Retail & Office Market Analysis The City of Spruce Grove December 2017 Photos Courtesy of City of Spruce Grove, 2017 RETAIL & OFFICE Market Analysis City of Spruce Grove Alberta Suite 216, 9525 201 Street | Langley, B.C. Canada | V1M 4A5 | 604.888.6680 p | www.CushingTerrell.com Table of CONTENTS PREFACE .....................................................................................................................................................................i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................................ii 1.0 INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Scope of Study & Project Background .......................................................................................................................1 1.2 Report Structure ................................................................................................................................................................1 1.3 Sources of Information ....................................................................................................................................................3 2.0 LOCATION CONTEXT ..................................................................................................................................5 2.1 Introduction .........................................................................................................................................................................5 2.2 Regional Context ...............................................................................................................................................................5 2.3 Municipal Development Plan........................................................................................................................................7 2.4 Commercial Land Use Context .....................................................................................................................................9 2.5 Transportation Context .................................................................................................................................................11 2.6 Development & Building Permits ..............................................................................................................................11 2.7 Summary & Implications ...............................................................................................................................................13 3.0 RETAIL TRADE AREA ................................................................................................................................ 14 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................14 3.2 Population Projections ..................................................................................................................................................17 3.3 Household Composition ...............................................................................................................................................19 3.4 Age Profile ..........................................................................................................................................................................21 3.5 Income Profile ...................................................................................................................................................................23 3.6 Education & Trade Certification..................................................................................................................................23 3.7 Labour Force & Occupations .......................................................................................................................................23 3.8 Retail Spending Profile ..................................................................................................................................................25 3.9 Summary & Implications ...............................................................................................................................................27 4.0 RETAIL SUPPLY ......................................................................................................................................... 29 4.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................29 4.2 Retail Market Context ....................................................................................................................................................29 4.3 Retail Node Profiles .........................................................................................................................................................31 4.4 Future Retail Developments ........................................................................................................................................37 4.5 Citywide Retail Inventory .............................................................................................................................................39 4.6 Retail Inventory by Node ..............................................................................................................................................43 4.7 Retail Inventory by Category .......................................................................................................................................43 4.8 Retail Inventory by Class ...............................................................................................................................................47 4.9 Retail Space Per Capita ..................................................................................................................................................49 4.10 Summary & Implications ...............................................................................................................................................53 5.0 RETAIL DEMAND & GAP ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................... 55 5.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................55 5.2 Retail Floorspace Demand by Trade Area Segment ...........................................................................................55 5.3 Retail Gap Analysis Quantification ............................................................................................................................59 5.4 Retail Sales Inflow & Outflow ......................................................................................................................................59 5.5 Summary & Implications ...............................................................................................................................................63 Table of CONTENTS 6.0 CONSUMER INTERCEPT SURVEY (2015) ............................................................................................ 65 6.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................65 6.2 Respondent Demographics ........................................................................................................................................65 6.3 Preferred Shopping Locations ....................................................................................................................................67 6.4 Desired Shops & Services..............................................................................................................................................69 6.5 ALL Respondents Spending vs Importance ..........................................................................................................71 6.6 Respondent Cross-Tabulation of Spending vs Importance .............................................................................77 6.7 City Centre Perspectives ...............................................................................................................................................83 6.8 Summary & Implications ...............................................................................................................................................85 7.0 OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................... 89 7.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................89 7.2 Office Inventory ...............................................................................................................................................................89 7.3 Office Demand Forecasts .............................................................................................................................................93 8.0 CONCLUSION ...........................................................................................................................................