OECD Economic Surveys Hungary OVERVIEW http://www.oecd.org/economy/hungary-economic-snapshot/ This document, as well as any data and any map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. OECD Economic Surveys: Hungary© OECD 2021 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgement of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. 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Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at [email protected] or the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) at [email protected] of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 3 Table of contents Executive summary 8 1 Key Policy Insights 13 Leaving the crisis behind 13 The severe pandemic is countered by strong health measures 16 Economic prospects are improving 20 Growth is accelerating 29 Monetary policy has become more supportive 32 Financial risks require monitoring 34 Embracing innovation in the financial sector 37 Adopting a forward-looking and greener fiscal policy 38 Fiscal policy will remain supportive over the near term 38 Steps to address long-term fiscal challenges will be needed 41 Promoting more environmentally sustainable growth 43 Stronger domestic business dynamism is crucial for higher productivity growth 51 Corruption and lack of public integrity hamper business dynamism 55 An inclusive and mobile labour market is key for sustained growth 58 Improving geographical labour mobility 58 Strengthening female labour force participation 61 References 66 Tables Table 1. Macroeconomic outlook 9 Table 1.1. Macroeconomic indicators and projections 14 Table 1.2. The past recommendations on healthcare 20 Table 1.3. Events that could lead to major changes in the outlook 32 Table 1.4. The past recommendations on monetary policy 33 Table 1.5. The past recommendations on easing competition in the financial sector 37 Table 1.6. Fiscal indicators 38 Table 1.7. The past recommendations on fiscal policy 41 Table 1.8. The past recommendations on the pension system 42 Table 1.9. Illustrative fiscal impact of recommended reforms 43 Table 1.10. Illustrative impact on GDP per capita from structural reforms 43 Table 1.11. The past recommendations on greening growth 50 Table 1.12. The past recommendations on the business environment 54 Table 1.13. The past recommendations on the business environment and corruption 58 Table 1.14. The past recommendations on labour market policies 60 Table 1.15. The past recommendations on family policies and female career prospects 64 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: HUNGARY 2021 © OECD 2021 4 Figures Figure 1. Fiscal policy has been supportive 9 Figure 2. Environmental concerns remain 10 Figure 3. Productivity growth has been low 11 Figure 4. Low adoption of advanced ICT 11 Figure 1.1. The COVID-19 pandemic had severe health and economic impacts 13 Figure 1.2. Income convergence has gathered pace 15 Figure 1.3. Violence against women has increased during the pandemic 15 Figure 1.4. The healthcare situation worsened in the second and third waves of the pandemic 17 Figure 1.5. High bed capacity was not matched by similar intensive care capacities 19 Figure 1.6. Capacity reallocation may increase mortality from other causes in the future 20 Figure 1.7. Economy activity contracted sharply in 2020 21 Figure 1.8. Better-targeted measures in the second wave moderated the economic decline, with tourism as a notable exception 21 Figure 1.9. Government support averted bankruptcies 22 Figure 1.10. Production and confidence continue to recover 23 Figure 1.11. Employment growth was driven by the expansion of large firms 24 Figure 1.12. The labour market weakened temporarily as the pandemic spread 25 Figure 1.13. The short-time work scheme provided a relatively low replacement rate 26 Figure 1.14. Unemployment of young and low-skilled workers increased before coming down again 27 Figure 1.15. Wage growth outpaces productivity improvements 27 Figure 1.16. The labour tax wedge remains high despite lower social security contributions 28 Figure 1.17. Wage and inflation pressures remain high 29 Figure 1.18. Supply chain disruptions are slowing down the recovery of the automotive sector 31 Figure 1.19. Automotive products dominate exports 32 Figure 1.20. Monetary policy remains accommodative despite inflationary pressures 33 Figure 1.21. Bank lending is strong and the share of non-performing loans has fallen 35 Figure 1.22. Banks’ low profitability and high operating costs remain a concern 36 Figure 1.23. EU funds support many activities 40 Figure 1.24. Spending pressures related to population ageing need to be addressed 42 Figure 1.25. Green growth indicators have mostly improved 44 Figure 1.26. Carbon pricing score 45 Figure 1.27. An aging car fleet is increasingly based on diesel 46 Figure 1.28. Landfill taxes are low 49 Figure 1.29. Tariffs for water and wastewater services are low 50 Figure 1.30. Strong investment drove productivity growth before the crisis 52 Figure 1.31. Business dynamics are low 52 Figure 1.32. The insolvency regime is stringent 53 Figure 1.33. Occupational entry barriers remain high 54 Figure 1.34. Corruption is perceived as high compared with other OECD countries 56 Figure 1.35. Anti-money laundering measures should be enhanced 57 Figure 1.36. Regional differences in employment and unemployment are large 59 Figure 1.37. The minimum wage is relatively high 60 Figure 1.38. Housing supply adjusts relatively slowly 61 Figure 1.39. Nursery enrolment remains low 62 Figure 1.40. The gender pay gap is high for women in their 30s and 40s 63 Figure 1.41. Women’s work-life balance hampers their career prospects 63 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: HUNGARY 2021 © OECD 2021 5 Follow OECD Publications on: http://twitter.com/OECD_Pubs http://www.facebook.com/OECDPublications http://www.linkedin.com/groups/OECD-Publications-4645871 http://www.youtube.com/oecdilibrary OECD Alerts http://www.oecd.org/oecddirect/ This book has... StatLinks2 A service that delivers Excel® files from the printed page! Look for the StatLinks2at the bottom of the tables or graphs in this book. To download the matching Excel® spreadsheet, just type the link into your Internet browser, starting with the http://dx.doi.org prefix, or click on thelink from the e-book edition. OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: HUNGARY 2021 © OECD 2021 6 This Survey is published on the responsibility of the Economic and Development Review Committee of the OECD, which is charged with the examination of the economic situation of member countries. The economic situation and policies of Hungary were reviewed by the Committee on 28 June 2021. The draft report was then revised in the light of the discussions and given final approval as the agreed report of the whole Committee on 12 July 2021. The Secretariat’s draft report was prepared for the Committee by Jens- Christian Hoj, Martin Borowiecki, Federico Giovannelli and László Dósza with contributions from Shizuka Kato, Viktoria Kis and Thomas Weko under the supervision of Mame Fatou Diagne. Statistical research assistance was provided by Federico Giovannelli and editorial assistance by Emily Derry. The previous Survey of Hungry was issued in January 2019. Information about the latest as well as previous Surveys and more information about how Surveys are prepared is available at http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys. OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: HUNGARY 2021 © OECD 2021 7 BASIC STATISTICS OF HUNGARY, 2020* (Numbers in parentheses refer to the OECD average)** LAND, PEOPLE AND ELECTORAL CYCLE Population (million, 2019) 9.8 Population density per km² (2018) 107.1 (38.1) Under 15 (%, 2019) 14.4 (17.9) Life expectancy at birth (years, 2019) 76.0 (80.2) Over 65 (%, 2019) 19.7 (17.1) Men (2019) 72.9 (77.6) International migrant stock (%, 2019) 5.3 (13.2) Women (2019) 79.3 (82.9) Latest 5-year average growth (%) -0.2 (0.6) Latest general election April-2018 ECONOMY Gross domestic product (GDP) Value added shares (%, 2019) In current prices (billion USD) 155.1 Agriculture, forestry and fishing (2019) 4.0 (2.7) In current prices (billion HUF) 47 743.5 Industry including construction (2019) 29.5 (26.6) Latest 5-year average real growth (%) 2.2 (0.7) Services (2019) 66.6 (70.8) Per capita (000 USD PPP, 2019) 34.0 (47.6) GENERAL GOVERNMENT Expenditure (% of GDP, OECD: 2019) 51.6 (40.6) Gross financial debt (% of GDP,OECD: 2018) 97.6 (107.6) Revenue (% of GDP, OECD: 2019) 43.5 (37.5) Net financial debt (% of GDP, OECD: 2018) 61.0 (67.9) EXTERNAL ACCOUNTS Exchange rate (HUF per USD) 307.83 Main exports (% of total merchandise exports) PPP exchange rate (USA = 1) 148.01 Machinery and transport equipment 56.7 In per cent of GDP Chemicals and related products, n.e.s.