Tropical Cyclone Ula - Estimated Impacts Warning 22, 09JAN16 2100 UTC PDC - 06P - 22A [JTWC] Summary: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CORE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WHICH SUPPORTS THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 115 KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC ULA IS ENCOUNTERING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 27 CELSIUS, AND GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 20NM EYE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. NEAR TAU 24, TC 06P WILL REACH THE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN POLEWARD. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLING SSTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ERODE THE CORE STRUCTURE AND THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. Estimated Tropical Cyclone Wind Impacts Tropical Cyclone Positions Ï Hurricane/Typhoon >150 mph Vanuatu Ï ¯ Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph Ï Tropical Storm: 39-73 mph Ï Ï Tropical Depression: <39 mph Ï )"Ï Current Storm Position 22SEP13 - 1800UTC Est. Wind Impacts (TAOS) 22SEP13 - 0600UTC 21SEP13 - 91J8A00NU T1C800UTC )"Ï Small Trees Sway Large Trees Sway 21SEP13 - 1800UTC Branches Breaking 21SEP13 - 0600UTC Trees Down; some power loss 10JAN 0600UTC Ï Minor Damage; power out Moderate Damage 5% of value Widespread Damage Severe Damage Catastrophic Damage New Caledonia 10JAN 1800UTC Ï 0 50 100 Miles 0 50 100 Kilometers The delineation of political boundaries, and associated data shown here do not imply endorsement by the Pacific Disaster Center. Produced By: PDC Disaster Services Team Product Created: 1/9/2016 11JAN 0600UTC Ï Data: NOAA, TAOS Estimated Wind Impacts and Estimated Tropical Cyclone Rainfall forecasted by Kinetic Analysis Corporation. ORNL (Landscan), Population Density. Other Data: ESRI Projection: Mercator Datum WGS84 Service Layer Credits: Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, i-cubed, USDA, USGS, AEX, Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN, IGP, swisstopo, and the GIS User Community http://www.pdc.org - [email protected] Wind Radii Estimated Tropical Cyclone Rainfall (TAOS) Ï Ï Ï Ï Ï Vanuatu )"Ï Ï Ï Fiji Ï Vanuatu Ï Ï Ï Ï ÏÏ New Caledonia Ï )"Ï Ï Ï Ï Ï < 1 in New Caledonia Ï ÏÏ Ï 1-3 in 3-6 in Wind Radii 6-9 in Ï Winds >/=64 Knots 9-12 in Winds >/=50 Knots 12-24 in Winds >/=34 Knots > 24 in Ï Ï.