Argus Crude Crude market prices and analysis Issue 21-41 | Monday 1 March 2021 MARKET COMMENTARY PRICE SUMMARY Prices drop back Price summary $/bl Prices dropped back further in the week’s opening session. Basis Diff Bid Ask ± Towards 4.30pm in London the Argus May North Sea price North Sea was $65.07/bl, a drop of 27¢/bl from the same time in the Dated May +0.46 65.50 65.56 -0.31 Dated (new) May -0.95 64.09 64.15 -1.16 previous session. Brent Dated +0.85 66.35 66.41 -0.31 Forties Dated +0.90 66.40 66.46 -0.31 ESPO Blend loadings at 11-month high Oseberg Dated +1.10 66.60 66.66 -0.31 Seaborne exports of ESPO Blend crude from Russia’s Kozmino Ekofisk Dated +0.86 66.36 66.42 -0.30 Troll Dated +1.30 66.80 66.86 -0.31 port could rise to an 11-month high of 696,000 b/d in April, Russia-Caspian according to a preliminary loading programme. Urals NWE Dated -2.40 63.10 63.16 -0.51 Urals Med Aframax Dated -1.10 64.40 64.46 -0.31 Trafigura in deal to supply UK Lindsey refinery BTC Blend Dated +0.80 66.30 66.36 -0.31 UK-based Prax Group said it has agreed a crude and feed- CPC Blend Dated -2.75 62.75 62.81 -0.31 Russia-Caspian fob netbacks stocks supply deal with trading firm Trafigura for the 110,000 Urals fob Primorsk Dated -3.38 62.12 62.18 -0.48 b/d Lindsey refinery in northeast England. Urals fob Novo Aframax Dated -3.06 62.44 62.50 -0.20 CPC fob terminal Dated -3.67 61.83 61.89 -0.31 Congo loadings to slow in April BTC fob Ceyhan Dated -0.28 65.22 65.28 -0.23 Mediterranean Crude loadings from Congo (Brazzaville) will fall to 215,000 Saharan Blend Dated -0.05 65.45 65.51 -0.31 b/d in April from the 237,000 b/d planned in March, accord- Es Sider Dated -1.80 63.70 63.76 -0.31 ing to programmes. Kirkuk Dated -3.75 61.75 61.81 -0.31 West Africa Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk vs Dated $/bl Bonny Light Dated -0.35 65.15 65.21 -0.31 Girassol Dated +0.75 66.25 66.31 -0.31 Brent Forties Oseberg Hungo Dated -0.50 65.00 65.06 -0.31 Ekofisk Troll US pipeline 3 Basis Diff VWA ± LLS Apr WTI +2.35 62.99 -0.81 Mars Apr WTI -0.09 60.55 -0.49 2 Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI™) ASCI Apr WTI -0.09 60.55 -0.15 hh 1 Canada pipeline Basis Diff Bid Ask ± Synthetic CMA Nymex -0.10 59.99 60.29 -0.80 0 WCS CMA Nymex -11.25 48.74 49.24 -1.10 North Sea Dated = 0 Americas cargoes ANS CMA Nymex +3.18 63.37 63.47 -0.71 -1 Vasconia Jun WTI +1.31 61.02 61.52 -0.71 4 Sep 20 2 Nov 20 31 Dec 20 1 Mar 21 Asia-Pacific Minas ICP +1.00 63.34 63.44 -0.76 CONTENTS Tapis Dated +1.60 67.08 67.18 -0.31 North West Shelf Dated +1.80 67.28 67.38 -0.31 Russia Asia-Pacific Futures and forward markets 2 ESPO Blend Apr Dubai +1.35 64.83 64.93 -0.10 North Sea Dated 3 Sokol May Dubai +1.90 64.78 64.88 -0.70 Commentary and prices 4-22 Mideast Gulf Deals done 24 Dubai May 63.99 64.09 -0.05 Daily netbacks 26 Oman May Dubai +1.30 64.18 64.28 -0.01 Industry and infrastructure news 28 Murban May Adnoc +0.00 63.63 63.73 - Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group Available on the Argus Publications App Argus Crude Issue 21-41 | Monday 1 March 2021 FUTURes and foRwaRD maRKets Futures markets $/bl Forward markets $/bl Open High Low S'pore* London† Settle ± Bid Ask ± Ice Brent North Sea, Singapore close May 64.85 65.93 63.19 65.59 64.90 63.69 -0.73 Apr 66.38 66.47 -0.04 Jun 64.00 65.20 62.51 64.88 64.18 63.02 -0.71 May 65.70 65.77 +0.06 Jul 63.04 64.48 61.82 64.17 63.47 62.33 - *4:30pm Singapore minute marker, †4:30pm London minute marker Jun 64.98 65.07 -0.00 Nymex Light Sweet Jul 64.27 64.36 -0.06 Apr 61.95 62.92 59.96 62.61 61.76 60.64 -0.86 North Sea, London close May 61.42 62.67 59.77 62.35 61.52 60.42 -0.81 Dated 65.50 65.56 -0.31 Jun 61.15 62.17 59.34 61.85 61.05 59.96 -0.78 Apr 65.66 65.74 -0.33 Jul 60.56 61.54 58.79 61.20 60.50 59.38 -0.74 Dec 21 56.52 -0.68 May 65.04 65.10 -0.27 Dec 22 52.87 -0.44 Jun 64.33 64.41 -0.29 Dec 23 50.89 -0.32 Jul 63.62 63.70 -0.32 Dec 24 49.79 -0.30 Dubai, Singapore close Dec 25 49.22 -0.35 May 63.99 64.09 -0.05 DME Oman May 64.23 -0.01 Jun 63.48 63.58 -0.10 Jun 63.58 -0.33 Jul 62.88 62.98 -0.16 Jul 62.94 -0.31 Aug 62.16 62.26 - Aug 62.29 - Dubai, London close Volume bl 1,228,000 May 63.34 63.42 -0.28 Tocom Mideast Gulf (day session) Jun 62.82 62.92 -0.33 May 62.75 -0.10 Jun 61.99 -0.17 Jul 62.22 62.32 -0.39 Jul 61.52 -0.04 Aug 61.50 61.60 - Aug 60.97 - WTI Cushing, 1:30pm Houston Volume bl 1,379,673 Apr 60.62 60.66 -0.86 May 60.40 60.44 -0.81 INE crude futures Jun 59.94 59.98 -0.78 Timing Settle Yuan/bl ± Settle $/bl ± Jul 59.36 59.40 -0.74 Apr 4 07.20 -2.80 62.88 -0.48 May 413.20 2.40 63.81 +0.33 Intermonths $/bl Jun 416.30 0.90 64.29 +0.10 Jul 417.0 0 -1.40 64.40 -0.25 Mid Volume bl 108,925,500 North Sea Singapore close Apr/May +0.69 Ice Brent: First month vs second month $/bl May/Jun +0.71 Jun/Jul +0.71 2.0 Ice Brent second month = 0 North Sea London close 1.5 Apr/May +0.63 1.0 May/Jun +0.70 Jun/Jul +0.71 0.5 hh 0.0 Forward spreads 4:30pm London $/bl N Sea/Dubai WTI/N Sea WTI/Dubai -0.5 Apr -3.940 -1.0 May +1.690 -3.550 -1.860 -1.5 Jun +1.500 -3.320 -1.820 7 Sep 20 3 Nov 20 31 Dec 20 1 Mar 21 Jul +1.390 -3.160 -1.770 Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group Page 2 of 41 Argus Crude Issue 21-41 | Monday 1 March 2021 NORTH SEA DATED North Sea Dated calculation $/bl North Sea flat price Argus derives a flat price from trade of a month-ahead North Sea flat price forward contract for the delivery of Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Delivery Volume North Sea partial trade Price period bl Ekofisk or Troll, taking a weighted average of trade between volume weighted average May 300,000 65.07 4:29pm and 4:30pm in London. In the absence of trade, a (VWA) combination of the Ice Brent futures one-minute marker and CFD value against relevant basis month the exchange of futures for physical (EFP) market is used. Basis Midpoint 8 Mar-12 Mar May +0.05 Anticipated Dated 15 Mar-19 Mar May -0.09 We then look at contracts for difference (CFDs), with which 22 Mar-26 Mar May -0.18 the market anticipates North Sea Dated in the coming weeks 29 Mar-2 Apr May -0.35 at differentials to the forward month. Prices falling between 5 Apr-9 Apr May -0.50 10 days and a full calendar month ahead are averaged. 12 Apr-16 Apr May -0.64 Physical differentials CFD value for 11 Mar-1 Apr May -0.17 Argus assesses trade in physical cargoes of Brent, Forties, North Sea Anticipated Dated calculation Month Price Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll crude, assigning differentials to North VWA of North Sea partial trade May 65.07 Sea Dated to each grade for the 10-days to month-ahead range. CFD value for 11 Mar-1 Apr May -0.17 Dated components Anticipated Dated 64.90 The combination of the Anticipated Dated and the physical Physical differentials for 11 Mar-1 Apr values gives each grade’s component of North Sea Dated. Grade Basis Diff midpoint Quality premiums are deducted from Oseberg, Ekofisk and Brent Dated +0.85 Troll for benchmarking purposes. The lowest-priced of the Forties Dated +0.90 five components is used to set the price of North Sea Dated. Oseberg Dated +1.10 Ekofisk Dated +0.86 Troll Dated +1.30 Components of North Sea Dated $/bl North Sea quality premiums (QP) for 11 Mar-1 Apr 65.85 Oseberg +0.31 Ekofisk +0.23 65.80 Troll +0.47 65.75 North Sea Dated calculation Anticipated Add Diff Subtract 65.70 Price Dated midpoint QP 65.65 Brent component of Dated 64.90 +0.85 65.75 Forties component of Dated 64.90 +0.90 65.80 65.60 Oseberg component of Dated 64.90 +1.10 +0.31 65.69 65.55 Ekofisk component of Dated 64.90 +0.86 +0.23 65.53 Troll component of Dated 64.90 +1.30 +0.47 65.73 65.50 North Sea Dated is the Brent Forties Oseberg Ekofisk Troll 65.53 lowest component North Sea forward curve establishing Anticipated Dated $/bl Dated components-establishing North Sea Dated $/bl 66.00 66.10 66.00 65.50 65.90 65.80 65.00 Brent CFD week 65.70 Forties MAY Ose.