SRI LANKA TRANSPORT SECTOR POLICY NOTE World Bank, Sri Lanka FINAL REPORT Amal S. Kumarage 5th May 2012 Table of Contents ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................................................................ I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ II Objective ...................................................................................................................................................... II Background and Methodology ...................................................................................................................... II Analysis ...................................................................................................................................................... III Recommendations ....................................................................................................................................... VI Conclusions .................................................................................................................................................. X 1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background and Objective of Program ................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Scope of Work ..................................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Data and Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 2 1.4 Study Methodology.............................................................................................................................. 3 2 CURRENT TRANSPORT SECTOR PERFORMANCE ...................................................................................... 6 2.1 Historical Development ....................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Transport Policy Background ............................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Production and Trade ........................................................................................................................... 7 2.4 Status of the Current Transport Network .............................................................................................. 8 2.5 Post-Conflict Economic Development Programs .................................................................................. 8 2.6 Institutional Structures in Transport Sector ........................................................................................... 9 2.8 Investment in Transport ..................................................................................................................... 10 2.7 External Costs of the Transport Sector................................................................................................ 11 2.8 Reforms in Transport ......................................................................................................................... 12 2.9 Current Sector Policy ......................................................................................................................... 13 3 ESTIMATION OF TRANSPORT DEMAND .................................................................................................. 16 3.1 Current Demand for Passenger Mobility ............................................................................................. 16 3.2 Current Modal Shares ........................................................................................................................ 17 3.3 Motor Vehicles .................................................................................................................................. 18 3.4 Motorization ...................................................................................................................................... 19 4 ESTIMATION OF FUTURE TRANSPORT DEMAND .................................................................................... 23 4.1 Economic Development ..................................................................................................................... 23 4.2 Population Growth and Urban Development ....................................................................................... 25 4.3 Estimates of Transport Demand for 2021 and 2031 ............................................................................. 25 4.4 Future Modal Shares .......................................................................................................................... 26 4.5 Estimation of Public Transport Use .................................................................................................... 27 4.6 Estimation of Freight Transport .......................................................................................................... 28 5 IDENTIFYING FUTURE TRANSPORT GAPS .............................................................................................. 29 5.1 Road Network.................................................................................................................................... 29 5.2 Railway Network ............................................................................................................................... 34 5.3 Bus Transport Network ...................................................................................................................... 36 5.4 Para Transit ....................................................................................................................................... 37 5.5 Freight & Logistics Networks ............................................................................................................ 38 5.6 Summary of Main Issues and Gaps ..................................................................................................... 40 6 FORMULATION OF THE INTERVENTION SCENARIO ................................................................................ 43 6.1 Current National Land Transport Policy ............................................................................................. 43 6.2 Sustainable Vehicle Ownership Levels ............................................................................................... 43 6.3 Recommendations for Transport Sector Interventions ......................................................................... 46 6.4 Coordination among Transport Sector Institutions .............................................................................. 47 7 MANAGING MOTORIZATION IN METROPOLITAN AREAS ....................................................................... 50 7.1 Transport Demand Management (TDM) Measures ............................................................................. 50 7.2 Improving Railways in Metro Areas ................................................................................................... 52 7.3 Introduction of Rapid Transit ............................................................................................................. 57 7.4 Improving Bus Transport in Metro Areas ........................................................................................... 62 7.5 Highway Development in Metro Areas ............................................................................................... 64 7.6 New Multi Modal Passenger and Logistics Nodes .............................................................................. 67 i 8 IMPROVING INTER PROVINCIAL CONNECTIVITY ................................................................................... 69 8.1 Ports& Logistics ................................................................................................................................ 69 8.2 Airports ............................................................................................................................................. 71 8.3 New Expressways .............................................................................................................................. 73 8.4 Improving Existing Highways ............................................................................................................ 74 8.5 Improving Long-distance Railways .................................................................................................... 75 8.6 Improving Intercity Bus Services ....................................................................................................... 76 8.7 New Multi Modal Terminals .............................................................................................................. 77 9 CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................................................... 78 9.1 Evaluation of Intervention Scenario.................................................................................................... 78 9.2 Summary of Recommended Interventions ........................................................................................ 80 9.3 Sequencing of Proposed Interventions ...............................................................................................