TRAIL REGIONAL AIRPORT ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT PREPARED FOR: REGIONAL DISTRICT OF KOOTENAY BOUNDARY September 21, 2012 Submitted By: Wave Point Consulting Ltd. In Association With: Davies Transportation Consulting Inc. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................... 4 2 STUDY OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................... 18 3 DEMAND FOR TRANSPORTATION SERVICES ......................................................... 18 3.1 West Kootenay Demographic Trends ........................................................................ 18 3.2 West Kootenay Regional Economic Overview ........................................................... 19 3.2.1 Kootenay Boundary Community Profiles ................................................................. 19 3.2.2 Central Kootenay Community Profiles ..................................................................... 25 3.2.3 Regional Employment Income ................................................................................. 28 3.3 Regional Transportation – Nodes and Networks ....................................................... 29 3.3.1 Overview .................................................................................................................. 29 3.3.2 Highways & Airports ................................................................................................ 31 3.3.3 Discussion of Survey Findings .................................................................................. 40 3.3.4 Airports in Close Geographic Proximity – Comparative Insights .............................. 43 4 TRAIL REGIONAL AIRPORT: CURRENT AIR TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ............................... 46 4.1 Airport Operations & Infrastructure ......................................................................... 46 4.2 Scheduled Air Service ............................................................................................... 46 4.3 General Aviation Overview ....................................................................................... 48 4.3.1 Registered Aircraft ................................................................................................... 49 4.3.2 Charter & Company Owned Aircraft ........................................................................ 50 4.3.3 Recreational Flying & Flight Training in Trail ............................................................ 50 4.3.4 Air Ambulance Service ............................................................................................. 53 4.3.5 Wildfire Protection & Emergency Management ...................................................... 54 4.3.6 Aircraft Maintenance & Engineering ....................................................................... 56 5 ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS ............................................................................. 57 5.1 Methodology ........................................................................................................... 57 5.2 Input- Output Direct Economic Impacts .................................................................... 58 5.3 Collection of Benefits Economic Impacts .................................................................. 62 5.3.1 Air Service & Fares ................................................................................................... 62 5.3.2 Airline Costs ............................................................................................................. 64 5.3.3 Air Fares and Travel Costs ........................................................................................ 66 5.3.4 Assessment of Benefits ............................................................................................ 68 5.4 Social Values - Non-Monetary Impacts ..................................................................... 72 6 TRAIL REGIONAL AIRPORT: FUTURE AIR TRAFFIC ANALYSIS .................................. 72 6.1 Demand Scenario ..................................................................................................... 72 6.2 Influence of Air Service Competition ........................................................................ 74 7 AIRPORT OPERATIONS & INVESTMENT RISK ASSESSMENT ................................... 76 7.1 Benefits of Airport Capital Investment ..................................................................... 76 7.2 Airport Operations Benefits & Risk Framework ........................................................ 80 7.3 Trail Regional Airport Infrastructure Specific Risk Assessment .................................. 82 7.4 West Kootenay Regional Airport Discussion ............................................................. 86 8 CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................... 89 1 9 RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................................... 92 10 APPENDIX A – LITERATURE REVIEW ..................................................................... 95 11 APPENDIX B – AIRPORT GOVERNANCE MODELS ................................................... 98 12 APPENDIX B – EMPLOYER SURVEY ..................................................................... 102 13 APPENDIX D – TRAVELLER SURVEY ..................................................................... 111 14 APPENDIX E – ORGANIZATIONS CONTACTED ...................................................... 124 Table of Figures Figure 3-1 Trail Employment by Industry Sector 2006 .................................................................. 19 Figure 3-2 Rossland Employment by Industry Sector 2006 ........................................................... 21 Figure 3-3 Montrose Employment by Industry Sector 2006 ......................................................... 22 Figure 3-4 Fruitvale Employment by Industry Sector 2006 ........................................................... 23 Figure 3-5 Grand Forks Employment by Industry Sector 2006 ..................................................... 24 Figure 3-6 Castlegar Employment by Industry Sector 2006 .......................................................... 25 Figure 3-7 Nelson Employment By Industry Sector 2006 .............................................................. 26 Figure 3-8 Average Annual Income by Community 2008 .............................................................. 29 Figure 3-9 Highway Network ......................................................................................................... 31 Figure 3-10 Airports in South Central BC ...................................................................................... 32 Figure 3-11 Castlegar Annual Aircraft Movements ....................................................................... 33 Figure 3-12 Castlegar Domestic Aircraft Movements by Type ...................................................... 34 Figure 3-13 Castlegar Aircraft Movements by Power Plant .......................................................... 34 Figure 3-14 Heliports in South Central BC ..................................................................................... 35 Figure 3-15 Cranbrook Domestic Aircraft Movements by Type .................................................... 36 Figure 3-16 Castlegar and Cranbrook Aircraft Movement Comparison ........................................ 37 Figure 3-17 Spokane International Airport Service ....................................................................... 38 Figure 3-18 Spokane International Total Passengers .................................................................... 39 Figure 3-19 Spokane International Total Cargo ............................................................................ 39 Figure 4-1 Scheduled Air Service – Annual Passenger Traffic Trail ............................................... 47 Figure 4-2 Trail Regional Airport – Monthly Passenger Traffic ..................................................... 47 Figure 4-3 West Kootenay Registered Aircraft Population ........................................................... 49 Figure 4-4 West Kootenay Registered Aircraft by Location .......................................................... 50 Figure 4-5 Trail Flying Club Aircraft Movements ........................................................................... 51 Figure 4-6 West Kootenay Air Ambulance Traffic ......................................................................... 53 Figure 5-1 Pacific Coastal Service to Trail – Revenue, Fees & Taxes ............................................. 58 Figure 5-2 Direct Employment - Full Time Equivalents ................................................................. 59 Figure 5-3 Direct Wages and Salaries ............................................................................................ 60 Figure 5-4 Airport Generated Income to RDKB ............................................................................. 60 Figure 5-5 Air Service Summary – Southern Interior Airports ....................................................... 62 Figure 5-6 Southern Interior Airports Weekday Airline Capacity – Flights to YVR ........................ 63 Figure 5-7 Air Fare Comparisons – Southern Interior Airports to YVR .......................................... 63 Figure 5-8 Southern Interior Air Fares per Kilometre .................................................................... 64 Figure