Final Report Gap Analysis of the Water Scarcity and Droughts Policy in the EU European Commission Tender ENV.D.1/SER/2010/0049 August 2012 Final version in cooperation with Authors : Pierre Strosser, Thomas Dworak, Pedro Andrés Garzon Delvaux, Maria Berglund, Guido Schmidt, Jaroslav Mysiak, Maggie Kossida, Iacovos Iacovides, Victoria Ashton. Contributors : Rafael Seiz Puyuelo, Gloria De Paoli and Kieron Stanley. WS&D Gap Analysis – Final report Table of contents Abbreviations .........................................................................................................................5 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................6 1.1 Background ..............................................................................................................6 1.2 Objectives of the Gap Analysis project .....................................................................6 1.3 Overall methodology of the project ..........................................................................7 1.4 The content of the report .........................................................................................8 2. Water Scarcity and Drought (WS&D): the basis for common definitions and understanding of key issues ....................................................................................................9 2.1 Basic concepts for understanding WS&D ..................................................................9 2.2 The challenge of apprehending WS&D ...................................................................10 2.2.1 Distinguishing Water Scarcity from Droughts: .................................................10 2.2.2 Measuring water scarcity ................................................................................11 2.3 The main causes and consequences of WS&D: review of evidence .........................12 2.3.1 Water scarcity .................................................................................................12 2.3.2 Droughts .........................................................................................................15 3. Selecting a methodology for undertaking the Gap Analysis? .........................................19 3.1 The approach. ........................................................................................................19 3.2 Scenario and modelling ..........................................................................................21 4. Question 1 - What is the magnitude of today’s WS&D problem in Europe? ..................24 4.1 Water scarcity ........................................................................................................24 4.2 Droughts ................................................................................................................26 5. Question 2 - What will be the magnitude of WS&D problems in Europe by 2030? ........27 6. Question 3 – Are the proposed measures to prevent, manage or mitigate WS&D situations in individual Member States sufficient to tackle the problems? ............................31 6.1 What have been the results of the measures favoured in the 2007 Communication on Water Scarcity and Drought so far? .............................................................................31 6.2 Do measures and support actions proposed by MS target the right issues? ............33 6.2.1 When WS&D is identified as an issue in a RBD, is action taken? ......................33 6.2.2 To what factors from the DPISR framework are the policy instruments responding to? And, what are the main characteristics of the policy instruments mobilised to tackle water scarcity? ...............................................................................34 6.3 Are the actions taken expected to significantly reduce future water stress to the horizon 2025? ...................................................................................................................37 6.3.1 Modelling the impact of existing measures on future water stress ..................37 2 WS&D Gap Analysis – Final report 6.3.2 Conclusions .....................................................................................................45 7. Question 4 – What are the main sources of uncertainty underlying the assessments and results presented? ................................................................................................................47 8. Question 5 - What are the current gaps in addressing WS&D in the EU? .......................49 8.1 What are the Gaps? Lessons from the assessments ................................................49 8.2 Conceptual gaps .....................................................................................................49 8.3 Information and assessment gaps ..........................................................................50 8.4 Policy, governance and implementation gaps .........................................................52 8.5 From the gap analysis to policy recommendations .................................................54 9. Question 6 – What are new policy areas and options for addressing WS&D in Europe? 56 9.1 Policy options for addressing water scarcity and droughts .....................................56 9.2 Policy areas and options for addressing water scarcity ...........................................59 9.3 Policy areas and options for addressing drought ....................................................69 9.4 In summary: crossing policy areas and policy options .............................................73 10. Question 7 – What are the potential social, economic and environmental impacts of proposed policy areas and options? .....................................................................................74 10.1 Water Scarcity Policy Options .............................................................................75 10.1.1 Environmental flows (E-flows) .........................................................................75 10.1.2 Support to Water Efficiency Targets ................................................................80 10.1.3 Economic incentives for efficient water use ....................................................87 10.1.4 Guiding land use to respond to water scarcity .................................................93 10.1.5 Trading water use rights for the environment .................................................97 10.2 Drought Policy Options ..................................................................................... 101 10.2.1 Drought Risk Assessment and Management .................................................. 101 10.2.2 Strengthening the European Drought Emergency Response Capacity ............ 105 11. Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 109 12. References ............................................................................................................... 113 Annexes .............................................................................................................................. 119 ANNEX 1. Key components of the methodology applied in the context of the Gap Analysis study .............................................................................................................................. 120 The WaterGap model .................................................................................................. 120 The measure/policy instrument database ................................................................... 122 Using the DPSIR framework for reviewing the causes of WS&D and for assessing the “adequacy” of existing measures ................................................................................ 124 Assessing the main sources of uncertainty and the robustness of results.................... 126 Describing key policy areas and options ...................................................................... 127 3 WS&D Gap Analysis – Final report ANNEX 2. Similarities and differences between droughts and water scarcity .................. 134 ANNEX 3. Assessing uncertainty in the context of the Gap Analysis project .................... 136 Assessing the adequacy of the WaterGap Model for capturing the complexity of WS&D. ................................................................................................................................... 136 Assessing the uncertainty resulting from the choice of the socio-economic baseline scenario ...................................................................................................................... 139 Assessing uncertainty linked to the assessment of existing measures ......................... 139 ANNEX 4. Environmental, Social and Economic impact assessment template for individual policy areas and options ................................................................................................. 141 E-flows ........................................................................................................................ 141 Efficiency targets ........................................................................................................ 153 Economic incentives for efficient water use ................................................................ 164 Guiding land use to respond to water scarcity ............................................................ 173 Trading water use rights for the environment