IMF ADVICE ON UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICIES EVALUATION REPORT 2019 ABOUT THE IEO Established in 2001, the Independent Evaluation Of ce (IEO) of the IMF conducts independent and objective evaluations of the IMF’s policies, activities, and products. In accordance with its terms of reference, it pursues three interrelated objectives: ▶ To support the Executive Board’s institutional governance and oversight responsibilities by contributing to accountability. ▶ To enhance the learning culture within the Fund by increasing the ability to draw lessons and integrate improvements. ▶ To strengthen the Fund’s external credibility through enhanced transparency. For further information on the IEO and its ongoing and completed evaluations, please see IEO-IMF.org or contact the IEO at +(1) 202.623.7312 or at [email protected]. IMF ADVICE ON UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICIES EVALUATION REPORT 2019 ©2019 International Monetary Fund CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA IMF LIBRARY Names: Darius, Reginald, author. | Zhou, Jianping, author. | Pedraglio, Roxana, author. | Chen, Yishu, author. | Batini, Nicoletta, author. | Loungani, Prakash, project director. | International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office, issuing body. | International Monetary Fund, publisher. Title: IMF advice on unconventional monetary policies. Description: [Washington, DC] : International Monetary Fund, 2019. | April 24, 2019. | “This report was prepared by an IEO team led by Prakash Loungani and comprising Reginald Darius, Jianping Zhou, Roxana Pedraglio, and Yishu Chen; Nicoletta Batini joined the team in January 2019.” | Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: ISBN 9781498319058 (paper) Subjects: LCSH: Monetary policy. | International Monetary Fund. | Banks and banking. Classification: LCC HG230.3 .D27 2019 Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A. Tel: +(1) 202.623.7430 | Fax: +(1) 202.623.7201 E-mail: [email protected] bookstore.IMF.org elibrary.IMF.org CONTENTS FOREWORD v 1 CONTRIBUTORS vi ABBREVIATIONS vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1. INTRODUCTION 3 Context ........................................................3 Evaluation Scope and Approach .....................................5 2. IMF ADVOCACY OF UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICIES 7 Use of UMP to Support Growth......................................7 Risks and Side Effects from UMP.....................................9 3. ADVICE TO MAJOR ADVANCED ECONOMIES 13 Context .......................................................13 IMF Advice.....................................................14 Assessment ....................................................15 4. ADVICE TO SMALLER ADVANCED ECONOMIES 17 Context .......................................................17 IMF Advice.....................................................18 Assessment ....................................................19 5. ADVICE TO EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES 21 Context .......................................................21 IMF Advice.....................................................22 Assessment ....................................................23 6. FOSTERING INTERNATIONAL MONETARY COOPERATION 25 The IMF’s Role in International Policy Cooperation......................25 Spillover Analysis ................................................26 The Institutional View and Advice on Capital Flows .....................27 Reinforcing the Global Financial Safety Net ...........................28 7. FRONTIER CENTRAL BANKING ISSUES 29 8. INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES 31 9. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 35 Conclusions ....................................................35 Recommendations ...............................................38 IMF ADVICE ON UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICIES | EVALUATION REPORT 2019 v BOXES 1. IMF Advice on the Monetary-Fiscal Policy Mix After the GFC . 9 2. IEO Recommendations for Board Consideration .................... 39 FIGURES 1. Emerging Economies: Capital Flows ............................... 4 2. Selected Issues Papers: Composition . 32 3. Staff Turnover, 2008–17 ........................................ 34 ANNEX 1. List of Background Papers .......................................43 REFERENCES 44 STATEMENT BY THE MANAGING DIRECTOR 50 THE CHAIRMAN’S SUMMING UP 53 BACKGROUND PAPERS The following Background Papers are available on the IEO website at www.IEO-IMF.org. BP/19-01/01. IMF Advice on Unconventional Monetary Policies to Major Advanced Economies BP/19-01/02. IMF Advice on Unconventional Monetary Policies to Smaller Advanced Economies BP/19-01/03. IMF Advice on Unconventional Monetary Policies to Selected Asian Economies BP/19-01/04. IMF Advice on Unconventional Monetary Policies to Selected Emerging Markets BP/19-01/05. The Risks and Side Effects of UMP: An Assessment of IMF Views and Analysis BP/19-01/06. IMF’s Work on Encouraging International Policy Cooperation BP/19-01/07. Frontier Issues in Central Banking: An Assessment of IMF Contributions The following conventions are used in this publication: ▶ An en-dash (–) between years or months (for example, 2018–19 or January–June) indicates the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; a slash (/) between years or months (for example, 2018/19) indicates a fiscal or financial year, as does the abbreviation FY (for example, FY 2018). ▶ “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion. Some of the documents cited and referenced in this report were not available to the public at the time of publication of this report. Under the current policy on public access to the IMF’s archives, some of these documents will become available three or five years after their issuance. They may be referenced as EBS/YY/NN and SM/YY/NN, where EBS and SM indicate the series and YY indicates the year of issue. Certain other types of documents may become available 20 years after their issuance. For further information, see www.imf.org/external/np/arc/eng/archive.htm. As used in this evaluation report, the terms “country” and “state” do not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. vi CONTENTS FOREWORD n the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, central banks in the largest advanced countries innovated aggressively to restart growth and combat persistent deflationary 1 risks, while policymakers elsewhere were faced by spillovers from extremely easy global liquidity conditions. This report evaluates how the IMF responded through its advice to both Ithe initiators of unconventional monetary policies (UMP) and to countries affected by the cross-currents. Lessons from this evaluation are very relevant as monetary policy seems likely to remain a central policy focus, especially as the next global economic slowdown may well arrive with many central banks having very limited room for conventional easing. The evaluation finds that in many ways the IMF’s response to these issues at the core of its surveillance mandate was impressive. From the outset, it provided timely validation of UMP to central banks leading the way, while pressing for similar action elsewhere where monetary support was slower in coming. It monitored incipient financial stability risks from these policies and helped develop a macroprudential policy toolkit to manage such risks. The Fund also mobilized to analyze cross-border spillovers through new products, develop a framework for giving advice on managing ensuing capital flows, assist the G-20 in its efforts to promote greater international policy cooperation, and introduce new precautionary instruments to help deal with global financial volatility. At the same time, this evaluation also identifies some shortcomings in IMF engagement on UMP. Limited depth of expertise on monetary policy issues and rapid rotation on country teams impeded the Fund’s capacity to provide persuasive, cutting-edge advice tailored to country circumstances. The report also finds that the Fund could have done more to explore the merits of alternative policy mixes that could have limited side-effects from UMP, and that some countries feel that the Fund has not yet gone sufficiently far to appreciate the challenges emerging markets face from volatile capital flows. Long-standing limits on the IMF’s traction in fostering international cooperation and challenges to designing attractive precautionary financing instruments also emerge from the evaluation. The report sets out four recommendations aimed at raising the IMF’s game on monetary policy issues. I am glad that all of these were broadly endorsed by the Managing Director and by the Executive Board when it met to discuss the report in June 2019. Importantly, Directors concurred that the IMF needs to deepen its expertise on monetary policy, so that it can better leverage its comparative advantage in the analysis of alternative policy mixes and international spillovers, drawing on its very broad country experience. I look forward to more detailed decisions to move this agenda forward in the year ahead. Charles Collyns Director, Independent Evaluation Office IMF ADVICE ON UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICIES | EVALUATION REPORT 2019 vii CONTRIBUTORS This report was prepared by an IEO team led by Prakash Loungani and comprising Reginald Darius, Jianping Zhou, Roxana Pedraglio, and Yishu Chen; Nicoletta 1 Batini joined the team in January 2019. The external consultants were Laurence Ball, Eduardo Borensztein,