A47 WANSFORD TO SUTTON A47 WANSFORD TO SUTTON PCF STAGE 3 | | 11/09/20 Notice This document has been prepared on behalf of Galliford Try by Sweco UK Ltd for Highways England's Delivery Integration Partners (DiP) Framework. It is issued for the party which commissioned it and for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or used for any other purpose. Sweco UK Ltd accepts no responsibility for the consequences of this document being relied upon by any other party, or being used for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission which is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties. This document contains confidential information and proprietary intellectual property. It should not be shown to other parties without consent from Galliford Try. A47 WANSFORD TO SUTTON Highways England Programme Leader: Highways England Project Manager: Galliford Try Sweco Delivery Integration Partner, Project Manager: PCF STAGE 3 Supplier: Document control Client GALLIFORD TRY Project A47 WANSFORD TO SUTTON Document title Document reference Revision history Revision Purpose description Originator Checked Approved Authorised Date Prepared for: Prepared by: Galliford Try Sweco UK Ltd Cowley Business Park Grove House Cowley Mansion Gate Dr Uxbridge Leeds Middlesex LS7 4DN UB8 2AL A47 WANSFORD TO SUTTON Table of contents 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Context 1 1.2 Existing scheme section 2 1.3 Current traffic issues 3 1.4 Scheme objectives 4 1.5 Current stage of the project 6 1.6 The scheme 6 1.7 Purpose of the report 7 1.8 Report structure 7 2. Summary of previous work 9 2.1 Overview 9 2.2 Model area and network 10 2.3 Modelled time periods 12 2.4 User class segmentation 12 2.5 Software used 12 2.6 Assignment procedure and generalised cost parameters 13 2.7 Model calibration and validation 14 2.8 Variable demand modelling 17 2.9 Previous PCF Stage 0-2 traffic forecasting report 17 3. Forecasting approach 20 4. Uncertainty log and forecast years 22 4.1 Introduction 22 4.2 Forecasting at PCF Stage 0-2 22 4.3 Forecasting at PCF Stage 3 22 4.4 Forecast years 22 4.5 Uncertainty log (local area plan data and transport supply data) 23 4.6 Modelled scenarios 25 5. Reference forecast demand 26 5.1 Overview 26 5.2 NTEM growth of car trips 27 5.3 NTEM growth of goods vehicles 28 5.4 Trip generation and distribution for modelled developments 28 5.5 Dependent development 30 5.6 Constraining to district level 31 5.7 Combined background and development trip matrices 31 5.8 Alternative scenarios 32 6. Forecast supply 34 6.1 Introduction 34 6.2 Do Minimum scenario 34 6.3 Do Something scenarios 35 6.4 Forecast network calibration 37 7. Equilibrium demand forecasts 38 7.1 Overview of variable demand response 38 A47 WANSFORD TO SUTTON 7.2 Demand modelling zone aggregation 39 7.3 Types of VDM response 39 7.4 Calibration of the DIADEM model 42 7.5 Journey time elasticity 45 7.6 ‘Pivot point’ method 46 7.7 Generalised cost 47 7.8 Convergence in DIADEM 48 7.9 Outputs from DIADEM 48 8. Assignment results for economic assessment 54 8.1 Introduction 54 8.2 Assignment model convergence statistics 54 8.3 Do Minimum variable demand forecast results 56 8.4 Do Something variable demand forecast results 57 8.5 Key statistics for the core scenarios 61 8.6 Sensitivity testing 62 8.7 Traffic flows 64 8.8 Journey times 64 8.9 Model constraints 66 9. Assignment results for environmental assessment 67 9.1 Required outputs 67 9.2 Speed banding 67 9.3 Use of WebTRIS data 68 9.4 Derivation of average annual traffic flows 69 9.5 Other required outputs 71 9.6 Speed pivoting 71 10. Assignment results for operational performance assessment 72 11. Conclusions 73 Selected validation summaries 75 Sectored demand analysis 79 Trip length distribution changes 103 Uncertainty log for the development zones 109 Stick diagrams 113 Link actual flow differences 117 NTEM v7.2 trip rates – car 130 Demand matrix growth summary table 133 Low and high growth outputs 134 Figures Figure 1-1: Package Location Plan 1 Figure 1-2: Location of Wansford to Sutton dualling scheme (outlined by the blue region) 2 Figure 1-3: Existing A47 / A1 interchange at Wansford 3 Figure 2-1: Wansford PCF 2-3 study areas 10 Figure 2-2: Wansford traffic model and the buffer area within the area of impact 11 A47 WANSFORD TO SUTTON Figure 2-3: Top line summary statistics 16 Figure 2-4: Extent of the cordoned Wansford model for Stage 1 18 Figure 2-5: Wansford Paramics model (network defined in red) 19 Figure 3-1: Flowchart of forecasting process 20 Figure 4-1: Major development sites identified in Peterborough local plan 24 Figure 5-1: A47 Wansford Stage 3 development locations in Peterborough 27 Figure 6-1: Wansford model Do Minimum coding change locations 34 Figure 6-2: A47 Wansford to Sutton dualling scheme with further improvements at A1 / A47 Western Roundabout 36 Figure 6-3: Highway network changes in Do Something compared to Do Minimum 37 Figure 7-1: Sectors 50 Figure 7-2: 2025 car trip length distribution – AM peak 53 Figure 7-3: 2040 car trip length distribution – AM peak 53 Figure 8-1: Actual flow difference – DM40 final vs DS40– AM (bandwidth 250PCU/mm) 58 Figure 8-2: Actual flow difference – DM40 final vs DS40 (pivoting to base) – AM (bandwidth 250PCU/mm) 58 Figure 8-3: Actual flow difference – DM40 final vs DS40– IP (bandwidth 250PCU/mm) 59 Figure 8-4: Actual flow difference – DM40 final vs DS40 (pivoting to base) - IP (bandwidth 250PCU/mm) 59 Figure 8-5: Actual flow difference – DM40 final vs DS40– PM (bandwidth 250PCU/mm) 60 Figure 8-6: Actual flow difference – DM40 final vs DS40 (pivoting to base) – PM (bandwidth 250PCU/mm) 60 Figure 8-7: Journey time routes 65 Figure 9-1: Count sites used to create AADT conversion factors 69 Tables Table 1-1: RIS performance specification and KPIs 4 Table 2-1: Value of time assumptions, pence per minute (PPM, 2010 prices, 2015 values) 13 Table 2-2: Vehicle operating cost assumptions, pence per kilometre (PPK, 2010 prices, 2015 values) 14 Table 2-3: Summary of model calibration and validation 15 Table 2-4: Wansford Paramics model base year specifications for Stage 2 19 Table 4-1: Classification of future impacts 23 Table 5-1: RTF18 goods vehicle growth rates from 2018 28 Table 5-2: Jobs per 100 sqm of GFA 29 Table 5-3: Average TRICs trip rates - A1 29 Table 5-4: Average TRICs trip rates - B1 29 Table 5-5: Average TRICs trip rates – B2 30 Table 5-6: Average TRICs trip rates - B8 30 Table 5-7: Balancing Area Descriptions 31 Table 5-8: Highway Reference Demand at OD Level – Core Scenario AM Peak 31 A47 WANSFORD TO SUTTON Table 5-9: Highway Reference Demand at OD Level – Core Scenario Inter Peak 32 Table 5-10: Highway Reference Demand at OD Level – Core Scenario PM Peak 32 Table 5-11: Core, low and high scenario definitions 33 Table 6-1: DM network assumptions 35 Table 7-1: VDM parameters / model response and hierarchy 40 Table 7-2: DIADEM logit parameters 43 Table 7-3: DIADEM distribution Lambda (λ) parameter values 43 Table 7-4: Outturn fuel cost elasticity by time period and purpose 44 Table 7-5: Outturn journey time elasticity by time period and purpose 45 Table 7-6: Generalised cost parameters (2010 prices) 48 Table 7-7: DIADEM demand-supply convergence statistics 2025 and 2040 48 Table 7-8: Sector system for VDM analysis 49 Table 7-9: 2040 highway demand (car only) % change between DM and DS - AM 51 Table 7-10: 2040 highway demand (car only) % change between DM and DS - IP 51 Table 7-11: 2040 highway demand (car only) % change between DM and DS – PM 51 Table 8-1: Post VDM assignment convergence statistics 54 Table 8-2: Primary model convergence criteria: final assignment 55 Table 8-3: A47 traffic growth in 2-way AADT 57 Table 8-4: Percentage splits on A47 traffic growth in 2-way AADT 57 Table 8-5: SATURN simulation network overall average speed (km/h) 61 Table 8-6: SATURN simulation network overall total travel distance (PCU.km/h) 61 Table 8-7: SATURN simulation network overall total travel time (PCU.hrs) 61 Table 8-8: Average speed (km/h) low growth, core scenario and high growth opening year 2025 62 Table 8-9: Average speed ((km/h) low growth, core scenario and high growth designing year 2040 63 Table 8-10: Total travel distance (PCU.km/h) low growth, core scenario and high growth opening year 2025 63 Table 8-11: Total travel distance (PCU.km/h) low growth, core scenario and high growth designing year 2040 63 Table 8-12: Modelled journey time results (unit: second) 65 Table 9-1: Motorway speed bands 67 Table 9-2: Non-motorway speed bands 68 Table 9-3: Motorway speed flow curves 68 Table 9-4: Peak hour to period conversion factors 70 Table 9-5: Global conversion factors 70 A47 WANSFORD TO SUTTON 1. Introduction 1.1 Context 1.1.1. As part of Highways England’s Regional Delivery Partnership’s (DIP), Galliford Try has commissioned Sweco as a lead consultant to undertake the PCF stage 3 - Preliminary Design assessment of six improvement schemes within the wider A47 /A12 Corridor Feasibility Study.