Strasbourg, 17 July 2008 T-PVS/Inf (2008) 6 rev. [Inf06erev_2008.doc] CONVENTION ON THE CONSERVATION OF EUROPEAN WILDLIFE AND NATURAL HABITATS Standing Committee 28 th meeting Strasbourg, 24-27 November 2008 __________ REPORT CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE VULNERABILITY OF BERN CONVENTION SPECIES AND HABITATS Report prepared by Dr. Pam Berry Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford This document will not be distri buted at the meeting. Please bri ng this copy. Ce document ne sera plus distribué en réunion. Prièr e de vous munir de cet exe mpl aire. T-PVS/Inf (2008) 6 rev. - 2 - TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON BIODIVERSITY ........................................................3 1 .1 Introductio n ...........................................................................................................................3 1 .2 Vulnerability ..........................................................................................................................4 1.2.1Exposure .........................................................................................................................4 1.2.2 Sensitivity ........................................................................................................................4 1.2.3 Adaptation........................................................................................................................5 2. VULNERABILITY OF BIODIVERSITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE .....................................6 2.1 Global ..........................................................................................................6 2 .2 Europe and EU ...............................................................................................7 2.2.1 Arctic .........................................................................................................................12 2.2.2 Mountains ........................................................................................................................13 2.2.3 Coastal zones....................................................................................................................14 2.2.4 Mediterranean ..................................................................................................................16 2 .3 National .........................................................................................................16 2.4 Species ..........................................................................................................18 2.4.1 Mammals .........................................................................................................................20 2.4.2 Birds .........................................................................................................................20 2.4.3 Reptiles .........................................................................................................................21 2.4.4 Amphibians ......................................................................................................................21 2.4.5 Insects .........................................................................................................................21 2.4.6 Fish .........................................................................................................................22 2.4.7 Vascular plants..................................................................................................................22 3. MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION RESPONSES ...............................................................22 3 .1 Mitigatio n .....................................................................................................23 3 .2 Adaptation ....................................................................................................23 CONCLUSIONS ...........................................................................................................................25 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...........................................................................................................26 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................26 - 3 - T-PVS/Inf (2008) 6 rev. 1. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON BIODIVERSITY 1.1 Introduction The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that w arming of the climate system is unequivocal, as shown by observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, rising global average sea level and changing patterns and frequencies of extreme w eather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat w aves and the intensity of tropical cyclones (Chaps 3-5, IPCC, 2007a). For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios. The best estimate for the low greenhouse gas emission scenario (B1) is 1.8°C ( likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and the best estimate for the high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C ( likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C) (Chap 10 Table 10.7, IPCC, 2007a). The greatest temperature increase is projected to occur over land and at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere and snow cover and sea ice are projected to decrease (Chap 10.3, IPCC, 2007a). It is very likely that hot extremes, heat w aves and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent and it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, w ith larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical sea surface temperature (Chap 10.3, IPCC, 2007a). Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likely in high latitudes, while decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions (Chaps 3.3, 10.3, 11.2 to 11.9 IPCC, 2007a). Observations from all continents and oceans show that many natural ecosystems are responding to regional climate changes, especially increases in temperature (Chapter 1.3.4-1.3.5, Rosenweig et al ., 2007, IPCC, 2007b). The responses include poleward and altitudinal range shifts of biota, phenological changes (such as the earlier onset of spring events, migration (see Climate Research Special issue on effects of climate change on bird migration, 35, 5-180, 2007)), and lengthening of the growing season), changes in species’ abundance and in community composition (Chapter 1.3.5 IPCC, 2007b), as well as changes in form and physiology (Reading and Clarke, 1999), reproduction (Crick and Sparks, 1999) and productivity. In Europe, of the observed changes in biological systems (terrestrial, marine and freshwater) 90% of significant changes are consistent with warming (Rosenweig et al ., 2008) This shows that some species are already adapting autonomously to current climate change, but it is also projected that the resilience of many species and ecosystems w ill be exceeded in the 21st century. These species may become vulnerable 1 if their adaptive capacity 2 is exceeded. This may be as a result of climate change or through a combination of this and associated disturbances or other drivers of global change. In this case, human intervention, through various adaptation strategies, will be needed in order to reduce species loss and the various options have been recently reviewed for the Council of Europe (Huntley, 2007). This review will examine the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on biodiversity (focusing on the Bern Convention's species and habitats) at the global, European, EU and country- level and will identify the most vulnerable species and habitats in the context of climate change, based on both the direct impacts of climate change and the adaptation and m itigation measures taken to combat climate change. The report also builds on the previous report to the Standing Committee which provides more detail on past, present and future changes, and adaptation possibilities (Huntley, 2007). 1 Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope w ith, adverse effects of climate change , including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity , and its adaptive capacity (Appendix 1 IPCC, 2007b). 2 Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences(Appendix 1 IPCC, 2007b). T-PVS/Inf (2008) 6 rev. - 4 - 1 .2 Vulnerability Vulnerability, as defined by the IPPC, incorporates the concepts of exposure 3, sensitivity 4 and adaptation 5 and it is usually a combination of these that lead to vulnerability. Species are already vulnerable to decreases in their abundance and range, w hich could lead to extinction, as a result of human activities, such as land use/land cover change, habitat fragmentation and exotic invasive species. On the short-time scale (1-10 years) many of these other pressures are likely to have a greater local impact on vulnerability, but climate change w ill increasingly contribute to longer-term stresses on plants and ecosystems (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003). Climate change, therefore, is not an isolated factor and an integrated approach is needed in order to understand how these contribute to vulnerability. Climate change poses a risk to human and natural systems. The risk is often considered as the probability of occurrence