y AY PIGICK BU -K S ROUTE ROAD R hotter, drier climate W A H flows, extreme D EET G N I U H AP O A Y B Y RAINB T Autumn 20OW1 RISE1S ROA D Survey N and more severe E weather and bushfires H BIRCHIP-RAINBO W ROAD D A O R AD storms O A Reduction in R Changes in freshwater G P AD W BI U O RCHIP-RAINBOW RO O AD H R B C N T W A AI BO livestock -W -R N R I flows and terrestrial AL U A K -R L I ABE A L W L N A O production from KE K O R AC R O MB I runoff will impact on A R D Less frequent frosts D A AD PULLUT WEST ROAD PULLUT EAST ROAD W 2.3 Ecosystem services O 31 GALAQUIL WEST ROAD hotter, drier R GALAQU IL EAST ROAD L L I H AD O inshore habitat such reducing the yield -N R W P climate and more O B YU N I N A R PA and quality of crops U severe storms as estuaries R APPLEDORES ROAD BRIM EAST ROAD ELLAM-WILLENABRINA ROAD AD O R A that require chilling G BRIM WEST ROAD BRIM EAST ROAD P U H N C H I Reduced freshwater L AT L D W -MU A for production - Changes O to the timing NE R THE R R RBY-B AKER KU R RO L AD L L A O I AYVI RQ F UON-NET RYATT ROAD H W inputs will impact on ERBY R OAD AD BEY L O D L R A E N O O R U of life cycle events ED Q R G O R LAH WEST ROAD ERL O EY N RO AD L JEPARIT EAST ROAD LAH EAST ROAD inshore habitats vital AD O B BL B O I CK 40 R " OAD LORQ R UON RO L AD E A AD H JEPARIT-W U O ARRACKNABEAL RO A such as breeding and AD D N A R L B G O G to many commercial BR L L R OUGHT EN E IP VA ON R I R Jeparit H OAD L O C E R E-L AD AN -BI O AD AL -K R D O N Q ABE A U R O N seasonal migrations AD O O K marine species T D N S WATCHEM-WARRACKNABEAL ROAD O R AC H A R G R R O G O N N AD N AR U H R O W A I BY BAN L O L GERANG ROAD N L BB T I -Y O ARR ER A BR NYUR K R A U W H EST R TARRANYURK EAST ROA N OAD D Q E A L ET A R U D C H O A -N A AD Inland lakes R BL N L O -L O O I G L R L PR I AD R OPO N E DO L H LAH I N R ROA S D N O O AD Y AD D T O G R A H AK-N AUBREY ROAD T ER D I O G R VER A R A U O AR AN A BORUNG HIGHWAY O O become drier and G O N T AD R -JEP W G N W L O ER BR S L " I - A R P H G G R N L C O N ER I I E AD T G D N E Warracknabeal R L AD E D A O E BAN H - R more saline EO D R S D AN A T G O WERP L P A -W O L O O R I AD AK R O OAD R YU H R N K K C PA A AD O EEP U R O R R O R D SH Increased loss of AD IAPU R -MI O AR O RA M ROA H Y R D T AD R -W O R U NHILL Y R P -D IAPU O IA R ROAD R N AD D N O BU R O A R " R R S AILSA ROAD I A property, crops U AT IAP C D KI AD D ROAD L SAL HILLS O O BOOLITE-SHEEP R Nhill W D N I A I L N AW O G I Salt water R and livestock to AM L ER EL L I Y R E A A O MT AST W A AD W H AD D - G O I L " O SHEEP HILLS-KELLALAC ROAD G H R R AD R YI G ER N H O T ST more frequent O U T A AD R R AW N KA intrusion of coastal U Rising ocean KEE W BO ESTE G BARRAT ROAD RN H O IGHW KA EL A SO AL Y S Kaniva T AD L A A U - O W T M-K AT H R A A KI bushfires MAK R C R H I OKE O R D R A SH T M N R D AD OAD AC A U R O freshwater KI R acidification will have O A O K TO CHAPTER - CHALLENGES S H 38 THREE N R ABEA -MU M LD A A ON R D L MI DIMBOOLA-M INYIP ROAD R O A wetlands severe consequences for D D A MINYIP-DIMBOOLA ROAD O R Dimboola " PE " Rising ocean O OLD MINYIP ROAD MINYIP-RICH AVON ROA H Minyip D marine species and EN D A-E V acidification will I HORSHAM-MINYI MI KAN P ROAD NY IP- ecosystems AD BAN O YE R N AD A Y RO O AD impact on many R MB O Wind Erosion Risk C R I O C ET IP- D Y N EO MI commercial species Very Low G " BANYENA ROAD BANYENA-PIMPINIO ROAD 3.1 Climate change BANYENA ROAD 40 Towns Low AD O R H T R Moderate O N Transect Route AD G O N Migration or loss of R JU High W O R Changes to the Roads AR marine species will -H L WIMME COOAC RA HIGHWAY Very high L K RO I AD H D HOBBS ROAD DOOEN SCHOOL ROAD N A O R distribution of marine affect the viability T Kilometres MI A Waterbody Bare Earth * TRE ROAD ME L Y ERS POLKEMM Reduction in livestock F R ET RO L D OAD AD O N S A G ER O AS 0 5 10 20 R E ± N R O of current fisheries G N SAW PIT SW species KE G AMP ROAD R S- A O productivity and E L GO AD LO ASHEN ROKE-N L NGERENONG S-JACKSON ROAD URCOU ROAD NG ROAD API * Bare Earth is the ConventioOnBRaEElS RFOAaDllow, Stubble Burnt and Stubble to be Burnt management types from the Autumn Survey 2011.