UNDP, UNICEF and UN Women COVID-19 | HEAT Series UNDP,UNICEF and UN Women EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAINT LUCIA COVID-19 HEAT REPORT HUMAN AND ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF IMPACT Based on research conducted by Dr. Indera Sagewan www.bb.undp.org https://caribbean.unwomen.org www.unicef.org/easterncaribbean COVID-19 | HEAT SERIES COVID-19 HUMAN AND ECONOMIC COVIASSESSMENTD-19 HEAT Series OF IMPACT COVID-19 HEAT SERIES ANGUILLA COVID-19 HEAT Report- Human and Economic Assessment of Impact ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA COVID-19 HEAT Report- Human and Economic Assessment of Impact BARBADOS COVID-19 HEAT Report- Human and Economic Assessment of Impact BRITISHVIRGIN ISLANDS COVID-19 HEAT Report- Human and Economic Assessment of Impact COMMONWEALTH OF DOMINICA COVID-19 HEAT Report- Human and Economic Assessment of Impact GRENADA COVID-19 HEAT Report- Human and Economic Assessment of Impact SAINT LUCIA COVID-19 HEAT Report- Human and Economic Assessment of Impact SAINTVINCENT ANDTHE GRENADINES COVID-19 HEAT Report- Human and Economic Assessment of Impact Disclaimer: COVID-19 HEAT Series July 2020 The views, designations, and recommendations that are presented in this report do not necessarily reflect the official position of UNDP, UNICEF or UN Women. 2020 | UNDP, UNICEF & UN Women 2 COVID-19 HEAT Series ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Resident Representative UNDP Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean, Magdy Martinez -Soliman Representative UNICEF Office for the Eastern Caribbean Area, Aloys Kamuragiye Representative a.i. UN Women Multi-Country Office for the Caribbean, Tonni-Ann Brodber Technical Team Jason LaCorbiniere, UNDP - Lead Coordinator Maya Faisal, UNICEF - Coordinator Isiuawa Iyahen, UN Women - Coordinator Lyanna Harracksingh, UNICEF Debbie Budlender, UN Women Stuart Davies, UN RCO Gonzalo Fanjul, IS Global Shani Leacock, UNDP Melissa Bohne, UNDP The authors and technical team are grateful for the support of all individuals across various Government ministries, agencies and departments who provided data and feedback on the drafts. 2020 | UNDP, UNICEF & UN Women 3 COVID-19 HEAT Series TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................................................6 CONTEXT...............................................................................................................................................7 MACROECONOMIC...................................................................................................................................................................7 FISCAL...........................................................................................................................................................................................8 MONETARY..................................................................................................................................................................................9 CHANNEL OF IMPACT......................................................................................................................................14 EXTERNAL ................................................................................................................................................................................14 DOMESTIC.................................................................................................................................................................................14 IMPACT ANALYSIS...........................................................................................................................................16 MACRO IMPACT......................................................................................................................................................................16 FISCAL........................................................................................................................................................................................18 SOCIAL.......................................................................................................................................................................................19 RECOMMENDATIONS......................................................................................................................................25 ANNEX..............................................................................................................................................................27 2020 | UNDP, UNICEF & UN Women 4 COVID-19 HEAT Series COVID-19 MACROECONOMIC AND HUMAN IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR SAINT LUCIA INDICATORS VALUE Demographic Age Dependency Ratio (World Bank Stats) 2018 40% Labour Force (Social and Economic Review) 100,976 % of Labour Force Female (CSO Saint Lucia) 47.60% Population (CSO Saint Lucia) (2018) 178,696 Macroeconomic Gross Domestic Product (2018) (USD) 1,922,000,000 GDP Per Capita (Gov’t of Saint Lucia) (USD) 11,877.4 Expected GDP growth rate (Caribbean Development Bank) 1.5% Inflation (Caribbean Development Bank) 0.2% Fiscal Debt to GDP Ratio (Caribbean Development Bank) 65.9% Primary Balance (% of GDP) (Caribbean Development Bank) 1.0% Interest to Revenue Ratio (Gov’t Budget Estimates) 15% Social Unemployment Rate (CSO) 18.3% Unemployment (female) 18.9% Unemployment (male) 14.9% Poverty Rate (National Development Plan) 2016 25.1% Poverty Rate (female) 2016 54% Poverty Rate (male) 2016 46% Poverty Rate (children, 2016) 34.5% Number of school-going children (2017) 32,002 Note: All data is for 2019, unless otherwise stated. Poverty line of $6,443.0 (USD5.50 per day) Number of school going children is calculated from the UNICEF Situation Analysis of Children in Saint Lucia 2017 and broken down as follows: pre-school (3.342), primary (15,799), secondary (12,861) 2020 | UNDP, UNICEF & UN Women 5 COVID-19 HEAT Series EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, the Saint Lucian between -11% and -17% in 2020, depending on economy was projected to continue along its how quickly the tourism industry recovers. As a growth path that has been ongoing since 2016. The result, around one-third of the labour force is economy was forecasted to grow at around 3.2% in projected to be unemployed. Under these 2020, building on the 4 previous years of growth. scenarios, fiscal revenues will contract by between This growth was to be driven by the largest 37% and 46% and, with limited fiscal space and economic sector, services, more specifically the minimal options for redirecting expenditures, tourism industry, which is broadly responsible for national debt could increase to the equivalent of 65% of output. The tourism sector accounted for 80% of GDP. 50.8% of total employment in 2018. To mitigate the possible impacts of the pandemic, While unemployment has been on a downward Saint Lucia used a three phased approach: health, trend, nearly one in every five people remained out social stabilisation and economic recovery, detailed of work in 2019, with females (18.9%) more likely to in the body of the report. It's social and economic be unemployed than males (14.9%). Gender relief programme was launched on April 29th and inequity in employment is also reflected in the wage included temporary income support of between gap that places women’s average monthly wage at $500 and $1,500 per month through the National about 22%1 less than their male counterparts with Insurance Corporation (NIC) for contributors and women overrepresented in the lower income non-NIC contributors for an initial period of three paying sectors of the economy. There is also the months and set to expire in July; a moratorium on issue of occupational segregation that finds women bank mortgage repayments (principal and overrepresented in the services sector which is interest) for both individuals and entities for a characterised by lower wages and salaries. period of six months through September; suspension of all rent payments for six months for Child poverty is estimated at 34.5% of the child those occupying government-owned commercial population compared to 21% for the adult units; provision of direct support to local population (2016) and 7.8% of the poor covered by indigenous farmers to sustain their livelihoods, social assistance.2 among others. Saint Lucia managed to maintain a level of public As the potential for a global second wave increases debt below the regional average, with national and the return of tourism is likely to be protracted, indebtedness equivalent to 65.9% of GDP in 2019 this report makes a series of additional and the related interest payments absorbing recommendations to support the island’s social and around 15% of fiscal revenue. economic recovery, including the expansion of the agricultural extension services to provide Since confirming its first cases of COVID-19 March agricultural inputs to encourage self-production; 13th, the Saint Lucian Government implemented a the implementation and targeted delivery of a state of emergency, closed its borders and “family food basket” to provide support to the most instituted a series of curfews to contain the spread. vulnerable families; the expansion of the Disability These pragmatic actions were successful in Benefit to include adults and victims of sexual abuse containing the virus and ensuring that the health and gender-based violence; a strategy to designate impacts were arguably minimal with just 19 cases firms processing remittances as essential services; and no fatalities. and the expansion of home-schooling programmes to