Edinburgh Research Explorer Quantifying the Mass Balance of Ice Caps on Severnaya Zemlya, Russian High Arctic. I: Climate and Mass Balance of the Vavilov Ice Cap Citation for published version: Bassford, RP, Siegert, MJ, Dowdeswell, JA, Oerlemans, J, Glazovsky, AF & Macheret, YY 2006, 'Quantifying the Mass Balance of Ice Caps on Severnaya Zemlya, Russian High Arctic. I: Climate and Mass Balance of the Vavilov Ice Cap', Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2006)038[0001:QTMBOI]2.0.CO;2 Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1657/1523-0430(2006)038[0001:QTMBOI]2.0.CO;2 Link: Link to publication record in Edinburgh Research Explorer Document Version: Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Published In: Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research Publisher Rights Statement: Published in Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research by the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), University of Colorado (2006) General rights Copyright for the publications made accessible via the Edinburgh Research Explorer is retained by the author(s) and / or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing these publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Take down policy The University of Edinburgh has made every reasonable effort to ensure that Edinburgh Research Explorer content complies with UK legislation. If you believe that the public display of this file breaches copyright please contact [email protected] providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Download date: 29. Sep. 2021 Quantifying the Mass Balance of Ice Caps on Severnaya Zemlya, Russian High Arctic. I: Climate and Mass Balance of the Vavilov Ice Cap Author(s): R. P. Bassford, M. J. Siegert, J. A. Dowdeswell, J. Oerlemans, A. F. Glazovsky, and Y. Y. Macheret Source: Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 38(1):1-12. 2006. Published By: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), University of Colorado DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2006)038[0001:QTMBOI]2.0.CO;2 URL: http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.1657/1523-0430%282006%29038%5B0001%3AQTMBOI %5D2.0.CO%3B2 BioOne (www.bioone.org) is a nonprofit, online aggregation of core research in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences. BioOne provides a sustainable online platform for over 170 journals and books published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses. Your use of this PDF, the BioOne Web site, and all posted and associated content indicates your acceptance of BioOne’s Terms of Use, available at www.bioone.org/page/terms_of_use. Usage of BioOne content is strictly limited to personal, educational, and non-commercial use. Commercial inquiries or rights and permissions requests should be directed to the individual publisher as copyright holder. BioOne sees sustainable scholarly publishing as an inherently collaborative enterprise connecting authors, nonprofit publishers, academic institutions, research libraries, and research funders in the common goal of maximizing access to critical research. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol. 38, No. 1, 2006, pp. 1–12 Quantifying the Mass Balance of Ice Caps on Severnaya Zemlya, Russian High Arctic. I: Climate and Mass Balance of the Vavilov Ice Cap R. P. Bassford* Abstract M. J. Siegert*# Due to their remote location within the Russian High Arctic, little is known about the mass J. A. Dowdeswell balance of ice caps on Severnaya Zemlya now and in the past. Such information is critical, however, to building a global picture of the cryospheric response to climate change. This J. Oerlemansà paper provides a numerical analysis of the climate and mass balance of the Vavilov Ice A. F. Glazovsky§ and Cap on October Revolution Island. Mass balance model results are compared with Y. Y. Macheret§ available glaciological and climatological data. A reference climate was constructed at the location of Vavilov Station, representing average conditions for the periods 1974–1981 *Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of and 1985–1988. The site of the station has a mean annual temperature of À16.58C, and an Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, U.K. annual precipitation of 423 mm water equivalent. The mass balance model was calibrated Scott Polar Research Institute, to the measured mass balance, and tested against the time-dependent evolution of the University of Cambridge, Lensfield Road, englacial temperatures (to a depth of 15 m). The mass balance model was then converted to Cambridge CB2 1ER, U.K. a distributed model for the entire Vavilov Ice Cap. Model results predict the spatial à Institute for Marine and Atmospheric distribution of mass balance components over the ice cap. Processes involving refreezing Research Utrecht (IMAU), P.O. Box 80005, NL-3508 TA, Utrecht, of water are found to be critical to the ice cap’s state of health. Superimposed ice makes up The Netherlands. 40% of the total net accumulation, with the remaining 60% coming from firn that has been §Institute of Geography, Russian Academy heavily densified by refreezing. of Sciences, Staromonetny 29, Moscow, Russia. #To whom correspondence should be addressed. [email protected] Introduction not unusual. A continuous time series of temperature since 1933 and more fragmentary measurements of precipitation have been recorded at Observations indicate a general retreat of the Earth’s glaciers and Fedorova Meteorological Station, located on the northern tip of the ice caps over the last century attributed to a concurrent warming of the Taymyr Peninsular (778439N, 1048179E). The mean annual tempera- global climate. In order to quantify the current rate of glacier change ture at Fedorova is about À158C, with a July average temperature of and associated sea-level rise, and to forecast future changes, numerical 1.58C (Dowdeswell et al., 1997). Mean annual precipitation measured models are required. Models have shown that the Earth’s largest ice at the meteorological station is about 0.20–0.25 m, compared with sheets react relatively slowly to climate change, making their study less a mean value of 0.4 m water equivalent (w.e.) measured in the ablation appropriate to gauge the link between ice masses and climate than zone of the Vavilov Ice Cap for the period 1980–1989 (Bol’shiyanov smaller glaciers and ice caps such as those which exist in the Russian and Makeev, 1995). Mean annual temperatures recorded at Fedorova Arctic. The aim of this paper is to quantify the components of mass show great interannual variability, although the period from 1940 to balance on the Vavilov Ice Cap in Severnaya Zemlya. Such work is the mid 1950s was markedly warmer than the following three decades a necessary first step toward predicting the response of ice masses in (Dowdeswell et al., 1997). this poorly understood region to future climate change. The only published mass balance data for ice masses on Severnaya Zemlya are from the Vavilov Ice Cap. Snow survey studies provide balance data for 10 years during the periods 1975–1981 and 1986–1988 THE ICE CAPS AND CLIMATE OF SEVERNAYA ZEMLYA (Barkov et al., 1992). Measurements indicate a high annual variability Severnaya Zemlya is the most easterly glacierized archipelago in ranging fromÀ0.63 to 0.46 m w.e., with a mean and cumulative balance the Russian High Arctic, consisting of four main islands with a total of À0.03 m aÀ1 and À0.29 m, respectively. Long-term observations also area of 36,800 km2, about half of which is presently ice-covered indicate that the southern margins of the Vavilov Ice Cap have (Dowdeswell et al., in press) (Fig. 1). The archipelago is located advanced 150 to 450 m between 1952 and 1985 (Barkov et al., 1992). between latitudes of 738 to 828N and longitudes 908 to 1108E, and lies Koryakin (1986) compared maps and aerial photographs of the approximately 60 km north of the tip of the Taymyr Peninsula on Russian Arctic compiled in 1936–1938 and 1952 with satellite images the Russian mainland. taken in 1976 to examine changes in ice cover. Data from the period of Due in part to its inaccessibility, relatively little is known about observation were extrapolated to represent the whole of the 20th the climate of Severnaya Zemlya. Measurements in the ablation zone century. It is reported that glaciers on the three main archipelagos in the of the Vavilov Ice Cap, on October Revolution Island, record a mean Russian Arctic have been shrinking since the early 1900s, although the July temperature of À0.78C for the three-year period between 1974 and rate of retreat declines with distance from the primary source of 1976, and an average of À2.78C for the short summer from June to precipitation in the North Atlantic. Govorukha et al. (1987) claim August (Bryazgin, 1981). Observations indicate that conditions are a reduction of about 500 km2 in ice cover on the archipelago between predominantly cloudy with frequent fog and that summer snowfall is 1931 and 1984 (on Bol’shevik Island, the ice margin has receded up to Ó 2006 Regents of the University of Colorado R. P. BASSFORD ET AL. / 1 1523-0430/06 $7.00 FIGURE 1. Map of Severnaya Zemlya showing the main ice caps in the archipelago. Inset is the location of Severnaya Zem- lya within the Eurasian High Arctic and the nearby Russian Arctic archipelagos of Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya. 2.5 km, and Kroshka Glacier on Pioneer Island and Morskoy Glacier second part, a ‘‘reference climate’’ for Vavilov Station is constructed on Komsomolets Island have completely disappeared). from meteorological data and used to describe the climatic regime of the Vavilov Ice Cap.