Economic Impacts Technical Report Multnomah County | Earthquake Ready Burnside Bridge Project Portland, OR January 29, 2021 Earthquake Ready Burnside Bridge Economic Impacts Technical Report Prepared for Multnomah County Transportation Division – Bridges 1403 SE Water Avenue Portland, OR 97214 Prepared by HDR 1050 SW 6th Avenue, Suite 1800 Portland, OR 97204 T (503) 423-3700 Contract# DCS-SVCSGEN-857-2019-conv HDR Project #10144814 CERTIFICATION The technical material and data contained in this document were prepared under the supervision and direction of the undersigned, as a professional economist. Signature Reserved for Final Version Prepared by Ewa Tomaszewska (Economist) Signature Reserved for Final Version Checked by Chris Williges (Economist) Signature Reserved for Final Version Approved by Heather Catron (Consultant Project Manager) Economic Impacts Technical Report Multnomah County | Earthquake Ready Burnside Bridge Project Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................1 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................1 1.1 Project Location.........................................................................................................1 1.2 Project Purpose .........................................................................................................1 2 Project Alternatives.............................................................................................................3 3 Definitions .........................................................................................................................3 4 Legal Regulations and Standards .........................................................................................4 4.1 Laws, Plans, Policies, and Regulations .........................................................................4 4.2 Design Standards ......................................................................................................4 5 Affected Environment..........................................................................................................4 5.1 Area of Potential Impact ..............................................................................................4 5.2 Resource Identification and Evaluation Methods .............................................................7 5.2.1 Published Sources and Databases ....................................................................7 5.2.2 Field Visits and Surveys...................................................................................7 5.3 Existing Conditions.....................................................................................................7 5.3.1 Existing Conditions Analysis and Assessment .....................................................7 5.3.2 Population Characteristics................................................................................8 5.3.3 Households and Housing Trends .................................................................... 11 5.3.4 Employment and Unemployment..................................................................... 14 5.3.5 Household Income, Poverty, and Homelessness ............................................... 18 5.3.6 Business Activity .......................................................................................... 21 5.3.7 Population and Employment Forecasts ............................................................ 25 5.3.8 Road Network .............................................................................................. 25 6 Impact Assessment Methodology and Data Sources.............................................................. 26 6.1 Long-Term Impact Assessment Methods ..................................................................... 26 6.1.1 Traffic and Travel Patterns ............................................................................. 26 6.1.2 Impacts on Traffic Safety ............................................................................... 26 6.1.3 Impacts on Businesses, Community Facilities, and Community Services............... 27 6.1.4 Impacts on Land Use/Developable Parcels ....................................................... 27 6.1.5 Noise Impacts in Project Vicinity ..................................................................... 27 6.1.6 Bridge Seismic Resiliency in Case of an Earthquake .......................................... 28 6.2 Short-Term Impact Assessment Methods .................................................................... 28 6.2.1 Disruptions, Detours and Delays to Traffic Using the Burnside Bridge ................... 28 6.2.2 Disruptions and Delays to Other Transportation in the API .................................. 29 6.2.3 Right-of-Way, Impeded Access, and Displacement Impacts ................................ 29 6.2.4 Increased Noise ........................................................................................... 29 6.2.5 Business and Employment Opportunities Impacts.............................................. 29 6.3 Indirect Impact Assessment Methods .......................................................................... 30 6.4 Cumulative Impact Assessment Methods..................................................................... 30 7 Environmental Consequences ............................................................................................ 31 7.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 31 7.2 Pre-Earthquake Impacts ........................................................................................... 31 7.2.1 No-Build ...................................................................................................... 31 7.2.2 Enhanced Retrofit ......................................................................................... 32 January 29, 2021 | i Economic Impacts Technical Report Multnomah County | Earthquake Ready Burnside Bridge Project 7.2.3 Replacement, Short-span .............................................................................. 36 7.2.4 Replacement, Long-span ............................................................................... 37 7.2.5 Replacement with Couch Extension................................................................. 37 7.3 Post-Earthquake Impacts .......................................................................................... 39 7.3.1 No-Build ...................................................................................................... 39 7.3.2 Enhanced Retrofit ......................................................................................... 40 7.3.3 Replacement, Short-span .............................................................................. 40 7.3.4 Replacement, Long-span ............................................................................... 41 7.3.5 Replacement with Couch Extension................................................................. 41 7.4 Construction Impacts ................................................................................................ 41 7.4.1 Without Temporary Bridge ............................................................................. 41 7.4.2 With Temporary Bridge.................................................................................. 50 7.4.3 Potential Off-site Staging Areas ...................................................................... 57 7.5 Cumulative Effects ................................................................................................... 58 7.5.1 No-Build Alternative ...................................................................................... 58 7.5.2 Build Alternatives.......................................................................................... 58 7.6 Compliance with Laws, Regulations, and Standards...................................................... 59 7.7 Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 59 8 Mitigation Measures.......................................................................................................... 61 8.1 Enhanced Retrofit .................................................................................................... 61 8.2 Replacement, Short-span.......................................................................................... 62 8.3 Replacement, Long-span .......................................................................................... 62 8.4 Replacement with Couch Extension ............................................................................ 62 8.5 Temporary Bridge Option .......................................................................................... 62 9 Contacts and Coordination................................................................................................. 62 10 Preparers ........................................................................................................................ 62 11 References...................................................................................................................... 63 Tables Table 1. Study Area 2017 Population .............................................................................................8 Table 2. Population Trends...........................................................................................................9