Engineering Economics Group (EEG) Capabilities Summary September 2015 | Atlanta, GA 1 Presentation Contents Introduction to SpaceWorks Engineering Economics Group (EEG) Capabilities Life Cycle Analysis Cost Assessment Operations Assessment Reliability Assessment Systems Engineering Commercial Assessment and Space Market Analysis Relevant Experience Exploration Cost Analysis Support Heavy Lift Propulsion Technology (HLPT) Studies Near-Earth Object Study Google Lunar X-Prize with Astrobotic, Inc. Lunar In-situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) Propellant Services Market 2 EEG Capabilities and Skills 4 EEG Skills and Capabilities Systems Engineering Non- Market Recurring Analysis Cost Engineering Commercial Economics Life Cycle Assessment Cost Group Operations Reliability SpaceWorks’ Engineering Economics Group (EEG) provides integrated and quantitative analysis of life cycle disciplines that complements advanced space systems design and development activities 5 Life Cycle Analysis: Cost Assessment Cost Assessment Capabilities Development, acquisition, operations, and overall life cycle cost assessment for all elements of a concept or architecture (launch hardware, test articles, facilities, ground equipment, etc.) Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of vehicle design selections and cost tool settings Programmatic guidance backed by quantitative analysis can also be provided, including realistic schedule recommendations, cost phasing, and reserve budgeting strategies Tools, Processes, and Databases Industry Standard NASA/Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM) SEER for Hardware SEER for Software TRANSCOST v8.0 NASA Instrument Cost Model (NICM) Internally Developed Stack’em Remix ICCCoM FGOA Descartes-Origins 6 Life Cycle Analysis: Operations Assessment Operations Assessment Capabilities Assessment of operability and affordability of expendable, reusable, solid or liquid vehicles using industry standard tools and an internally developed model Quantification of turn-around time, labor head count, recurring cost, and required resources for operational scenarios of interest. Optimization of the activity flow, people, materials, and other resources Tools, Processes, and Databases Industry Standard COMET -OCM LLEGO RMAT AATe Arena (for DES) Internally Developed Descartes-Hyperport 7 Life Cycle Analysis: Reliability Assessment Reliability Assessment Capabilities Quantitative assessment of key reliability and safety Figures of Merit such as Loss of Vehicle, Loss of Crew, and Loss of Mission Probabilistic analysis to estimate certainly levels and reliability margins Integration of results with life cycle cost analysis to calculate expected failures and cost of failure metrics Example Study: Lunar Exploration Architecture Reliability Example Study: Mars Exploration Costs Tools, Processes, and Databases Industry Standard Relex Itemsoft Toolkit Reliability databases and sources Internally Developed GT-Safety II Excel-based FTA and ESN tools Example Study: Rocket-Based Combined Cycle Vehicle Reliability 8 Systems Engineering Systems Engineering Capabilities Document and track program risks on 5x5 Serving as risk manager for program risks Providing model-based systems engineering expertise Analyzing and managing system requirements with traceability Example: RBS Pathfinder Systems Engineering Plan Tools, Processes, and Databases Standard Tools RiskNav MagicDraw Standard Sources INCOSE Defense Acquisition University DODI 5000.02 NASA Systems Engineering Handbook Example: Risk Management Process 9 Commercial Assessment: Business Case Analysis Business Case Analysis $75 M $50 M $25 M Evaluation of a proposed concept/architecture from a $0 M 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 business perspective and determination of criteria for -$25 M -$50 M financial success Firm A -$75 M (NPV) by Year (NPV) Determine Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Value Present Net -$100 M Return (IRR), Return on Investment (ROI), cash flows, -$125 M Firm B etc. -$150 M -$175 M Development and analysis of economic trade studies Year such as different demand scenarios, market capture analysis, financing options, etc. Tools, Processes, and Databases Internally Developed Cost and Business Analysis Module 2 (CABAM-2) Nodal Economic Space Commerce (NESC) Tool Space Solar Power Abbreviated Transportation Economics (SSPATE) Custom Financial Analysis and Pro- Forma Financial Projections 10 Commercial Assessment: Macro-economic Studies Macro-Economic Studies Capabilities General macro-level economic analysis and quantification of economic externalities Market size and growth estimation, basic industry research, and economic impact assessment Example forecasting and analysis of future markets including: • LEO payload delivery • ISS commercial crew/cargo services • Propellant depots with commercial resupply Tools, Processes, and Databases Internally Developed Orbital Satellite Database (SEI-OSD) Nano/Micro Satellite Projection Tool Manifesting and Payload Simulation (MAPS) Tool Orbital Satellite Forecasting Tool Custom Market Forecasts Launch Market for Normal People (LMNoP) SpaceWorks Sponsorship Calculator 11 EEG Recent Experiences and Applications 12 Experience: Exploration Cost Analysis Support In support of NASA’s Strategic Cost Analysis Team, SpaceWorks provided DDT&E, TFU, acquisition, and LCC estimates for various DRAs and potential exploration paths (Moon, Mars, asteroids, etc.) • Notable elements included surface habitats, landers, and aeroshells • Lunar campaign assessments utilizing international partners (e.g. ESA, JAXA, etc.) Developed Cost Research and Analogy Library (CoRAL), a database containing cost, performance, and programmatic elements for various space systems Lead: Dominic DePasquale, Elizabeth Buchen Customer: NASA LaRC / NASA HQ / NASA JSC Duration: 3 years Date: 2008-2011 13 Experience: Heavy Lift Propulsion Technology (HLPT) Studies SpaceWorks supported both the Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne (PWR) and Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC) teams during NASA’s HLPT studies. For PWR team, tasked to provide predictions for HLV development and recurring costs, reliability, ground operations, and facilities costs For OSC team, provided predictions for HLV development and recurring costs as well as facilities costs HLV concepts ranged from two or three stage configurations, with liquid or solid boosters, and clean-sheet designs vs. Shuttle-derived hardware vs. EELV-derived Lead: John Bradford, Elizabeth Buchen Customer: PWR, OSC (for NASA MSFC) Duration: 5 months Date: 2010-2011 14 Experience: Near-Earth Object Study SpaceWorks supported an internal JPL study that investigated a 1-year human mission to a Near Earth Object (NEO) SpaceWorks provided the DDT&E cost, TFU cost and development/production durations for all architecture elements A mixed methodology of cost estimating using industry standard software (NAFCOM, SEER), analogous historical and concept study data, and expert-driven cost equations was used Notable architecture elements included a Cryogenic Boost Stage, Solar Electric Propulsion Stage, and a Xenon Fuel Module Lead: Dominic DePasquale, Elizabeth Buchen Customer: JPL Duration: 1 month Date: 2010 15 Experience: Google Lunar X-Prize with Astrobotic, Inc. SpaceWorks assisted Astrobotic Technology, Inc. by analyzing and determining the commercial potential of future robotic missions to the Moon after an anticipated successful Google Lunar X PRIZE SpaceWorks provided an evaluation of both the development and acquisition costs of Astrobotic’s lander and rover Integrated financial projections were determined using SpaceWorks cost and revenue estimates Lead: A.C. Charania, Dominic DePasquale Customer: Astrobotic Team (Carnegie Mellon) Duration: 3 months Date: 2009 16 Experience: Lunar In-situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) Propellant Services Market SpaceWorks was selected by NASA to perform an economic analysis of a commercially operated lunar In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) facility The Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) was used as the resource for all NASA Lunar exploration activities The economic analysis focused on three major case studies, differentiated by the location of propellant delivery: Lunar surface, Low Lunar Orbit (LLO), and Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) Lead: A.C. Charania, Dominic DePasquale Customer: NASA LaRC Duration: 3 months Date: 2007 17 SPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC. (SEI) | www.sei.aero | [email protected] 1040 Crown Pointe Parkway, Suite 950 | Atlanta, GA 30338 USA | +1.770.379.8000 1 .