Sayat Orazalyuly: Oralmans’ Matters: A Complex View on Ethnic Kazakhs Repatriation CONTENTS List of tables …………………………………………………………………………... 7 List of figures ……………………………………………………………………………….... 8 List of maps …………………………………………………………………………………..... 9 List of photos ………………………………………………………………………………….. 9 1. Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………. 10 1.1 Problem definition ………………………………………………………………..... 10 1.2 Research objectives and background of the study ………………………………..... 13 1.3 Research questions ……………………………………………………………….... 13 1.4 Initial hypotheses ………………………………………………………………..…. 14 1.5 Relevance of the research ………………………………………………………….. 14 1.6 Basic structure of the study …………….………………………………………….. 16 2. Overview of literature …………………………………………………………….….. 18 3. Theoretical and empirical framework …………………………………………..…. 21 3.1 Basic concepts …………………………………………………………….……...... 21 3.2 Relevant theories and facts ……………………………………………………........ 26 3.2.1 Theories of International Migration ………………………………………... 26 3.2.2 Kazakhstani model of the ethnic return migration policy ………………...... 27 4. Data on Oralmans availability and quality ……………………………………….. 31 5. Methodology ………………………………………………………………………........ 35 5.1 Basic approaches adopted ………………………………………………….……… 35 5.2 Basic methods used ………………………………………………………..……..... 36 5.2.1 SWOT analysis ………………………………………………………………. 36 5.2.2 Case study writing ………………………………………………………..….. 37 5.2.3 Demographic instruments ……………………………………………….….... 38 6. Kazakh diaspora ……………………………………………………………………..... 42 6.1 Where? Why? How many? ......................................................................................... 42 6.2 Social, economic, cultural and political positions ………………………………….. 46 6.3 Changing population size ………………………………………………………....... 48 6.3.1 China…………………………………………………………………………..... 48 6.3.2 Uzbekistan ……………………………………………………………..……... 49 6.3.3 Russia ……………………………………………………………………......... 50 6.3.4 Mongolia ……………… ………………………………………………….….. 51 7. Repatriation of Kazakhs living abroad ……………………………………….….... 54 7.1 Historical roots of the process ……………………….…………………………....... 54 5 Sayat Orazalyuly: Oralmans’ Matters: A Complex View on Ethnic Kazakhs Repatriation 7.2 Moving forces of repatriation ………………………………………….….……...... 56 7.3 Legal frameworks …………………………………………………………...…....... 58 7.4 Current repatriation policy ……………….………………………………….…...... 60 7.5 Prospects of repatriation process ………………………………………………...… 62 8. Oralmans …………………………………………………………………………….…. 67 8.1 Socio-demographic characteristics ………………………………………………... 67 8.2 Spatial distribution and territorial stability …………………………………… ….. 74 8.3 Demographic reproduction (by the example of Mongolian Kazakhs) ……….…... 77 8.4 Model scenarios of Oralmans’ future population developments …………….......... 80 8.5 Level of integration ……………………………………. …………………… …... 84 8.6 Oralmans related issues …………………………………………………………… 86 8.6.1 Housing and resettlement ………………………………...…………………. 86 8.6.2 Employment ………………………………………………………………… 89 8.6.3 Integration …………………………………………….………………..…… 93 8.7 International experience …………………………………………………………... 94 8.8 Potential solutions of repatriation issues ……………………………………….…. 95 8.9 Current and prospective positions of Oralmans in Kazakhstani society .……...….. 96 8.9.1 SWOT ……………………………………………………...…...…………… 98 9. Conclusion and recommendations …………………………………………….….. 100 References ………………………………………………… ……………….…….......... 104 Appendices …………………… ………………… ……………….….………..……... 111 6 Sayat Orazalyuly: Oralmans’ Matters: A Complex View on Ethnic Kazakhs Repatriation LIST OF TABLES Tab. 1 Involvement of all parties in the process of integration ………………………………. 24 Tab. 2 Indicators of integration ………………………………………………………………. 24 Tab.3 Oralmans total numbers by local departments on migration and UNDP Kazakhstan, 2009, selected districts of the East Kazakhstan region …………………………………….... 33 Tab. 4 Estimated Number of Kazakh Diaspora in Host States (for 2001-2003) ……………... 45 Tab. 5 Major ethnic groups in Uzbekistan (%) ….………………………………………….... 50 Tab. 6 Etnic groups in Russia ……...………………………………………………………..... 51 Tab. 7 Ethnic groups of Mongolia .………………………………………………………….... 53 Tab. 8 Ethnic composition of Kazakhstan’s population (%), 1979-2009…………………….... 56 Tab. 9 Motivation to return to Kazakhstan, Oralmans from Mongolia (positioning towards the statement: “The main reason I migrated to Kazakhstan was the promise of maternal benefits from the Kazakhstan government”) …………...………………………….…... 63 Tab.10 Net migration of external migration in 1992-2005 (in thousand ……………..…….…. 64 Tab.11 Dynamics of Kazakh ethnic group by region, 1999-2005… ………………………….... 83 Tab.12 Attitudes of the Kazakhstani population towards Oralmans ……………..………….... 84 Tab.13 What is your attitude towards Oralmans? (%) …………………………...………….… 87 Tab.14 Local population attitude by region, (%) ........................................................................ 88 7 Sayat Orazalyuly: Oralmans’ Matters: A Complex View on Ethnic Kazakhs Repatriation LIST OF FIGURES Fig. 1 International migration, Kazakhstan, 1991-2008 ………………………………….…. 57 Fig. 2 The number of Oralman’s families, 1993-2009 …………………………...………… 65 Fig. 3 Dynamics of population change in Kazakhstan, 1992-2008 ……………………….... 67 Fig. 4 Oralman returns by families, 1992-2009 …………………………………………….. 68 Fig. 5 Number of Oralmans, 1992-2009 ……………………………………………………. 68 Fig. 6 Main countries of origin of Oralmans, 1991-2009 ………..…………………………. 69 Fig. 7 Age structure of Oralmans, 1991-2009 ……………………………………………… 71 Fig. 8 Educational level of Oralmans, 1991-2009 …….……………………………………. 72 Fig. 9 Occupied Oralmans by profession level ……..……………………………………… 74 Fig. 10 Settlement of Oralman’s by oblast, 1991- 2009 ………………………………….... 76 Fig. 11 Birth rate of ethnic Kazakhs in Bayan-Olgii aimag, 1990-2007 ……………………. 78 Fig. 12 Fertility rate in Bayan-Olgii aimag and Karaganda region, 2006-2008 …..………… 79 Fig. 13 What is your attitude towards Oralmans? (%) ………………………………………. 85 Fig. 14 Percentage of Oralmans without housing by region, 1991-2010 …..……………….. 87 Fig. 15 Unemployment of Oralmans, 1991-2009 ………………………………….………… 90 Fig. 16 Development index of GDP and consumer price index, 1991-2007 ……………....… 97 8 Sayat Orazalyuly: Oralmans’ Matters: A Complex View on Ethnic Kazakhs Repatriation List of Maps Map 1 Kazakhstan’s population density …………………………………………………….. 27 Map 2 Spatial distribution of major ethnic groups, Kazakhstan, 1990 ………… ………….. 28 Map 3 Kazakh diaspora ……………………………………………………………………… 44 List of Photos Photo 1 President of the RK Nursultan Nazarbayev, 1992 ……………………………….. 29 Photo 2 Oralmans from Turkey …………………………………………………………… 46 Photo 3 Micro region “Asar”, Shymkent city …………………………………………….. 62 Photo 4 Low level Russian language of Oralmans ………………………………………... 73 Photo 5 Oralmans returning to “historical Homeland” …………………………………… 75 9 Sayat Orazalyuly: Oralmans’ Matters: A Complex View on Ethnic Kazakhs Repatriation 1. Introduction Kazakhstan is the ninth largest country by its territory in the in the world. On 2.72 million square kilometres of territory is, however, living only about 16 million inhabitants, i.e. less than 6 persons on a sq. kilometre. In the context of this fact and the developmental opportunities represented especially by its geographical location and rich natural resources, the country faces a particular shortage of human recourses. It was recognized in the very initial stage of the independent Kazakhstan existence. Taking also into account that the titular nation was in minority at that time the political power decided to mobilize the ethnic Kazakhs living abroad and start the process of their repatriation. 1.1 Problem definition Repatriation, the process of expatriates’ return and adjustment to their home countries (Kamoche, 1997; Lazarova and Caligiuri 2001), has been the subject of many studies of the last decades. Research has clearly indicated that the repatriation process is important for a receiving society: bad repatriation leads to dissatisfaction and the risk of former repatriates quitting (Jassawalla and Sashittal, 2009; Kamoche, 1997, Mäkelä and Suutari, 2009). Traditionally, international migration has been explained using economic and demographic theories. The causes of migration streams between countries have been interpreted to be the result of the differences in wages and living standards or in the population age structure (Zelinsky, 1971; Massey et al. 1993). Recently, however, there has been increasing interest in the impact of different institutions on the formation of migration streams, including (nation) states. At that, the importance of policy has been emphasized as a factor in both selecting out immigrants and inducing migration streams (Leitner, 1995; Seifert, 1997; Tesfahuney, 1998). A phenomenon in which political factors have played a greater role than usual is the ethnic (return) migration in contemporary Europe. Here the post-WW II pioneers have been Germany and Israel. During the whole post-war period, these countries promoted the migration of ethnic Germans and Jews, respectively, from other countries (Groenendijk, 1997). The disintegration of the Soviet Union and the following political and economic changes in Central and East Europe yet brought a remarkable increase in the volume of ethnic migration since the late 1980s. In addition to Germany and Israel, Greece and Finland began to favour ethnic migration (Voutira, 1991; Kyntäjä, 1997). Also, the Central and East European transition countries, which previously had been points of departure