ure the size of age groups is undoubt- October 1948 BULLETIN, are based on At the beginning of 1949, slightly edly most reliable when applied to the estimates of aged population more than 1 out of every 3 fully in- estimates of aged populations. Aged made by the Social Security Adminis- sured workers was permanently in- persons are subject to higher mor- tration and described above. sured. The effect of the more liberal tality rates than younger people; in requirement for permanently insured estimating the number of persons in Workers With Perma- status at the older ages is illustrated the population, therefore, deaths pro- nently Insured Status in a comparison, by age, of the num- vide a larger “sample” of aged than ber of fully insured and permanently of younger persons. As a result, a on January 1, 1949 insured workers: chance variation of a few deaths An estimated 13.2 million workers among persons 65 years and over had permanently insured status 1 un- Workers fully insured 1 as of January 1.1949 (number makes less difference in a population der old-age and survivors insurance in millions) estimate than a like variation in the on January 1, 1949, an increase of 1.9 deaths of younger persons. million over the estimated 11.3 million Workers perma- nently insured Care has been taken to make the permanently insured workers on Jan- - - estimates of aged population as ac- Total uary 1, 1948. These workers can, re- Percent curate as possible. It is character- gardless of their future employment, Number of fully insured istic of these figures, however, as of qualify for primary benefits either most population estimates, that the when or after they reach age 65; in Total __......_.. 38. 2 13. 2 35 smaller numbers and the extrapo- the event of their death, their sur- Under57 ._.__._ -__- 33. 7 9.2 27 lated numbers are relatively less re- vivors can qualify for monthly bene- 57-64......-.....-.. 2. 5 2. 0 65 and over .._._._._ 2. 0 2.0 1: liable than other figures. Thus, for fits or lump-sum death payments. any given year, the estimates for A distribution of this estimated 1 Not adjusted to retlect changes in insured stat.us States with small numbers of aged total of 13.2 million workers accord- for (1) workers with combined earnings under co- persons tend to be less reliable than ordinated survivor provisions of the old-age and ing to the quarter-of-coverage re- survivors insurance and railroad retirement pro- those for States with large aged pop- grams; and (2) veterans deemed to be fully insured quirement for permanently insured only &s a result of section 210 of title II of the Social ulations. The estimates for 194’7 and status-that is, the quarters of cov- Security Act, as amended in 1946. 1948, which represent extrapolations erage necessary to be fully insured at for years for which mortality data age 65-is shown below: As the program matures, the per- were not available, are less reliable manently insured group will consti- than the estimates for 1940 through Workers tute a growing proportion of the entire 1946. Q”TP perma- coverage nently fully insured population. The pro- r;oy;e;r’ Year of attainment of age 65 insured gressive yearly growth of this group manent1y 0IlJaIl.1, Aged Beneficiaries of insured 1949 (in is indicated in the following tabula- status millions) tion : Old-Age and Survivors --~ Total- _____._____.___._._.... ..____ 13.2 Insurance and the Workers fully insured at beginning of year 40..--...- After 1956 (program in opera- 9.2 (number in millions) Aged Population tion at least 20 years). 6-39-....- Before 1957 (program in op- 4.0 eration less than 26 years). Workers permanently insured Twenty or more aged persons in &2X..- Before1949................--- 2.0 I I- -- every 100 living in Rhode Island and 24-39... After 1948 but before 1957.___. 2.0 Yea* Per- Connecticut in June 1948 were receiv- Total “Eh With 40 Total than 46 quarters ~$,~’ ing benefits under old-age and sur- The number of permanently insured q;fa;ders of cov- in- persons on January 1, 1949, classified wage vivors insurance. At the other ex- wage surrd treme, fewer than 5 per 100 aged per- by sex, age, and quarter-of-coverage ____--__--_--- sons were on the benefit rolls in Mis- requirement, was as follows: 1940... 22.9 0.6 0.6 -._..-.-- 2.6 sissippi, North Dakota, and South I 1941L.. 24.2 1.1 1.1 . .._ -._- 4.5 Quarters Workers permanently 1942... 25.8 1.4 1.4 _- 5.4 Dakota. This wide range in the bene- of corer- insored on Jan. 1. 1949 1943... 28.1 1.8 1.8 ._..... 6.4 1944... 29.9 2.3 2.3 --_....-- 7.7 ficiary rate largely reflects State dif- 1935... 31.9 2.8 2.8 -- _.... -. 8.8 .4ee at birt,h- 1946-e. 33.4 3.4 3.4 .__._.~.. 10.2 ferences in the proportion of employ- day in 1948 1947.. 35.2 8.7 3.9 4.8 24.7 1948-.. 36.8 11.3 3.9 7.4 30.7 ment covered under the program. 1949-e. 38.2 13.2 4.0 9.2 34.6 Table ‘7 on page 30 presents State data on the number of aged benefi- Total..... ciaries whose benefits were in current- The sharp increase of more than 5 payment status on June 30, 1947, and million in the number of permanent- June 30, 1948, as well as on the rela- ly insured workers from the begin- tive number of such beneficiaries in 1 About 1,048,0nr) of these !Forkers were in current- ning of 1946 to 1947 is due to the fact the total aged population. payment statu? at t.hc end of 1948. t,hat workers who will attain age 65 The aged insurance beneficiary ‘The estimates are based on data after 1956 could first acquire perma- through the calendar year 1946, derived nently insured status in the fourth rates, as well as the old-age assistance from the l-percent continuous work-his- recipient rates that appeared in the tory sample. quarter of 1946. In other words, they 2.4 Social Securify could then for the first time complete of coverage required to obtain per- ters had elapsed since the beginning the 40 quarters of coverage needed for manently insured status for those per- of the program. One year later the permanently insured status. sons in each year-of-birth group and workers needed 6 to 20 quarters of The number of older workers need- the actual number of calendar quar- coverage for permanently insured ing less than 40 quarters of coverage ters which have elapsed since 1936. status-those born before the middle to be permanently insured showed a At the beginning of 1941, for example, of 1882-could have acquired this steady increase up to January 1, 1947 ; only those workers who were born status. Thus, with each advancing since then the size of this group has before the middle of 1880 could possi- calendar year, up to the fourth quar- . remained almost stationary. This bly have acquired permanently in- ter of 1946, it was possible for per- progressive growth and subsequent sured status, since 6 to 16 quarters of sons in two new year-of-birth groups leveling off result from the relation- coverage were needing to meet this re- to be added to the permanently in- ship between the number of quarters quirement and only 16 calendar quar- sured population. London: The Labor Party. 20 pp. 6d. Recent Publications in the Field Summarizes the provisions of the act. of Social Securitv* HOUGHTON,DOUGLAS. The Family Cir- J cle: The Story of Britain’s New Age Social Security Administration General of Social Security. London: The DUN=, ETHEL C. Premature In- BINNS,K. J. Federal Financial Rela- Labor Party. 30 pp. 6d. fants: A Manual for Physicians. tions in Canada and Australia; Re- JXNICKE,WOLFGANG. “Refugees: Ba- Washington: U. S. Govt. Print. Off., port Prepared for the Government varia, 1947.” Annals of the Ameri- can Academy of Political and Social 1948. 401 pp. (Children’s Bureau of Tasmania. Tasmania : Govt. Printer, 1948. ‘74 pp. Science, Philadelphia, Vol. 260, Nov. Publication 325, 1948.) $1.25. 1948, pp. 108-114. $2. Brings together for the first time Relates the Canadian experience in Dominion-Provincial financial rela- Shows how refugees are assimilated the available information in the lit- into the Bavarian community and erature on premature infants. For a tions to Australian conditions and problems. economy. detailed description of this publica- “Lei OrgLnica da Previdencia Social; tion, see the back cover of this issue. COUNCIL (4~ PROFIT SHARING INXIS- TRIES. Proflt Sharing Manual, Con- Projeto No. 996, de 1947.” Tra- RASOR, EUGENE A. Long-Range Cost balho e Seguro Social, Rio de Ja- Estimates For Old-Age and Sur- taining a Digest and Analysis of Eighty-Four Representative Profit neiro, Vol. 17. Jan.-Mar. 1948. __1)~. vivors Insurance Under Universal 174-225. Coverage and Present Benefit Pro- Sharing Plans. Columbus, Ohio : Text of bill and explanatory mate- visions. Washington: Oface of the The Council, 1948. 647 pp. $7.50. rial on Brazilian social insurance pre- Actuary, August 1948. 34 pp. (AC- Discussesthe philosophy, econom- pared by the Committee on Social tuarial Study No. 27.1 Limited free ics, and operation of pro%sharing Legislation of the Brazilian Chamber distribution: apply to the Social Se- plans.