Replication of Unimpaired Flow Calculations for Three San Joaquin Basin Tributaries in California’s Central Valley By AMBER PULIDO B.S. University of California, Davis 2019 INDIVIDUAL CAPSTONE PROJECT REPORT Submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE in Civil and Environmental Engineering in the OFFICE OF GRADUATE STUDIES of the UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA DAVIS Approved: Jay R. Lund, Chair Jonathan D. Herman Committee in Charge 2020 i Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Terminology ........................................................................................................................................ 1 2 Unimpaired Flow Estimates .................................................................................................................... 3 2.1 DWR Monthly Full Natural Flow (FNF) ....................................................................................... 4 2.2 DWR Daily Full Natural Flow (FNF) ............................................................................................. 7 2.3 California Central Valley Monthly Historical Unimpaired Flows ............................................... 7 2.4 Forecast of Unimpaired Runoff ....................................................................................................... 8 3 Reproduction of DWR Daily FNF Calculations: April 2018 and 2019 ............................................ 9 3.1 Procedures ........................................................................................................................................... 9 3.1.1 Data Availability .......................................................................................................................... 9 3.1.2 Daily FNF Equations ............................................................................................................... 10 3.1.3 Computational Procedures ...................................................................................................... 12 3.1.4 Stanislaus River .......................................................................................................................... 13 3.1.5 Tuolumne River ........................................................................................................................ 15 3.1.6 Merced River ............................................................................................................................. 22 3.2 Results ..................................................................................................................................................... 23 3.2.1 Stanislaus River .......................................................................................................................... 24 3.2.2 Tuolumne River ........................................................................................................................ 27 3.2.3 Merced River ............................................................................................................................. 31 3.3 Summary ............................................................................................................................................ 34 4 Summary of the Reproduction of DWR Daily FNF Calculations: WY 2009-2019 ...................... 36 4.1 Procedures ......................................................................................................................................... 36 4.2 Summary of Results ......................................................................................................................... 37 5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 38 A Excerpts from DWR’s 2016 Revised Report ..................................................................................... 39 B Turlock ID and Merced ID Daily Full Natural Flow Spreadsheet Reports, April 2018 and April 2019 .................................................................................................................................................................... 41 C Comparison Graphs for Stanislaus, Tuolumne, and Merced River Datasets, April 2018 and 2019 .................................................................................................................................................................... 47 References ......................................................................................................................................................... 53 ii List of Figures 2-1 Map of locations of full natural flow stations for the Stanislaus, Tuolumne, and Merced Rivers………………………………………………………………………………………………6 3-1 CDEC Daily FNF and Reproduced (Procedure 1) Daily FNF for the Stanislaus River at Goodwin Dam, April 2018………………………………………………………………………..24 3-2 CDEC Daily FNF and Reproduced (Procedure 1) Daily FNF for the Stanislaus River at Goodwin Dam, April 2019………………………………………………………………………..25 3-3 CDEC Daily FNF and Reproduced (Procedure 1, 2, and 3) Daily FNF for the Tuolumne River below La Grange Dam, April 2018……………………………………………...…………..28 3-4 CDEC Daily FNF and Reproduced (Procedure 1, 2, and 3) Daily FNF for the Tuolumne River below La Grange Dam, April 2019………………………………………………………….28 3-5 CDEC Daily FNF and Reproduced (Procedure 1 and 3) Daily FNF for the Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, April 2018……………………………………………………………...31 3-6 CDEC Daily FNF and Reproduced (Procedure 1 and 3) Daily FNF for the Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, April 2019……………………………………………………………...32 iii List of Tables 2-1 Recent and Historical Unimpaired Flow Estimates for California River Basins……………...3 2-2 Forecast Unimpaired Flow and Inflow Estimates for California River Basins……………….4 2-3 Summary of DWR’s Division of Flood Management FNF San Joaquin River Tributary Locations…………………………………………………………………………………………...6 3-1 Datasets Available Online for Stanislaus River Daily FNF Calculation……………………..13 3-2 Datasets Used for the Procedure 1 Stanislaus River Daily FNF Calculation (April 2018 and April 2019)………………………………………………………………………………………...15 3-3 Datasets Available Online for Tuolumne River Daily FNF Calculation……………………16 3-4 Datasets Used for the Procedure 1 Tuolumne River Daily FNF Calculation (April 2018)……………………………………………………………………………………………....17 3-5 Datasets Used for the Procedure 1 Tuolumne River Daily FNF Calculation (April 2019)……………………………………………………………………………………………....18 3-6 Datasets Used for the Procedure 2 Tuolumne River Daily FNF Calculation (April 2018)…………………………………………………………………………………...………….19 3-7 Datasets Used for the Procedure 2 Tuolumne River Daily FNF Calculation (April 2019………………………………………………………………………………………...….….20 3-8 Datasets Used for the Procedure 3 Tuolumne River Daily FNF Calculation (April 2018 and April 2019)…………………………………………………………..…………………………….21 3-9 Datasets Available Online for Merced River Daily FNF Calculation……...……………….22 3-10 Datasets Used for the Procedure 1 Merced River Daily FNF Calculation (April 2018 and 2019)……………………………………………………………………………………………....22 3-11 Datasets Used for the Procedure 3 Merced River Daily FNF Calculation (April 2018 and April 2019)………………………………………………………………………………………...23 3-12a Comparison of CDEC Daily FNF and Reproduced (Procedure 1) Daily FNF for the Stanislaus River at Goodwin Dam, April 2018…………………………………………………….25 3-12b Comparison of CDEC Daily FNF and Reproduced (Procedure 1) Daily FNF for the Stanislaus River at Goodwin Dam, April 2019…………………………………………………….26 3-13a Comparison of CDEC Daily FNF and Reproduced (Procedure 1, 2, 3) Daily FNF for the Tuolumne River below La Grange Dam, April 2018……………………………………………....29 3-13b Comparison of CDEC Daily FNF and Reproduced (Procedure 1, 2, 3) Daily FNF for the Tuolumne River below La Grange Dam, April 2019……………………………………………....30 3-14a Comparison of CDEC Daily FNF and Reproduced (Procedure 1 and 3) Daily FNF for the Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, April 2018……………………………………………….32 iv 3-14b Comparison of CDEC Daily FNF and Reproduced (Procedure 1 and 3) Daily FNF for the Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, April 2019……………………………………………….33 B-1 Turlock ID’s daily FNF spreadsheet report for April 2018………………………………..41 B-2 Turlock ID’s daily FNF spreadsheet report for April 2019………………………………..42 B-3 Merced ID’s daily FNF spreadsheet report (McSwain Reservoir) for April 2018………….43 B-4 Merced ID’s daily FNF spreadsheet report (McSwain Reservoir) for April 2019………….44 B-5 Merced ID’s daily FNF spreadsheet report (McClure (Exchequer) Reservoir) for April 2018………………………………………………………………………………………………45 B-6 Merced ID’s daily FNF spreadsheet report (McClure (Exchequer) Reservoir) for April 2019………………………………………………………………………………………………46 C-1 Comparison Graphs for Stanislaus River Datasets, April 2018……………………………47 C-2 Comparison Graphs for Stanislaus River Datasets, April 2019……………………………49 C-3 Comparison Graphs for Tuolumne River Datasets, April 2018…………………………...50 C-4 Comparison Graphs for Tuolumne River Datasets, April 2019…………………………...51 C-5 Comparison Graphs of Merced River Datasets, April 2018 and 2019…………………..…52 v Abstract In December 2018, the State Water Resources Control Board (State Water Board) adopted amendments to the Bay-Delta Plan that include flow objectives for the Lower San Joaquin River (LSJR) and its three salmon-bearing tributaries, requiring