SYSTEMS-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF ON DEMAND MOBILITY FOR AVIATION Parker D. Vascik and R. John Hansman This report is based on the Master’s Thesis of Parker D. Vascik submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics and the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society on January 27, 2017 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degrees of: Master of Science in Aeronautics and Astronautics Master of Science in Technology and Policy Report No. ICAT-2017-02 February 2017 MIT International Center for Air Transportation (ICAT) Department of Aeronautics & Astronautics Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, MA 02139 USA [Page Intentionally Left Blank] 2 Systems-Level Analysis of On Demand Mobility for Aviation by Parker D. Vascik and Prof. R. John Hansman Abstract On Demand Mobility (ODM) is an emerging transportation concept that leverages pervasive telecommunication connectivity to enable the real-time matching of consumers with transportation service providers. Having experienced rapid adoption in ground transportation markets, numerous entities are now investigating opportunities to provide aircraft-based ODM within metropolitan areas. Previous research efforts have focused primarily on the technical capabilities of novel electric propulsion aircraft and sought to characterize the market potential for these vehicles. This thesis complements these initial efforts by adopting a broad view of anticipated aircraft-based ODM services to identify operational constraints and evaluate near and far-term mitigation opportunities. A systems-level analysis was used to capture interdisciplinary influence factors such as limitations placed on ODM networks as a result of air traffic control, ground infrastructure integration, network load balancing, unmanned aircraft interaction and community noise, among others. The holistic considerations of this analysis extend beyond the traditional conceptual design disciplines of engineering and business to include evaluative perspective from the legal, policy, urban planning and sustainability domains. The first order, systems-level analysis approach for early-phase conceptual design developed in this thesis was applied to a case study in Los Angeles. Promising markets were identified based upon current commuting and wealth patterns. A notional concept of operations was then applied to twelve reference missions within these markets. Scrutiny of these missions revealed a variety of operational challenges from which five preeminent constraints were derived. These constraints may limit or prohibit ODM aircraft operations and include ground infrastructure availability, aircraft noise emissions and air traffic control scalability. Furthermore, significant legal and policy challenges were identified related to low altitude flight, environmental impacts and community acceptance. Findings from this thesis may support the ODM community to develop a system architecting plan that directs technology investments, stakeholder negotiations and network implementation so as to overcome the identified constraints and avoid or internalize negative externalities. 3 Acknowledgements This material is based upon work supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant number NNX14AT14H issued through the NASA Education Aeronautics Scholarship Program, as well as contract NNL16AA58T. Opinions, interpretations, conclusions and recommendations are those of the authors and not necessarily endorsed by the United States Government. 4 Table of Contents ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................... 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................................... 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................. 5 LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................................... 9 LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................... 12 1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................... 15 1.1 MOTIVATION .................................................................................................................. 15 1.2 METHODOLOGICAL GAP ................................................................................................ 16 1.3 SCOPE ............................................................................................................................ 18 1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS .................................................................................................. 18 1.5 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................. 19 1.6 THESIS OVERVIEW AND ORGANIZATION ........................................................................ 21 2 BACKGROUND AND LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................... 23 2.1 HISTORICAL UNDERPINNINGS OF ON DEMAND MOBILITY FOR AVIATION ..................... 23 2.1.1 The Early Years of Air Transportation ..................................................................... 23 2.1.2 Urban Air Transportation of the 1960’s and 70’s .................................................... 24 2.1.3 Helicopter Charter Flight Networks ......................................................................... 27 2.1.4 Inter-City and Commuter Airline Regional Flight Networks ................................... 28 2.1.5 Personal Air Transportation ..................................................................................... 30 2.1.6 Concept Revitalization as ODM Aviation ................................................................. 31 2.2 ON DEMAND MOBILITY AND AVIATION......................................................................... 32 2.2.1 Ground-Based On Demand Mobility ........................................................................ 33 2.2.2 Air-Based On Demand Mobility ............................................................................... 35 2.2.3 A Preponderance of Terms ....................................................................................... 38 2.2.3.1 Terminology for Aircraft-Based Transportation in Metropolitan Areas .......... 38 2.2.3.2 A Hierarchy of Transportation Modes .............................................................. 39 2.3 ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES FOR ODM AVIATION .......................................................... 40 2.3.1 Electric Aircraft Performance Overview .................................................................. 41 2.3.1.1 First Order Aircraft Performance Model .......................................................... 42 2.3.1.2 Comparison of Electric and Conventional Aircraft Performance ..................... 42 2.3.1.3 Comparative CO2 Lifecycle Assessment of Full-Electric ODM Aircraft ........ 48 2.3.1.4 Discussion of Electric and Conventional Aircraft Operating Economics ........ 52 2.3.2 Telecommunications for ODM Aviation Overview ................................................... 55 2.3.3 Autonomy in Aviation Overview ............................................................................... 56 2.4 MARKET OPPORTUNITY AND CURRENT STATUS OF ODM AVIATION ............................ 57 2.5 SYSTEMS APPROACHES TO INITIAL REQUIREMENTS DEFINITION ................................... 61 2.6 CONSIDERATION OF EXTERNALITIES DURING CONCEPTUAL DESIGN ............................. 64 2.6.1 Externalities Related to Social Equity ...................................................................... 65 2.6.2 Externalities Related to Environmental Justice ........................................................ 66 5 3 ODM AVIATION MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND CASE STUDY DEFINITION 71 3.1 PROMISING MISSION AND BUSINESS CONCEPTS FOR ODM AVIATION ........................... 72 3.2 L.A. CASE STUDY SYSTEM BOUNDARY IDENTIFICATION .............................................. 74 3.3 L.A. CONSUMER DEMAND ESTIMATION AND GEOGRAPHIC LOCATING ......................... 79 3.3.1 Consumer Demand for Helicopter Charter Flights .................................................. 82 3.3.2 Consumer Demand for ODM Aviation to Replace Long Commutes ........................ 86 3.3.3 Consumer Demand for ODM Aviation from Wealthy Commuters ........................... 89 3.4 POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENTS TO CITY STRUCTURE ENABLED BY ODM AVIATION ........ 91 3.4.1 Increase Mobility to Communities Underserved by Surface Transportation ........... 95 3.4.2 Foster Regional Urbanization .................................................................................. 96 3.4.3 Co-Location of Ground Infrastructure with Consumers’ Communities ................... 97 3.5 OPPORTUNITIES TO INCREASE TRANSPORTATION RESILIENCY AND AFFORDABILITY .... 97 3.6 ODM AVIATION INFLUENCE ON CAREERS IN TRANSPORTATION SERVICES ................... 98 3.7 OPPORTUNITIES TO REDUCE THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF TRANSPORTATION ....... 99 4 LOS ANGELES CASE STUDY REFERENCE MISSION DEFINITION ................. 105 4.1 REFERENCE MISSION DEFINITION APPROACH .............................................................. 106 4.2 DAILY COMMUTE REFERENCE MISSIONS ..................................................................... 108 4.2.1 Malibu to Century City Reference
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