PRIMAKOV NATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES (IMEMO) RUSSIA: ARMS CONTROL, DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMEMO SUPPLEMENT TO THE RUSSIAN EDITION OF THE SIPRI YEARBOOK 2017 Preface by Alexander Dynkin Editors Alexey Arbatov and Sergey Oznobishchev Assistant Editor Tatiana Anichkina Moscow IMEMO 2018 УДК 327 ББК 64.4(0) Rus95 Rus95 Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security. IMEMO supplement to the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2017 / Ed. by Alexey Arbatov and Sergey Oznobishchev. – Moscow, IMEMO, 2018. – 201 p. ISBN 978-5-9535-0535-2 DOI: 10.20542/978-5-9535-0535-2 The volume provides IMEMO contributions to the Russian edition of the 2017 SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. The contributors address the erosion of strategic stability regime, issues of multilateral nuclear deterrence, 2018 US Nuclear Posture Review, DPRK’s nuclear and missile potential, problems with verification of the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty. This year’s edition also covers crisis of European security, evolution of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, strategic relations between China, India, and Pakistan, Middle East conflicts and prospects of a Syrian settlement, and adjustment of the Russian State Armament programme. To view IMEMO publications, please visit our website at https://www.imemo.ru ISBN 978-5-9535-0535-2 ИМЭМО РАН, 2018 CONTENTS PREFACE............................................................................................... 7 Alexander DYNKIN ACRONYMS ......................................................................................... 9 PART I. ANALYSES, FORECASTS, DISCUSSIONS 1. EROSION OF STRATEGIC STABILITY ...................................... 15 Alexey ARBATOV Stability in the traditional sense ........................................................... 15 Ballistic missile defence confrontation ................................................ 18 New arms and strategic concepts ......................................................... 24 Multilateral stability?............................................................................ 32 Stability renewed .................................................................................. 34 2. PROBLEMS OF MULTILATERAL NUCLEAR DETERRENCE .................................................................................... 38 Vladimir DVORKIN Increasing risk of nuclear weapons use ................................................ 38 Approaches to reduce nuclear threat .................................................... 44 3. 2018 US NUCLEAR POSTURE REVIEW: NEW ACCENTS IN THE DETERRENCE DOCTRINE ................................................. 50 Natalia BUBNOVA Course on strengthening the role of nuclear weapons .......................... 51 Modernisation of the strategic triad ...................................................... 55 Low-yield nuclear warheads ................................................................. 59 Forward basing and non-strategic nuclear weapons ............................. 61 Focus on communication, command and control systems ................... 64 Cyberattacks are fraught with nuclear response? ................................. 66 4 RUSSIA AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 4. NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR AND MISSILE POTENTIAL AND SECURITY IN NORTHEAST ASIA......................................... 70 Victor ESIN North Korea’s nuclear programme ....................................................... 71 North Korea’s missile programme ....................................................... 73 Pyongyang’s goals ................................................................................ 77 Ways to overcome the crisis ................................................................. 79 5. ISSUES OF VERIFICATION OF THE FISSILE MATERIAL CUT-OFF TREATY ............................................................................. 83 Anatoly DIAKOV Baseline declaration requirements ........................................................ 85 The issue of including data on specific intended use of weapon-usable nuclear material ........................................................... 87 Declaration completeness ..................................................................... 89 Approaches to verification ................................................................... 90 Challenges associated with measurement uncertainty ......................... 92 6. BLUEPRINT FOR TRANSCENDING THE EUROPEAN SECURITY CRISIS ............................................................................. 97 Andrey ZAGORSKY Freedom of alliances and indivisibility of security ............................ 100 Arms race............................................................................................ 105 Non-aligned states .............................................................................. 112 PART II. EXPERT INSIGHTS 7. EVOLUTION OF THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANISATION .............................................................................. 119 Alexander NIKITIN The agenda of the SCO summits in Astana and Qingdao .................. 120 Key initiatives of member states ........................................................ 124 Priorities of the SCO .......................................................................... 129 CONTENTS 5 8. RELATIONS IN THE STRATEGIC TRIANGLE OF CHINA, INDIA, AND PAKISTAN ................................................................. 134 Petr TOPYCHKANOV Cooperation between China and Pakistan .......................................... 135 Nuclear and missile threats to India ................................................... 141 Indian response to threats from its neighbours ................................... 145 9. MIDDLE EAST CONFLICTS AND PEACE SETTLEMENT IN SYRIA ........................................................................................... 149 Stanislav IVANOV Relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem ....................................... 150 Increased role of Islamist organisations ............................................. 152 Key issues of the Syrian peace settlement .......................................... 154 Situation in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen .............................................. 160 Re-imposition of US sanctions against Iran ....................................... 165 10. ADJUSTING RUSSIA’S STATE ARMAMENT PROGRAMME .................................................................................. 168 Lyudmila PANKOVA Results of the modernisation of the Russian armed forces in 2008-2018 ....................................................................................... 169 Priorities of the new State Armament Programme 2027 .................... 172 Innovative and digital development ................................................... 175 Сivilian production in DIC ................................................................. 177 Financial parameters of GPV-2027 .................................................... 179 PART III. DOCUMENTS AND REFERENCE MATERIALS 11. KEY DOCUMENTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ON NATIONAL SECURITY, DEFENCE, AND ARMS CONTROL (JANUARY–DECEMBER 2017) ...................................................... 187 Sergey TSELITSKY Legislative acts ................................................................................... 187 Normative acts .................................................................................... 191 ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS ...................................................... 199 PREFACE 2018 marks the 25th anniversary of the joint project between the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences. From the outset the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security has included an important Special Supplement – Russia: Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security – that complements the analysis of the SIPRI Yearbook and represents the point of view of the IMEMO’s leading experts on key issues of international security and arms control. This year Special Supplement, as before, contains analytical chapters on the most acute global problems. Among them is the erosion of strategic stability, risks of multilateral nuclear deterrence, crisis of the European security system, situation in the Middle East region including the challenges of the Syrian settlement. In other chapters Russian experts evaluate the 2018 US Nuclear Posture Review in the context of nuclear deterrence, nuclear and missile capabilities of North Korea, problems with verifying the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty, evolution of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, strategic relations between China, India and Pakistan. Experts in defence economics may find interesting an analysis of the new Russian State Armament Programme. The last chapter traditionally contains an overview of the main documents of the Russian Federation on national security, defence and arms control (for the period from January to December 2017). The Special Supplement is a result of a major collective effort. Alexey Arbatov, Vladimir Baranovsky and Sergey Oznobishchev carry out the overall supervision of the project. Marianna Evtodieva is responsible for coordinating the editing and publication of the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook and its Special