UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE Environmental and health benefits of airport congestion pricing - The case of Los Angeles International Airport DISSERTATION submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in Civil Engineering by Sheng-Hsiang Peng Dissertation Committee: Professor Jean-Daniel Saphores, Chair Professor Jun Wu Professor Will Recker 2019 © 2019 Sheng-Hsiang Peng DEDICATION To my parents and friends in recognition of their patience Don't Worry Be Happy Bobby McFerrin ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................................. vii LIST OF TABLES.................................................................................................................................................... ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..................................................................................................................................... x CURRICULUM VITAE .......................................................................................................................................... xi ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION .......................................................................................................... xiii Chapter 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1 List of abbreviations........................................................................................................................................ 6 Chapter 2 Literature review ............................................................................................................................. 8 2.1 Airport congestion pricing .................................................................................................................... 8 2.2 Airport emissions studies ................................................................................................................... 12 2.3 Epidemiological studies of airport operations air pollutants ............................................... 13 2.4 Aviation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions .................................................................................. 16 Chapter 3. Optimum airport congestion fee: model and data .......................................................... 23 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 23 3.2 Congestion pricing model ................................................................................................................... 23 3.2.1 Total expected arrival cost ......................................................................................................... 30 3.2.2 Total expected departure cost .................................................................................................. 31 3.2.3 The airport’s optimization problem ....................................................................................... 32 iii 3.2.4 The airlines’ optimization problem ........................................................................................ 32 3.2.5 Optimum congestion fee ............................................................................................................. 33 3.3 Optimum airport congestion fee: a special case ........................................................................ 34 3.4 Data ............................................................................................................................................................. 36 3.4.1 Total direct operating costs ....................................................................................................... 36 3.4.2 Social cost of emissions from aircraft engines and APU emissions ........................... 37 3.4.3 Global and country-level social cost of carbon .................................................................. 39 3.4.4 Summary of model parameters................................................................................................ 40 Chapter 4 Methodology and data for estimating and dispersing emissions ............................... 41 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 41 4.2 Study area ................................................................................................................................................. 41 4.3 Aircraft westerly operations ............................................................................................................. 44 4.4 Flight data records ................................................................................................................................. 46 4.5 Integrated assessment methodology ............................................................................................. 47 4.6 Discrete-event simulation package for R (SIMMER) ................................................................ 47 4.7 Aviation environmental design tool (AEDT) ............................................................................... 49 4.8 Air quality dispersion modeling (AERMOD) ............................................................................... 52 Chapter 5 Methodology and data for estimating health impacts .................................................... 56 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 56 5.2 Health outcomes modeling (BenMAP) .......................................................................................... 56 iv 5.3 Data ............................................................................................................................................................. 61 5.4 Monetizing health outcomes ............................................................................................................. 63 5.5 Sensitivity analysis ................................................................................................................................ 63 5.5.1 Aircraft engine type ...................................................................................................................... 64 5.5.2 Uncertainty analysis of health impacts ................................................................................. 68 Chapter 6 Results ............................................................................................................................................... 70 6.1 Health benefits of the airport congestion pricing ..................................................................... 70 6.1.1 Improvement of airport traffic ................................................................................................. 71 6.1.2 Analysis of results from imposing the airport congestion fee ..................................... 80 6.1.3 Air quality changes........................................................................................................................ 80 6.1.4 Human health impacts ................................................................................................................. 84 6.2 Health, climate benefits of congestion pricing with social cost of carbon ....................... 86 6.2.1 Simulation results.......................................................................................................................... 88 6.2.2 Air quality changes........................................................................................................................ 91 6.2.3 Human health and climate benefits valuation .................................................................... 93 Chapter 7 Conclusions.................................................................................................................................... 103 Appendix A. Simulation results from DES (SIMMER) ........................................................................ 106 Appendix B. The transition of queue ........................................................................................................ 109 Appendix C. R code for discrete-event simulation (DES) ................................................................. 113 Appendix D. R code for airport congestion fee ..................................................................................... 118 v Appendix E. ICAO definition of landing and takeoff (LTO) .............................................................. 124 References .......................................................................................................................................................... 125 vi LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1. Inter-arrival time distributions for departure ..................................................................... 26 Figure 2. Arrival queue model ...................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 3. Arrival and departure process in airports ............................................................................ 28 Figure 4. Study area .........................................................................................................................................